With Week 13 and Thanksgiving having come and gone, we’re getting into the thick of things with four weeks remaining in the regular season.
These wins matter more than ever for teams seeking a playoff berth. This is also the final bye week, as six teams are resting before the final push to the Super Bowl.
Below, you’ll see my Week 14 picks against the spread with odds from the BetMGM sportsbook.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars are, once again, without quarterback Trevor Lawrence after the gruesome hit he took against the Houston Texans. This leaves them with Mac Jones under center again. In his two starts, he has zero touchdown passes and three interceptions.
The Titans will take care of them at home, as the Jaguars and Jones deliver bad offensive football.
PICK: Titans -3.5 (-110)
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
The Dolphins lost on Thanksgiving Day at Lambeau Field. Still, QB Tua Tagovailoa was excellent statistically, throwing for 365 yards and two touchdowns.
The Jets’ defence has held opposing QBs to just one passing touchdown per game, but they’ve also given up 266 yards or more in two of their last three.
Look for the Dolphins offence to turn those additional yards into touchdowns.
PICK: Dolphins -6.5 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
Falcons QB Kirk Cousins was dreadful last week, throwing four interceptions against the Los Angeles Chargers at home. This week, he takes on a Vikings defence known for turnovers, averaging 1.5 interceptions per game. They’ve had at least one in five of their last six games.
Additionally, the Falcons have the least sacks in the league. When kept clean, Vikings QB Sam Darnold completes 72.3 per cent of his passes.
PICK: Vikings -5 (-110)
New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants
The Giants are coming off a 27-20 loss on the road to the Dallas Cowboys. However, this week, they face a Saints defence that’s allowed 11 rushing touchdowns to RBs since Week 4 and four passing touchdowns over the past two games.
Considering how bad the Saints’ defence has been lately, I’ll take the sizable home underdog.
PICK: Giants +5 (-110)
Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Panthers QB Bryce Young has been playing much better lately, throwing for 263 yards or more in each of his last two games, but he’s stepping into a game against one of the best defences in the league.
The Eagles allow only 282.8 yards (first), 178 passing yards (third), 104.8 rushing yards (seventh), and 18.2 points (fourth) per game.
Young is completing just 43.7 per cent of his passes under pressure this season.
The Eagles win big, covering the largest spread of the weekend.
PICK: Eagles -12.5 (-110)
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns put up big numbers in a 41-32 loss to the Broncos on Monday Night Football. QB Jameis Winston was the epitome of a gunslinger, throwing for 497 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions — two of which were returned for touchdowns.
The Browns have shown life on offence with Winston. This week, they face a Steelers defence that allowed over 300 yards and three touchdowns last week.
I’ll take the Browns as road dogs, given Winston’s propensity for passing through five starts. PICK: Browns +6.5 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Raiders lost on Black Friday on the road against the Chiefs, but they’re taking on a much better offence in the Buccaneers this week. They rank in the top six in yards, passing yards, and points per game and are inside the top eight in rushing yards.
Look for the Buccaneers’ offence to beat up the Raiders and defeat them by more than a touchdown at home.
PICK: Buccaneers -7 (-105)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Seahawks enter this game with at least one interception in each of the last six games. However, they’re second in passing yards per game at 250.3.
Seahawks QB Geno Smith has had trouble with turnovers this season, but the Cardinals have just six picks all year (tied for fifth worst).
In a divisional game, I’ll take the underdog.
PICK: Seahawks +3 (-110)
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Bills look unstoppable, scoring 30-plus points in six straight games. This week, they take on a Rams’ defence that’s allowing 24.2 points (ninth most) and 144.2 rushing yards (fifth most) per game.
Meanwhile, the Bills have five interceptions over their last three games.
Bills win on the road.
PICK: Bills -4 (-115)
Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers continue to deal with injuries as RBs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are out for the season. Now, they look to rookie Isaac Guerendo. They take on a Bears team that had a head-scratching end-of-game sequence on Thanksgiving, ultimately resulting in them firing their head coach.
Bears QB Caleb Williams has five touchdown passes over the last two games.
Coupling that with the “interim head coach bump,” I’ll take the Bears.
PICK: Bears +4 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
If you’re a fan of low-scoring football, this will be the game for you.
These are two excellent defences, but I prefer the Chargers. They’re sixth in sacks (36), tied for fourth in interceptions (13), and have the third-best turnover differential (+11).
Look for Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (11 interceptions, third most) to have one too many turnovers.
PICK: Chargers +4 (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Bengals are 1-3 in their last four games despite scoring 27-plus in each. They take on a Cowboys team that’s shown some offensive output against their divisional rivals over the last few weeks, but they won’t keep up with the Bengals’ offence.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow leads the league in passing touchdowns (30) and passing yards (3,337).
The Bengals win by double digits.
PICK: Bengals -5.5 (-110)
