The NBA knows how to deliver drama — both on and off the court. And after another eventful off-season, there are no shortage of storylines to follow as the 2023-24 season tips off on Tuesday night.
Michael Grange and Blake Murphy have you covered from A(debayo) to Z(ion), with a look at 24 players — in no particular order — who will define this new NBA season.
James Harden: If the bearded one dominates the regular season — wherever he plays — like he did the off-season, the Philadelphia 76ers or maybe the Los Angeles Clippers will be in pretty good shape. Ever since Harden logged his trade demand and put Sixers general Daryl Morey on blast for failing to either sign him to a long-term deal that he felt he was owed or trade him to the destination of his choice, what Harden’s stand might mean for the Sixers or anyone else has been one the biggest questions heading into the season. Harden’s not the force that led the NBA in scoring for three straight years in his Houston prime, but he did lead the league in assists last season and is still capable of lifting an offence. Any offence. Which offence Harden ends up attaching himself to could end up shaping the Eastern or Western Conference. — MG
Damian Lillard: Few players not named Steph Curry have the ability to bend a defence the way the newest Milwaukee Buck can. One of them — in a very different way — is Giannis Antetokounmpo, Lillard’s superstar teammate who collapses defences at the rim with the same ruthless efficiency that Lillard splinters them on the perimeter. When the Bucks came out of nowhere on the eve of training camp and convinced the Portland Trail Blazers to trade their disgruntled franchise star, it instantly gave both Milwaukee superstars the most accomplished teammate the other has ever had. On paper, they should be the most lethal two-man combination in the league. But on the wood, Lillard will have to show that his defensive shortcomings can be mitigated on a championship contender, and that he can share billing in the biggest moments. — MG
Bam Adebayo: The Miami Heat haven’t got much pre-season buzz for a team that has been to the NBA Finals twice in the last four seasons and the Eastern Conference Finals three times in that stretch. Not landing Lillard is probably reason for that, and losing role players Max Strus and Gabe Vincent in free agency a likely factor, too. But the Heat still have Adebayo, quite possibly the best overall defender in the NBA and the only member of the Heat’s core who, at age 26, still has considerable upside to his overall game after averaging a career-best 20.4 points a night last season. If Adebayo’s offence expands again and Jimmy Butler can extend his prime just a little longer, the Heat remain a threat to emerge from the East. — MG
Victor Wembanyama: The race for most highlights on social media will not be particularly close this year. Short of someone finding a three-armed player, Wemby will be the most must-watch figure since Zion’s rookie year. With his height, length, defensive instincts and skill, he is going to do things night-to-night that we previously thought were impossible, or never even thought to consider whatsoever. Historically, top picks coming from good pro environments actually do pretty well out of the gate. Maybe you have concerns about the NBA’s physicality and the lack of pieces around him, and that would be reasonable; the Spurs won’t win a lot … yet. He’s still the most interesting player in the league, and the Spurs’ path back to relevance — armed with a few other nice young pieces and unspeakable cap space — might not be as long as most rebuilding teams. — BM
Jamal Murray: The Larry O’Brien Trophy was not allowed to visit Kitchener, Ontario, this offseason due to the Nuggets enforcing a policy that they mistakenly claim existed for other teams in the past. The Larry visited Kitchener with Raptors assistant coach John Bennett in 2019. Maybe they just didn’t want Jamal riding the moose outside Moose Winooski’s with the Larry in hand? The only solution here is to win another NBA Championship and make a proper K-W Day of it in 2024. Everything Nuggets flows through Nikola Jokic, but Murray is the perfect counterpart, and he has an even higher ceiling to tap into. We saw in the playoffs how Murray was able to shapeshift his role and score even more as Jokic’s No. 2, and over 82 games there should be ample opportunity to push his stat line higher. Still not that far removed from an ACL tear, Murray is headed for his first All-Star berth and, we can hope, the Olympics. — BM
Pascal Siakam: There aren’t many questions about who Siakam is as a player at this point. He’s been an All-Star, an All-NBA player, and a high-end supporting piece on a championship team. Through it all, he’s been able to massage his role to suit the needs of the evolving roster around him. That it hasn’t worked at the team level wasn’t the fault of Siakam, unless you’re keen to criticize him for late-game execution (which is fair, just keep in mind the offensive environment and him leading the league in minutes and miles traveled in consecutive years). This year, the challenge is once again optimizing his game around change, as more responsibility flows to Scottie Barnes. Barnes is primed for a big year, and he and Siakam have shown a tremendous chemistry in preseason. The Raptors appear to be waiting to make sure that’s legitimate before giving Siakam his max extension. If there’s any doubt about the fit, Toronto’s willingness to sign that deal, or Siakam’s willingness to take it, then Siakam becomes the single most interesting trade piece at the deadline. The Raptors would surely likely to avoid that … so what are we waiting for? Something still feels slightly amiss there. — BM
