The NFL Divisional round is upon us and there are some tantalizing storylines and matchups on deck on the road to Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas.
As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on the Blueprint 3, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story.
Whether it’s your playoff wagers, confidence pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space.
Here are 10 stats that will tell the story of the NFL post-season.
1. Tale of the tape
The match up everyone wanted was not so much Buffalo Bills versus Kansas City Chiefs as much as it was Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes. It’s a heavyweight fight whenever the two off-season golfing buddies compete in the playoffs.
The matchup has been pretty even. Mahomes has three wins, a 67.8 completion percentage, 334.8 total yards per game, 14 total TDs, and five interceptions in their six meetings. Allen on the other hand has three wins, 60.9 completion percentage, 322.7 total yards per game, 17 total TDs and three interceptions.
2. Mahomes versus the Bills
Mahomes numbers against Buffalo have been up and down. Down in the regular season and up in the playoffs. Which is why he’s 2-0 vs Allen and the Bills in the playoffs and 1-4 against them in the regular season.
In his two playoff wins versus Buffalo, Mahomes has six TD passes, no interceptions, a 76-completion percentage, 8.6 yards per attempt and is averaging 40 points per game. In the regular season matchups, he has seven TDs, five interceptions, a 64-completion percentage, 6.8 yards per attempt and 20.8 points per game.
3. Playoff Pat
Patrick Mahomes continues to add to his growing playoff legacy. In just his sixth year as a starter he already has more playoff wins than Aaron Rodgers. Mahomes just won his 12th career playoff start, tying Tom Brady for the most through seven seasons in NFL history.
Mahomes, however, has only started six seasons.
The two-time MVP already has the eighth-most playoff wins of any quarterback in league history. His overall playoff record before the Super Bowl is 10-2, with the two losses coming in overtime with 32 TDs and three interceptions.
Mahomes is now alone in eighth place for most playoff wins all time, with 12 and counting. With a win this week he’d tie Brett Favre and Ben Roethlisberger for sixth. If he makes the Super Bowl he’s tied with Peyton Manning, John Elway and Terry Bradshaw for third.
Win the Super Bowl and he’ll be alone in third, one behind Montana for second.
Mahomes is just 28 years old.
4. Two Deep
Much has been made of the unreliability of the Kansas City Chiefs receiving core due to drops, poor routes and penalties.
Over the course of the year, Patrick Mahomes has essentially self-edited their passing game to two targets, veteran Travis Kelce, and rookie Rashee Rice. The duo have dominated all things Chiefs receiving since Week 12.
Kelce and Rice have combined for 1062 receiving yards and 114 receptions, (61 per cent of the Chiefs receptions since Week 12). All other Chiefs have combined for 74 receptions and 933 yards. Rice in particular has really separated himself with 51 receptions. 648 yards and four TDs in the last seven games, all categories he led the team in, in that time span.
5. New Kansas City offence
The biggest difference to the Chiefs offence this year versus their previous Bills playoff matchups is the lack of explosion on that side of the ball from their receivers. It’s the dynamic they’ve yet to replace post-Tyreek Hill moving on. From 2018-2021 the Chiefs had 44 TD passes over 20 yards. From 2022-2023 they have just two TD passes over 20 yards
6. Not top 10
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have defied logic getting this far. Tampa Bay is the second team since 1990 to be bottom 10 on defence and offence and make the divisional round. The other was the 2010 “Beast Quake” Seattle Seahawks.
7. Big Game Baker
Baker Mayfield is now the second QB in Tampa Bay Buccaneers history with 300 plus passing yards in a playoff game. The other is Tom Brady who did three times.
This isn’t a one off for Baker in big games. When you look at the list of the highest playoff Passer Ratings among active QB’s, (minimum 100 attempts) first is no surprise with Patrick Mahomes at 105.7. It is a bit more surprising that right behind him is Baker Mayfield with 102.7.
Mayfield’s early struggles might be more due to the fact he’s had eight head coaches in six years and not his ability. He’s made a case for stability in terms of a contract extension in Tampa and another good playoff game will strengthen the case.
8. New Day in New England
Jerod Mayo has been announced as the new leader of the New England Patriots and Bill Belichick looks like he might land with the Atlanta Falcons.
What can they learn from the teams still playing in the post-season? You must nail the early round of the draft and get difference makers. Something that wasn’t part of the Patriot way.
In the last 10 NFL drafts New England had 18 first and second round picks. Of those picks New England produced one pro bowl appearance (Mac Jones), zero first team all-pros and zero players got a second contract with New England. It’s impossible to compete if you annually strike out in the draft.
