The must-win games have started much earlier than usual for the Kansas City Chiefs.
A team that’s been to seven straight AFC championship games is in danger of not even making it to the post-season.
Let’s look at the facts.
At 5-5 after a loss to the 9-2 Denver Broncos in Week 11, the AFC West division title is essentially out of reach for the Chiefs.
That turns their attention to a wild-card berth, where they also have a few things working against them.
The three teams sitting in the AFC’s three wild-card slots heading into Week 12 are the Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), Buffalo Bills (7-4) and Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4). Those three teams have all beaten Kansas City this season and own the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker over Patrick Mahomes’ squad.
Simply put, the margin for error for the Chiefs is gone.
“It hasn’t always been just championships. We’ve dealt with adversity, and guys have learned and gotten better from it,” Mahomes said this week. “Obviously this is something that we haven’t dealt with so early in the season, but at the same time, I know the guys in that locker room and know how they’re going to respond. All we can do is stick together, and push ourselves to be even better.”
They’re certainly going to have to be better this week, because their opponent on Sunday is no slouch.
The 8-2 Indianapolis Colts head to Arrowhead Stadium with their sights set on the No. 1 seed in the AFC — something almost no one saw coming at the start of the season.
A win over the Chiefs on Sunday would jump the Colts’ chances at the top seed to 35 per cent, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator.
But almost more importantly for the Colts, a victory would push a playoff spot even further out of sight for the Chiefs.
Because despite all their shortcomings this season, if Kansas City gets into the dance, it will still be very hard to bet against them.
Here are some other key storylines to keep an eye on in Week 12:
Baker Mayfield versus the team that saved his career
If it weren’t for Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams, who knows if Baker Mayfield would still be playing football.
At his lowest point, Mayfield joined the Rams three seasons ago in a move that altered the trajectory of his career.
After being cast out by the Carolina Panthers, the former No. 1 overall pick joined L.A. off waivers just over 48 hours before a home game against the Las Vegas Raiders.
With almost no time to learn a new playbook and Matthew Stafford out with a season-ending injury, Mayfield went on to start and lead the Rams on a 98-yard, game-winning touchdown drive with under two minutes remaining and zero timeouts.
“There is no way for me to sugarcoat it, it was pivotal in my career and in my journey,” Mayfield said this week of his time with the Rams. “It helped me find the fun in football again… It was instrumental, and I’m forever grateful for it.”
It also helped him earn a one-year deal with the Buccaneers the following off-season, which he then parlayed into the three-year, $100 million contract he’s currently on with Tampa Bay.
On Sunday, Mayfield gets to return to the site of his epic game-winning drive against the team he did it with.
And he’d love nothing more than to pull off some more heroics, as the Buccaneers could really use it. Tampa Bay has lost three of its past four games and is just a half-game up on the Carolina Panthers for the NFC South lead.
They are the heavy underdogs against the 8-2 Rams, who look the part as a legitimate Super Bowl favourite.
But it sure would be fitting for Mayfield to thank the Rams for saving his career by handing them a loss in prime time.
Shedeur Sanders gets his shot
It’s not often a matchup between two 2-8 teams makes a lot of headlines, but that’s exactly the case for Sunday’s matchup between the Raiders and the Cleveland Browns.
That’s because rookie Shedeur Sanders will make his first NFL start for a Browns team that is still in desperate search of a franchise QB.
The polarizing son of Hall of Famer Deion Sanders will be under the spotlight as he becomes the 42nd different quarterback to start for the Browns since 1999.
But the spotlight is nothing new for Sanders. He was under it for his whole college career when he played for his dad in Colorado, and again when he slipped all the way to the fifth round in this year’s NFL Draft.
After starting the season as the Browns’ third-string QB, Sanders is being thrust into action this Sunday after fellow rookie Dillon Gabriel left last week’s game due to a concussion.
In relief of Gabriel last week against the Baltimore Ravens, Sanders didn’t do a lot to quiet some of the doubts surrounding him.
He completed just 4-of-16 passes for 47 yards and also threw an interception.
But with a full week of preparation as the starter, and going up against a porous Raiders defence, this is Sanders’ chance to show he’s got what it takes to be an NFL starter.
“I know our fans have a lot of expectations and hope, and I would be doing a disservice to myself and disservice to the organization if I didn’t feel like I am the guy,” Sanders said this week. “I’m doing everything I need to to prepare to be the best version of myself as possible. With the circumstances, everything got to be sped up and that’s great. I like pressure in life.”
Game to watch: Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ETd
It’s hard to say what’s real and what’s not from the Cowboys’ 33-16 win over the Raiders in Week 11.
Dallas’s offence looked unstoppable, and the defence led by trade deadline acquisition Quinnen Williams showed signs of life.
Then again, it was the Raiders, and plenty of teams have looked all-world against Vegas this season.
But Sunday’s divisional matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles will be the perfect test to see whether or not this Cowboys team actually has a chance of making something of this season.
The Eagles’ defence has looked near unstoppable over the past two games, holding the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions to a combined 16 points.
Philadelphia still has some questions of its own on the offensive side of the ball, but the defence sure looks like a group capable of winning a second straight Super Bowl.
Therefore, if the Cowboys can pull off the upset against the Eagles, suddenly a second-half run doesn’t seem so out of the question.
Forrest’s favourites (Season record: 17-13 — All odds courtesy of BetMGM):
Eagles @ Cowboys — Pick: Eagles -3: The Cowboys looked pretty good against the Raiders last week, but with the way this Eagles defence is playing right now, it should be a long day for Dallas.
Falcons @ Saints — Pick: Saints -2: The vibes are bad in Atlanta right now. Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season, and Kirk Cousins will start on Sunday. In his one other start this season, the Falcons lost 34-10 against the Miami Dolphins. So ride with the Saints at home.
Panthers @ 49ers — Pick: Panthers +7: With Bryce Young coming off the best game of his career and the Panthers having something to play for this season, seven points is too juicy to pass up.
Full Week 12 schedule (All times ET)
WEEK 12
Thursday, Nov. 20
Houston 23, Buffalo 19
Sunday, Nov. 23
New England at Cincinnati, 1 p.m.
Pittsburgh at Chicago, 1 p.m.
Indianapolis at Kansas City, 1 p.m.
NY Jets at Baltimore, 1 p.m.
NY Giants at Detroit, 1 p.m.
Seattle at Tennessee, 1 p.m.
Minnesota at Green Bay, 1 p.m.
Cleveland at Las Vegas, 4:05 p.m.
Jacksonville at Arizona, 4:05 p.m.
Atlanta at New Orleans, 4:25 p.m.
Philadelphia at Dallas, 4:25 p.m.
Tampa Bay at LA Rams, 8:20 p.m.
Monday, Nov. 24
Carolina at San Francisco, 8:15 p.m.
BYES: Denver, LA Chargers, Miami, Washington
