Eight of the 10 NFL playoff games so far this year have been rematches from the regular season and that trend continues championship weekend.
The third meeting this season between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers will mark just the second playoff game between these two franchises.
The 49ers posted their second-lowest point total of the season in a blizzard at Lambeau last week yet came out ahead of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers when it mattered most yet again.
Meanwhile, the Rams were having their way with the Bucs but a few sloppy turnovers allowed Tampa to creep back into it. A pair of clutch connections from Matthew Stafford to Cooper Kupp set up a last-second game-winning field goal to get us to where we currently stand.
Here’s a closer look at this anticipated all-NFC West (re)matchup.
Does Shanahan win the coaching duel over McVay again?
Two of the brightest offensive minds in football and stemming from the same coaching tree, Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay have already seen their fair share of success as young head coaches but both have fallen short in their opportunities to win a championship.
Shanahan and the 49ers are aiming to advance to their second Super Bowl in three years despite barely sneaking into the post-season, while McVay and the Rams hope to advance to the big show for the first time since a 13-3 loss to the Patriots in Super Bowl LIII.
The division rivals are extremely familiar with one another but since 2018 Shanahan’s 49ers have consistently had the Rams’ number. Shanahan is 6-0 in his last six against McVay.
“We knew what the tape was going to look like before we turned it on, and they are the exact same way,” Shanahan told reporters this week. “We are going to see who makes the most plays and who makes the least mistakes.”
The 49ers were among the most penalized teams to qualify for the post-season and their negative 257 penalty yard differential is tied for worst in the NFL this season.
L.A.’s main problem has been not playing consistently for all four quarters.
“You got to play well in that three-and-a-half-hour window that we’re allotted. You look at the last time that we played them, (we) didn’t finish the game,” McVay told NFL.com this week.
Don’t be surprised to see McVay and Shanahan each bring a few new looks to the table as well.
“There’s good schemes, there’s great players, it’s why we’re in this position,” McVay added. “Let’s go roll it out and see who plays the best in that three-and-a-half-hour window and gives themselves the chance to advance.”
Why will the Rams win?
The Rams should advance to the Super Bowl because, on paper at least, they are the better overall team. Whether or not they can manage to put together a 60-minute effort with no mental errors or turnovers is an entirely different matter. There was too much inconsistency in L.A.’s pair of games versus San Francisco this season. They were even up 17-0 in the Week 18 loss and that wasn’t the first time they’ve blown a big lead this season.
“We have to play four quarters,” a confident Aaron Donald told reporters this week. “We have to find a way to finish and I know we’re going to do that.”
Starting left tackle Andrew Whitworth, who protects Stafford’s blindside with great efficiency, is returning from a knee injury. This is huge for L.A. considering his backup, Joe Noteboom, is out with an injury of his own. Stafford typically handles blitzes well, however the 49ers are often able to generate pressure with a four-man rush led by Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead. Whitworth and his o-line will be busy against these ends on Sunday.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been somewhat of an anomaly this season as 49ers QB. He is an inconsistent passer and has poor deep-ball accuracy yet he ranks second in yards per attempt. Garoppolo’s turnover-worthy play percentage is 4.9 per cent, according to Pro Football Focus, which was bottom of the barrel in the NFL this season.
Why will the 49ers win?
L.A. might be 7-1 in their past eight, scoring 30 or more points in five of them, but that lone loss was to the 49ers, who went 2-0 against the Rams this season. A key factor was success running the ball both in Week 10 and in a dramatic Week 18 come-from-behind overtime win that clinched them a playoff berth.
The 49ers can control the clock and pace of play by establishing their ground game once again. The 49ers won the time of possession battle 39:03-20:57 in Week 10 and 36:44-31:24 in Week 18.
They pound the rock often and Garoppolo attacks the middle of the field through YAC beast George Kittle and elite utility man Deebo Samuel. Opposing teams know exactly how the 49ers will attack but it hasn’t hindered their success.
San Fran is also an excellent road team at 8-3 away from home. In fact, they’re about to become the first team in NFL history – thanks in part to the expanded regular-season schedule – to play 12 road games in a single season.
It’s not often you have to beat the same team thrice in a season yet the 49ers might have the formula to pull it off.
Matchup to watch: 49ers secondary vs. Rams passing attack
If the Rams are going to win, Stafford and the passing game must be dialled in. Same goes for the 49ers defensive secondary.
Kupp won the WR triple crown this season by leading the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. The fleet-footed breakout star is nearly impossible to contain in man coverage, so the 49ers might honestly be best off doubling him in certain circumstances and taking their chances with lesser coverage against Odell Beckham Jr. and Stafford’s other targets. One thing to keep in mind: the 49ers don’t shy away from using zone schemes which will help limit Kupp’s impact.
Unlike the 49ers, who frequently throw short passes, Stafford can stretch the field with the best of them and has several options whenever a deep ball is drawn up. Add to that the fact the 49ers led the league in defensive pass interference calls and it could spell disaster without sufficient help from the front seven.