Kawhi Leonard: He remains one of the most devastating forces in basketball. Consider last season’s playoff ‘run’ with the Los Angeles Clippers where Leonard averaged 34.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists while shooting 60 per cent from three. It’s hard to play the game better. The only problem? Leonard only played two games before being shut down with yet another knee issue. In the 2021-22 playoffs, Leonard looked ready to carry a championship team on his shoulders like he had in Toronto in 2018-19 but tore his ACL and missed all of the following season. Leonard is in Year 4 in Los Angeles and doesn’t have a ring to show for it, yet. Time may be running out on one of the greatest shows in sports. — MG
Ja Morant: Will the 24-year-old Memphis Grizzlies star figure out that being a public figure and a franchise player comes with certain responsibilities and expectations, and that making good off-court choices could be the difference between him becoming — literally — a billionaire and being simply a tantalizing talent who couldn’t cope with the burdens of modern stardom? Morant will have the first 25 games of the season to think about that as he sits out an NBA suspension for his habit of streaming himself doing questionable things on social media, among other issues. If he does figure things out, the Grizzlies should resume their ascent as one of the best young teams in the game. No one wants to think about the possibilities if he doesn’t. — MG
LaMelo Ball: Could the Charlotte Hornets be sneaky good this season? The easy answer when it comes to Charlotte and ‘good’ is … no. But it was just two years ago the Hornets — led by then 20-year-old Ball — won 42 games and snuck into the play-in tournament. Everything went wrong last season and the Hornets slipped to 27 wins, the biggest single factor likely being Ball playing just 36 games due to injury. Ball is heading into Year 4 of his career at just 22 years old, and if he can stay on the floor long enough to ignite an offence the way few can with his combination of passing and long-range shooting, he raises Charlotte’s ceiling considerably. With new ownership, some intriguing young talent in rookie Brandon Miller and second-year centre Mark Williams along with some vets who still have some mileage left, Charlotte could be ‘good’ again, but it all depends on Ball. — MG
Fred VanVleet: A cautionary tale for the Raptors in their Siakam situation, Toronto opted not to trade VanVleet for (reportedly) middling returns, then saw him walk as a UFA without managing a sign-and-trade on the way out. VanVleet’s annual salary is gaudy and highlights just how much cap space Houston had to add pieces around their still-far-away young core. But it’s a two-year deal with a team option for a third, and if nothing else, VanVleet can soak up a lot of possessions while letting the young backcourt pieces develop. And on the upside, if any of the youngsters take a leap earlier than expected, VanVleet and Dillon Brooks are flexible pieces who defend like hell and can shift their offensive role. VanVleet delivering on Year 1 of his deal might have Houston something close to 30-32 wins; it’s all about how ready he can help the Rockets get for a splashier 2024. — BM
Jimmy Butler: Butler has already done the most important thing any NBA player will do this season: making it acceptable for a man to show up to work with emo bangs and lip piercings. (Personally, I was a labret piercing and mohawk guy, but I appreciate it nonetheless). On the court, the question is the same as it’s been for the entirety of Butler’s Miami tenure: Playoff Jimmy is undoubtable, but how do you make sure you get to the dance in the first place? Butler, Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love are all a year older. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus got their Heat Culture payday and Miami will now try to turn Jamal Cain, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic, and Dru Smith into the next versions. This is what they do, and Bam Adebayo being better can’t be ruled out. Still, the Heat figure to need another All-NBA season from Butler if they’re going to turn the playoffs into a Red-and-Black Parade. — BM
Zion Williamson: How do you bet the Pelicans? How do you project them? How do you even build the roster around a superstar who has played 114 games over his four seasons in the league? When Williamson plays, the Pelicans have been good, winning at a 48-win pace in his 29 games last year. Williamson’s impact ranked 16th in the league on a per-possession basis, according to EPM, and that is after regressing his performance due to the smaller size of the sample. He’s really, really good! If he plays 65 games, the Pelicans could challenge the suddenly-thin Grizzlies for a division title. He’s in Year 1 of a five-year max, so there’s time for the Pelicans in theory, but it really does feel like an important year for determining what a Zion core looks like. One of the most impactful and most exciting players in the league is something we all need to see more of. — BM
