The NBA playoffs are right around the corner and that usually means it’s time to start breaking down matchups and figuring out every squad’s path to a championship.
However, that can’t happen with a majority of teams still not sure where they’ll land ahead of the playoffs, despite there being just one day of regular season hoops remaining.
Only five squads are locked into a seed ahead of Sunday. The Boston Celtics at one, the Chicago Bulls at nine, and Atlanta Hawks at 10 in the East. Out West, the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks have secured the fourth and fifth spots, respectively. That means 15 of the 20 playoff-eligible teams are still trying to figure out where they’ll seed and how their post-season pathway will kick off.
Talk about drama waiting to unfold.
On Sunday all 30 teams will be in action, and 11 of the 15 games will have playoff implications. It gives plenty of teams some control over their fate as the chase for a Larry O’Brien trophy begins.
Complete clinching scenarios for the East and West are rather lengthy.
Here’s a breakdown of some of the action:
Top of the East
At the very top of the conference, Boston is 14 games clear of the next closest team (Milwaukee), but the No. 2 spot is still up for grabs. The Knicks are tied with the Bucks at 49-32 with the Cavaliers just one game behind them. Milwaukee is crawling into the playoffs with the health of Giannis Antetokounmpo up in the air, losing seven of their last 10 games.
Meanwhile, the Knicks and Cavaliers are in unfamiliar territory as neither squad has seeded as high as the two-spot in quite some time. Cleveland hasn’t done it since the second departure of LeBron James, and the Knicks are a decade removed from their last two-seed entrance into the post-season.
Log jam in the middle
Below them, the Orlando Magic, Indiana Pacers, and Philadelphia 76ers are all tied with a 46-35 record, and the Miami Heat just behind by one game. There are 16 possible scenarios of how things could shake out, determining which teams end up in the playoffs and who has to battle in the Play-In to earn their way in.
East Play-In
Outside of that, things are pretty subdued in the East when it comes to the Play-In. The Bulls and Hawks are locked into the Play-In for the nine and 10 spots — two teams that have mastered the art of being in no-man’s land when it comes to post-season contention.
Top six in the West
The top of the West is a much murkier picture as any of the top three teams can still grab the No. 1 spot. It’s the first time in NBA history that three teams atop a conference have an identical record after 81 games and a chance to secure the No. 1 seed.
Denver has the easiest final game of the three, taking on the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 13th in the West and have nothing to play for. Oklahoma City may also benefit by the fact that Dallas is locked into the No. 5 seed and may rest their stars as a result. Meanwhile, Minnesota will be taking on the Phoenix Suns, who are fighting to avoid the Play-In.
The Timberwolves will have some added incentive as they have an opportunity to secure the No. 1 seed for just the second time in franchise history. It’ll also be the first time since 2004 that they’ll finish higher than the seventh spot.
With seeds four and five locked up, all eyes fall on the final playoff spot in the West. Currently, the New Orleans Pelicans occupies the sixth seed as they’re one game ahead of the Suns. The Pelicans take on the Los Angeles Lakers, who’ll be battling for their own positioning within the Play-In, providing the Lakers an opportunity to help themselves while simultaneously playing spoiler. If Los Angeles wins, New Orleans falls into the Play-In and Phoenix moves up.
West Play-In
When the Play-In concept was introduced it was meant to incentivize teams on the periphery of the playoffs to avoid tanking, therefore providing late-season intrigue. No one expected it would turn into a gauntlet that would features the likes of LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and a handful of other All-Stars.
Outside of the seventh spot going to the lesser of the Pelicans and Suns, the Sacramento Kings, Lakers, and Golden State Warriors are all locked into the Play-In. Where they’ll be seeded between 8-10 heading into it is still to be determined. The Lakers are currently one game ahead of the other two with a 46-35 record, holding onto the eighth spot, but if they lose on Sunday, they can drop down as far as 10.
Finishing higher in the Play-In seeding matters, not just for hosting purposes, but the seventh and eighth seeds get two opportunities to secure their post-season spot, win or lose. For nine and 10, a loss means their season is over.
If facing the top teams in the West as a reward for getting out of the Play-In wasn’t hard enough, doing it after battling some of the league’s premier talent will be even more of a challenge, and we’ll be here watching it all go down.
All this uncertainty is a welcomed change for most basketball fans. Much of the talk over the last couple of seasons has revolved around the NBA season feeling too long and how games turn meaningless toward the closing stretch.
This year, the final stretch doesn’t have any of that dragged-out feeling or the risk of players sitting out to rest for the playoffs. With seeding, matchups and home-court advantage still up for grabs all over the board, the action ought to be non-stop.
Last season we saw the idea of the Play-In tournament finally bear fruit as the seventh-seed Lakers made an unexpected conference finals run out West and the Miami Heat, as the No. 8 seed, became the first team to get out of the Play-In and go all the way to an NBA Finals.
With how much movement and shuffling has gone on throughout the season, things feel ripe for another underdog run, setting up an NBA post-season full of intrigue.
