As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on the Blueprint 3, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story.
Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space. Here are 10 stats that will tell the story for Week 15 in the NFL.
1. Eagles’ record is deceiving
The Philadelphia Eagles have struggled of late, but we really shouldn’t be surprised. Despite their 10-3 record, they’ve been far from dominant. Look no further than their point differential. The Eagles are just plus-21. By comparison, the Dallas Cowboys are plus-188, the San Francisco 49ers are plus-175 and the Baltimore Ravens are plus-143. The Eagles perform more like a middle-of-the-road team like the New Orleans Saints, who are plus-24 despite having a 6-7 record. The Eagles lost their last two games by 20 and 23 points, respectively. They are starting to regress back to the mean of who they are as a football team.
2. Cowboys can clinch a playoff spot with a win or a tie
The Dallas Cowboys are tied with the Eagles atop the NFC East, but are going in the opposite direction. Dallas has won five straight games, including four wins by at least 20 points. The Cowboys can clinch a playoff spot with a win or a tie, so if their winning ways continue, they’ll be among the first teams to punch their ticket to the post-season.
3. Prescott on an MVP run
Dak Prescott continues his strong play down the stretch that makes him an MVP front-runner. Prescott has put up 2,172 passing yards and 22 TDs since Week 8, the most in the NFL in that span. Prescott has seven consecutive games with multiple passing TDs. If you extend the sample size to the last eight games, Prescott has the Cowboys sitting pretty with a 7-1 record thanks to his 2,444 passing yards, 25 passing TDs, two interceptions and 69 completion percentage.
4. Bills on the move
The biggest difference in the Buffalo Bills offence now that Joe Brady is the new offensive coordinator and calling plays comes down to pre-snap motion. The first 10 games of the season, on 46 per cent of their offensive plays they used pre-snap motion, which ranks 20th. In the last three games, that number is up to 61 per cent, which ranks eighth. The increase is for good reason. The Bills average 6.2 yards per play with motion, third in the NFL. Expect to see it used more and more as the Bills look to move up the standings in the AFC.
5. Bengals still a threat with Browning
What a start it’s been for Jake Browning. Browning has the highest completion percentage in his first three career starts since 1950, at 79 per cent. That’s just ahead of Chad Pennington (77 per cent) and Justin Herbert (72 per cent). The Bengals haven’t missed a beat with Browning taking over for the injured Joe Burrow. They’re averaging 26 points per game in three starts by Browning to the tune of a 2-1 record, and have scored 34 points in their last two games, both of them wins.
6. No blitz, no problem for Denver
Out of nowhere, the Denver Broncos have won six of their last seven. When you look closer, the turnaround is all about their defence. Since Week 7, they’ve given up 15 points per game, best in the AFC. The key to their defence is harassing the quarterback without exposing their secondary. The Broncos are getting pressure on 33 per cent of drop-backs without blitzing, which is third in the NFL.
7. Goff under pressure
Jared Goff has gone from playing lights-out to being lackadaisical with the football. The first nine games this year, Goff had the Detroit Lions at 7-2, with a 66 total QBR and just five turnovers. In the last four games, the Lions are 2-2 and Goff has just a 41 total QBR and nine turnovers, three more than any other player in that span. In the first nine games, Goff had just six turnover-worthy plays, in the last four games he has eight. What’s changed? The amount he’s feeling pressure. Goff really struggles with pressure, as he’s under pressure on 35 per cent of his drop-backs, despite having the sixth-fastest time to throw in the league. Goff’s QBR when under pressure is 1.3, despite having the fastest time to throw when under pressure.
8. Kansas City receivers dropping the ball
Much has been made about Kadarius Toney lining up offside, but the persistent issue remains to be the Kansas City receivers continue to struggle to catch the football. The Chiefs’ wide receivers have dropped an astonishing eight per cent of Mahomes’ passes this season. No team has got past the divisional round with a drop rate that high and that is the worst drop rate by any group of WRs in the NFL over the past decade by a full percentage point. No other team in the league this year has their WR core above a 5.1 per cent drop rate. The Chiefs WRs are dropping passes more than twice the league average, which is well below four per cent.
9. New low in New England
New England is 3-10 this season and will continue the streak of just one playoff appearance and zero playoff wins since Tom Brady left. When TB12 left, so did the Patriots offence, and this year’s offensive output might be one of the worst ever. The Patriots are averaging just 13 points per game, which is last in the NFL. They’ve had 15 passes intercepted and just 19 total touchdowns, both tied for 31st in the league. New England has a minus-nine turnover differential, which is 30th. The team’s total yards per game is 291.4 and their passer rating is 75.5, both ranking them 28th. If this is the end of Bill Belichick in New England, he’ll have his offence to blame.
10. Charge the Chargers
The issue for the Los Angeles Chargers is they’re both bad and expensive. Not only did they get embarrassed with a 63-point loss on Thursday, they did it with one of the most expensive rosters in football. The Chargers are already $34.8 million over projected salary cap next year, which is second highest. On their books, they have $22 million in dead cap money, $20.8 million of which is for J.C. Jackson. And unlike many bad NFL teams, they can’t blame quarterback health. Justin Herbert started every game under Brandon Staley until this week. Staley is 24-24 in three seasons. The Chargers have had six coaches since 1998 and have never made an in-season move at head coach. The players are impacting competitive balance by quietly quitting, which might be the reason Staley finally does get fired after all.
