No matter how the matchup looks on paper, the play on the field can tell a completely different story.
The Denver Broncos almost learned that the hard way as the Washington Commanders took them the distance, but it was the heavily favoured top seed in the AFC who eventually survived in overtime.
It was the type of game Denver has become accustomed to playing this season, as they tied the NFL record with their seventh win by four or fewer points. The Broncos are also only the second team to win four straight games in the same season by three points or fewer.
The 1986 New York Giants did it on the way to winning the Super Bowl, and while you can see the path for the Broncos to go the distance, they certainly have areas to clean up.
Denver continues to struggle to run the ball consistently, which puts a lot of pressure on Bo Nix, and he made some nice throws at key points, especially in overtime, but is that a sustainable recipe for success?
Give the Commanders credit, they faced some tough situations and made big plays to stay in the game. No play was bigger than Treylon Burks’, who secured his second career touchdown — and first since 2022 — with arguably the catch of the season so far.
The action started with the three-game slate on American Thanksgiving, which set the tone for a dramatic Week 13 that reshaped the playoff picture in both conferences.
The Panthers did what?
The Carolina Panthers delivered the upset of the week — and possibly the season —knocking off the Los Angeles Rams in a performance that blended physical defence with timely offence.
Carolina controlled the trenches throughout, limiting the Rams’ ground game and frustrating Matthew Stafford with constant pressure. The Panthers’ young core showed composure in key moments, piecing together long, patient drives that kept the Rams’ high-powered offence off the field.
The story of the day belonged to Panthers quarterback Bryce Young. Entering the contest as a double-digit underdog against the red-hot Rams (who were on a six-game winning streak), Young delivered the best performance of his career. He drove the Panthers to a massive 31–28 victory that has them sneaking into the NFC playoff conversation at 7–6.
Young was deadly efficient, completing 15-of-20 passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns, earning a sparkling 147.1 passer rating. His signature moment came in the fourth quarter when, trailing 28–24, he converted a crucial fourth-and-two with a 43-yard touchdown strike to rookie Tetairoa McMillan.
That game-winning drive wasn’t just huge for Carolina; it was historic for Young. It marked his 11th career game-winning drive, making him the youngest player in NFL history to reach that milestone, surpassing the previous benchmark set by Josh Allen.
For the Rams, the result was troubling for MVP candidate Matthew Stafford, who turned the ball over three times (including a pick-six). It was a disastrous stumble that cost them the No. 1 seed in the NFC for the time being.
Bills turn to run game in bounce-back win over Steelers
After Josh Allen had a rough time in a frustrating loss to the Houston Texans, it was clear that Buffalo needed a new game plan to get back on track. The solution: keep the ball on the ground and limit the Steelers’ pass rush.
James Cook led the charge with 144 rushing yards on 32 carries, overcoming an early fumble to become the engine of the offence. Fellow running back Ray Davis also contributed 62 yards on nine carries.
In total, the Bills racked up 249 rushing yards, the most the Steelers’ defence has ever allowed to an opposing team at Acrisure Stadium.
Allen also made history, breaking the NFL record for the most career rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in the regular season, surpassing Cam Newton’s long-standing mark of 75.
On defence, Buffalo made sure Aaron Rodgers’ return to the lineup was a miserable one as Pittsburgh’s offence managed just 166 net yards, their worst mark of the season, and their veteran quarterback showed signs of wear and tear.
The Bills earned an important victory that not only keeps them in a strong position in the wild-card race but also maintains pace in the AFC East.
Texans keep rolling with elite defence
The Houston Texans extended their win streak to four with a hard-fought 20–16 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. It was a tough task considering the Colts were undefeated at home and put them in the hunt within the division.
Houston’s defence dictated the pace, while the offence executed in critical moments. A big part of the strategy was to limit Jonathan Taylor’s impact on the game and force QB Daniel Jones to beat you.
The Colts’ quarterback completed just 51.9 per cent of his passes as the Colts have now lost three of their last four games. It would have been tough to expect Indianapolis to maintain the pace it started the season with. The real concern is that they now have Houston right behind them.
While the Texans only had two touchdowns on offence, that hasn’t been a concern just yet, given that the defence has been lights out.
Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has been a standout on defence this season, and against the Colts, he did not allow a reception on his 28 coverage snaps. It was also the fifth game this season that he’s allowed less than 10 yards in coverage, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Jaguars make up ground in AFC South
Jacksonville cruised to a 25–3 win over Tennessee as the Jaguars continue to build momentum at the right time.
Trevor Lawrence secured his third-straight victory but needed to play a cleaner game after throwing three interceptions last week against the Arizona Cardinals. He did just that with 256 yards and two touchdowns.
It helps that your defence almost pitched a shutout, but it was also against a Titans team that has just one win this season.
With the Jaguars also heating up, the AFC South suddenly looks like one of the most competitive divisions entering the stretch run.
The real challenge for Jacksonville to remain first in the division will likely come down to the two games left in their schedule against the Colts, but they also have a couple of favourable matchups against the New York Jets and Titans.
Playoff race heating up
In case you thought you were dreaming, yes, the Chicago Bears are sitting first in the NFC, but expect the tight race to continue until the end of the season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers all picked up wins, which certainly doesn’t help the teams in the hunt for a spot, but the movement we’ve seen also shows how little margin for error there is.
The Rams got a taste of that with their loss to Carolina, but they have more to worry about than the No. 1 seed, considering the Seahawks are now tied with them in the division and the 49ers are just a half-game back.
When you look at the AFC playoff picture, you have four teams with 8-4 records that will be pushing for favourable seeding in hopes of landing a better matchup.
Other than the AFC South, the AFC North remains the race to watch as the seesaw battle between the Ravens and Steelers will take centre stage in Week 14 when the two teams go head-to-head.