Anthony Davis: The last time Davis played 75 games in a season, he averaged a career-high 28.1 points to go along with 11 rebounds, 2.6 blocks and 1.5 steals per game as he led an exceedingly ordinary New Orleans Pelicans club to 48 wins and a first-round sweep of the Trail Blazers. He was third in MVP voting and seemed poised to dominate the NBA for the decade to come. Since that 2017-18 season, Davis has seen fellow big men Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid dominate the MVP discussion as he has struggled to stay healthy, the Lakers’ run to the 2020 NBA title in the bubble aside. Los Angeles needs Davis to crash that party if they are going to squeeze one more title out of late-career LeBron James, who is more than ready to be the second-best player on his team for once. It all starts with Davis being able to stay on the floor. — MG
Devin Booker: The Phoenix Suns have been arguably the NBA’s splashiest team in the past 12 months or so, adding Kevin Durant at the trade deadline a year ago and trading Chris Paul for Bradley Beal in the off-season to create a new — and very expensive — ‘Big Three’ that new owner Mat Ishbia hopes will bring an NBA championship to the Valley of the Sun for the first time. But make no mistake, the Suns’ most important player is the one who was there all along as Booker has turned himself into one of the NBA’s most productive multi-taskers. The soon-to-be 27-year-old capped the best regular season of his career by posting 33.7 points, 7.2 assists and 1.7 steals with a Steph Curry-like level of offensive efficiency in the playoffs before the Suns lost to the eventual champion Nuggets in the second round. The Suns are gunning for the title, but after all that splash, Booker might need to be their MVP. — MG
Anthony Edwards: Can ANT have another breakout season? By any measure, he had one in 2022-23 as the Minnesota Timberwolves’ powerhouse earned all-star recognition for the first time in his third season, averaging 24.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists and going for 31-5-5 in a hard-fought first-round loss to Denver. But this version of the T-Wolves was not assembled to be a one-round-and-out team. They have been all-in since they traded for Rudy Gobert in the summer of 2022. But for them to make noise in the very deep Western Conference, it looks like it’s going to have to be Edwards to lead them, rather than incumbent star Karl-Anthony Towns who has been supplanted as the T-Wolves’ No.1 option. Doing it will require another breakout season with Edwards putting himself in the All-NBA — and maybe even MVP — conversation. He’s capable. — MG
Cade Cunningham: I’m a believer that the league’s Most Improved Player Award should have a couple of caveats. For one, there should be a Comeback Player of the Year Award for guys coming off a lost year. For another, top picks who are just making the natural progression you’d expect from a top pick don’t feel like they’re in the spirit of the award. I don’t make the rules, though, and I don’t have a vote, so get ready for Cunningham to win the league’s MIP in his third year. The Pistons aren’t going to be good — even an historic jump in wins would still have them well-below .500 — but they’re reaching a point where being as bad as possible is no longer the point, and they have some fun pieces around Cunningham. For his part, Cunningham might be slept on just a touch right now considering how shaky his first two seasons have been. He is immensely talented, the shooting looks better, and he has legitimate players to pass to now. — BM
Chet Holmgren: The Thunder made a 16-win jump last year, saw Shai Gilgeous-Alexander receive MVP votes, and grew more certain about the potential of names like Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey and Lu Dort. They could have carved out significant cap space to supplement a core that only had one player over the age of 24 in their rotation last year (the always-likeable Kenrich Williams). So why didn’t they push their chips in? Holmgren is the answer, as in addition to Sam Presti’s pick-hoarding patience, how Holmgren fits and how high his upside looks will inform what the correct win-now move is when the time comes. The Thunder obviously believe the No. 2 pick from 2022 is the real deal, a 7-footer gifted at both ends who had a redshirt year to get healthy and focus intensely on player development. Holmgren pushing Wembanyama for Rookie of the Year would give us another unfortunate Mitchell-Simmons debate but also lay clear how close the Thunder are (or are not). — BM
Kyrie Irving: Luka Doncic is 24, has made four All-NBA teams already, and has received MVP votes in each of the last four seasons. It would feel like a tremendously wasted early prime if Doncic and the Mavericks didn’t at some point have another deep playoff run. They have consistently tinkered to try to find the right mix around Doncic and, for better or worse, think Irving can be the right running mate. It’s a real risk. The offensive fit is incredible, but the Mavericks were under .500 when the duo played together last year and Irving isn’t exactly known for his defensive consistency or overall availability. With Irving now under a three-year, $120-million deal that expires right as Doncic can opt out, the Mavericks need the very best version of Irving, which is a 30-point scoring, clutch-shot-making, ankle-breaking offensive dynamo. — BM
