Last Monday was one of the most inefficient scoring nights Stephen Curry has ever had and the Golden State Warriors found a way to win. In an NBA Finals where it seemed like the Warriors needed constant greatness from their star, they got a stinker of a Game 5.
But there was Canada’s favourite son, the erstwhile “Maple Jordan.” Andrew Wiggins had the game of his life. It wasn’t just the 26 points and 13 rebounds. It was the championship-level defence, Jayson Tatum airballed three times with Wiggins on him in the fourth quarter. It was the aggression.
It was how he scored. It was downright demoralizing.
Yet, the Boston Celtics have more than a glimmer of hope. They have Game 6 at home and finally made some important adjustments on defence.
The Celtics just need to put it together on the offensive end. Whether they can is what picking Game 6 comes down to.
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Overall record against the spread: 35-27-1
Golden State Warriors (+3.5, +145) at Boston Celtics (-3.5, -165) – 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. on Sportsnet
Before we get into the on-court matchups and some tactics, a little trend analysis: In their first attempt to eliminate a playoff opponent, the Warriors are 0-3 this season, and just 2-4 in their last six series.
Boston is 4-1 in elimination games this postseason. And over the last eight NBA Finals, the outright winner of the game has gone 41-2-2 against the spread. Taking it on trends alone, I think the smart pick here is Boston (-4).
We can go beyond trends, though. Ime Udoka and the Celtics finally adjusted their coverage on Curry, guarding him the way I expected them to. They face guarded, they doubled more, they threw a hard trap at him more often, and it worked.
There’s a reason that those strategies have been at the core of nearly every postseason defence Curry has faced since 2015. It’s your only hope. You’re not going to beat the Warriors by getting into a shootout with Steph. If Boston loses this series, I think a portion of the blame should go to Udoka for waiting until Game 5 to do it.
But now that we’re here, I think Boston sticks with it. I’m staying away from Curry’s offensive player props because my head says he’ll go under a lot, but my heart says I’m going to feel like an idiot for betting on Curry not to score. I am taking the game UNDER 210, because the defence both of these teams have been playing is downright elite.
That adjustment had the knock-on effect of opening things up on offence for Wiggins, Klay Thompson, and even Draymond Green. You either mitigate Curry’s shooting, or you stop those guys. It’s near impossible to do both.
The glaring adjustment Boston needs to make is as simple as it is hard to execute. The Celtics needs to take care of the ball. In the playoffs they are 1-7 when they turn it over 16 or more times in a game and they are 15-2 when they don’t.
With stars Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart, Boston lacks a true ball handler, something the Warriors has taken advantage of. But that’s a pretty arbitrary stat. What’s important is the Celtics need to win the turnover battle.
So, if the game script in my head has Boston winning, let’s lay the juice and take Stephen Curry OVER 2.5 turnovers (-175). Curry’s usually good for one boneheaded pass per game, which is a great place to start.
I think that’ll correlate well with Marcus Smart OVER 1.5 steals and blocks (-135). I also expect a dedication to rebounding after Wiggins has spent two games embarrassing Boston’s bigs on the glass. So let’s throw in Al Horford OVER 7.5 rebounds (-135).
Since I had such great luck with it, and the books have mostly dropped Otto Porter Jr. back to 1.5, I like both Porter Jr. (-140) and Grant Williams (-145) OVER 0.5 threes.
Tonight’s Sicko Same Game Parlay pays off at +1200
· Boston Celtics -3.5 (alternative spread)
· Stephen Curry OVER 2.5 turnovers
· Marcus Smart OVER 1.5 steals and blocks
· Grant Williams OVER 0.5 threes
· Otto Porter Jr. OVER 0.5 threes
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
