The 2024-2025 NFL season is upon us and there are some tantalizing storylines and matchups on deck. As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on Blueprint 3, “Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story.
Whether it’s your wagers, confidence pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space. Here are 10 stats that will tell the story of the first week of the NFL season.
1. Not good to be number one
First-overall picks are seen as franchise saviours, especially when they are quarterbacks. However, the turnaround process takes some time. In the common draft era, only four quarterbacks who were taken first overall won their first game. The list includes Jim Plunkett, John Elway, Michael Vick, and most recently, David Carr in 2002. Since Carr won his first start for the Texans, first-overall quarterbacks are 0-14-1. Be careful betting it all on Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears right away.
2. Best Bears QB ever?
How bad has the QB play been in Chicago historically? Remarkably, the Chicago Bears have never had a 4,000-yard passer. We’ve seen some average-to-bad QBs hit 4,000 of late. If he stays healthy, Williams will likely set many franchise records, and the first and easiest one might be the 4,000-yard plateau.
3. Mercedes still runs
The best story of a player who made the team coming out of camp might be Mercedes Lewis who is the second oldest player in the league behind only Aaron Rodgers.
At 40 years old, this is his 19th season. That is the longest career for a tight end in NFL history, creating breathing room between himself and Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez, who each played for 17 seasons. How impressive is that longevity? For context, Calvin Johnson, Darrelle Revis, Joe Thomas, and Patrick Willis all entered the league, retired, and were named to the Hall of Fame when Lewis was in the league. The last time Lewis had 50 catches was 14 years ago, so he isn’t as productive, but clearly, his veteran presence is still worthy of being in the locker room.
4. Just add Cousins
How good can the Atlanta Falcons be if you just give them an accurate quarterback? The Falcons go from the worst QB situation in the league to statistically one of the best.
Atlanta’s quarterbacks have averaged only 183 pass yards per game since 2022, 28th in the league. Kirk Cousins put up 291.4 pass yards per game and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game in 2023, which led the NFL. Extend the sample size, and Cousins’ resume boasts a 101.4 passer rating and 141 passing touchdowns since 2019, both good enough for third in the NFL.
The Falcons’ strong running game paired with Cousins is especially scary. Cousins has 16 passing TDs on play-action passes since 2022, good enough for fourth in the NFL.
5. Shakir a No. 1 WR in Buffalo?
The Buffalo Bills had 240 targets leave Western New York when Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis joined AFC South contenders this off-season. Khalil Shakir is the only Bills receiver who has caught a regular season pass from Josh Allen. Last year, Shakir led all receivers in passer rating when targeted at 133.6 as he caught 85 per cent of his targets. From Week 7 on, he received more yards than Diggs, with 54 fewer targets. If you didn’t draft him in fantasy you might want to try to get your hands on him as he’s primed for a breakout year.
6. Joe needs Ja‘Marr
The Bengals might not need Ja’Marr Chase to beat the New England Patriots in Week 1, but they’ll definitely need him this year. Chase could use his current QB and LSU teammate Joe Burrow to help negotiate his contract dispute with the Bengals front office as their franchise QB’s numbers with and without the star receiver on the field are striking.
With Chase on the field, Burrow has a 60 quarterback rating and 7.7 yards per attempt. With Chase off the field, those numbers drop to 49 QBR and 6.9 yards per attempt. Burrow, as the Bengals starter, has a 24-14 record when Chase plays and is just 5-8 when Chase doesn’t. Those numbers speak loudly.
7. Downside of worst to first
The Houston Texans will feel the difference between playing a last-place schedule in 2023 versus a first-place schedule in 2024. The biggest difference will be the QBs they will face. In their wins last year, the quarterbacks the Texans beat were Trevor Lawrence, Kenny Pickett, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Will Levis, Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco. The Texans can’t pick on the poor anymore. Some of the quarterbacks they are scheduled to play this year are Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
8. Trevor Lawrence vs. man defence
When Houston faces off against Trevor Lawrence this season, they’ll see a new man-against-man. Most QBs love facing off against man coverage. Lawrence hasn’t been one of them. In the 2023 regular season, Lawrence had a 55 completion percentage, 5.7 yards per attempt, eight TDs, eight interceptions and a 68.5 passer rating versus man coverage, which is last in the NFL.
Granted, it’s a small sample size, but in the pre-season, Lawrence showed growth in this area, putting up an 80-completion percentage, 7.2 yards per attempt, 2 TDs, and no interceptions, which equals a 136.3 passer rating. If Lawrence solves man coverage, we may finally anoint him among the elite tier of quarterbacks.
9. Historic Three Peat Against All Odds
The Kansas City Chiefs are trying to become first time to win three straight championships in the Super Bowl era. History tells us it’s unlikely. Of the previous eight teams to repeat as champions, none of them made it back to the Super Bowl in the third year and three of them didn’t even make the playoffs.
10. Worthy of explosions
One thing that will help the Chiefs on their quest back to a championship is a return to the explosive plays in their offence. Last season, the Chiefs only had four 20-plus-yard TDs, the second-fewest in the NFL. In their week one win versus Baltimore, rookie Xavier Worthy alone had two in his first NFL game.
On just three touches, Worthy became the first player in NFL history with a 20-plus yard rushing and receiving TD in his NFL debut.