Max Strus: A role player changing teams isn’t normally a potentially season-altering storyline, but the Cleveland Cavaliers are a franchise that normally flies under the radar, so it fits that their key off-season move was more subtle than sizzle. Last season they quietly posted the NBA’s best defence and second-best net rating. Where they struggled was having enough floor spacing around on-ball creators Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, especially with all-star Jarrett Allen doing his best work at the rim. Enter Strus, signed as a free agent from the Heat, who has shot 37 per cent from three for his career and 41 per cent two season ago. And don’t overlook Georges Niang, signed from Philly, who has shot 40 per cent from deep for his career and shown the ability to convert at that rate off the bench. A lot of teams at the top of the league shuffled pieces; the Cavs filled needs and, for that reason, bear watching. — MG
Kristaps Porzingis: The Latvian unicorn has had an uneven career since being drafted by the Knicks fourth overall in 2015. At times, he’s looked like the second-coming of Kevin Durant. But most, he’s looked more like a concept (a rim-protecting big who can space the floor and create off the dribble) than an actual player as he’s struggled with injuries and odd on-floor fits. But coming off one of the best and healthiest years of his career, Porzingis has his first chance to play on a championship-level team. He’s the clear No. 3 option with Boston, but if he delivers, he might be the best third option in the NBA. The Celtics have been title-worthy for nearly a decade it feels like but have yet to make it happen. Could Porzingis be the missing link? — MG
Ben Simmons: On paper, the 2023-24 Brooklyn Nets and Simmons are a perfect match. The Nets feature a slew of long, versatile perimeter players who can spread the floor with their shooting, no one more so than Mikal Bridges, who showed himself to be a star-in-waiting after arriving in the Kevin Durant trade. In theory, a healthy Simmons leading the Nets defence and rambling into the paint as the NBA’s biggest point guard, at once creating and taking advantage of driving lanes, could make the Nets a factor in the wide-open Eastern Conference. It would also mean reviving a once-promising career, opening options for the Nets and Simmons, who has one more year on his contract. But the former No. 1 pick is very much in the ‘show me’ phase of his career after two seasons stalled due to injury issues and taking time to focus on his mental health, and both his and the Nets’ future hinges on what everyone ends up seeing. — MG
Klay Thompson: To hear the chatter around the Warriors last year, you would have thought Thompson didn’t look like himself in his return from another injury, or maybe just wasn’t able to get back there after missing the bulk of the three seasons prior. Look at the numbers, though, and a 33-year-old Thompson set a career-best in three-point volume, hitting 4.4 per-game (on 41.2 per cent), a number only Steph Curry and James Harden have ever topped. Now a year older and headed for free agency at the end of the year, Thompson’s season is massive for two reasons: Do the Warriors have another deep run in them despite the league’s oldest core? And is he the first piece of their Big 3 to leave? The first could inform the second, and Thompson doesn’t sound too worried about it. It’s good for the league if the dynasty has another push in them. — BM
Markelle Fultz: Paolo Banchero was Rookie of the Year. Franz Wagner could be headed for a Most Improved Player breakout. Jalen Suggs, Jett Howard and Anthony Black are recent lottery picks. The Magic are going to be a lot of fun, and potentially good. Where Fultz fits — and relatedly, if Cole Anthony fits at all — is an important determination to make in the last year of his deal. He was able to play 60 games last season, which is the most important thing. He also shot 51.4 per cent from the floor and set career-bests across the board. He doesn’t need to deliver on the No. 1 pick promise, he just needs to solidify what last year showed: That’ he’s a starting-calibre guard in the league and, at just 25, a leader for this upstart group. This might be the least sure I’ve ever been what a player’s next contract will look like. — BM
Scoot Henderson: Trading Damian Lillard set the Blazers on a new course. They are rebuilding, and their series of trades have them in a tremendous starting place compared to other teams who have had to trade stars and start over. That’s in large part due to the potential of Henderson, who was the most electrifying player in the G League last year and now joins Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons as a spicy guard trio to build with. How good the team is depends much more on how much management continues their matryoshka trading style. How bright the future is, though, is all about Henderson as the lead man in the prospect triumvirate. — BM
