All right, here we go. Week 18 of the NFL season is finally here.
We have a few key playoff situations to monitor, with the most notable involving the Cincinnati Bengals. They’ll make the playoffs if they win (which they did, 19-17 over the Steelers) and the Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos lose. That seemed almost unthinkable a few weeks ago.
Week 18 features only divisional matchups.
Below, you’ll find my picks against the spread using lines from the BetMGM sportsbook.
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Panthers are without running back Chuba Hubbard, and their rushing attack was nonexistent in Week 17. The Falcons’ pass rush has improved slightly lately, with 12 sacks over their last three games. Falcons rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has looked rock-solid to start his NFL career, too. At home, I think the Falcons get the win, and they’ll hope, by some miracle, the Saints beat the Buccaneers to squeak into the playoffs.
PICK: Falcons -8.5 (-105)
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys
With a win, the Commanders will hold the No. 6 seed and avoid playing Philadelphia on the road in the playoffs. The Cowboys’ offence was flat against the Eagles on the road last week, but they’ll take on a Commanders team they beat earlier this season. Still, I think the Commanders come away with a win and the cover. QB Jayden Daniels has been playing exceptionally well, posting eight passing touchdowns over his last two games.
PICK: Commanders -6.5 (-110)
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
This game has some playoff-seeding implications. If the Packers win and the Washington Commanders lose, the Packers will be the No. 6 seed. The good news is they’re at home against the Bears, a team that looked lost in Week 17, scoring just three points. The Bears have several offensive-line injuries and now have to take on a Packers defence that’s fifth in sacks with 44.
PICK: Packers -10 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are a complete disaster. They allowed 45 points against the New York Giants in Week 17 and will miss the playoffs again. QB Joe Flacco is starting again, having thrown six interceptions over his last three starts. Take the Jaguars and the points. I have no faith in the Colts, while Mac Jones aims to show the Jaguars or other teams why he should be on an NFL roster.
PICK: Jaguars +5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
The Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed, but they’ll give Josh Allen the nod to preserve his consecutive start streak (118). That said, I don’t think he’ll finish. The Patriots played the Bills closely a few weeks ago, but they also played terribly against the Chargers in Week 17. Going up against Mitchell Trubisky and the Bills’ backups for most of the game, they’ll keep it close enough to cover.
PICK: Patriots +2.5 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
The Eagles are locked into the No. 2 seed and are benching starters, including Saquon Barkley. In Week 17, the Giants had their best offensive output since 2019, but I don’t expect that to continue on the road. I trust the Eagles, led by Kenny Pickett or Tanner McKee, over the Giants. McKee completed three of four passes last week for 54 yards and two touchdowns. I’ll take the short home favourite.
PICK: Eagles -2.5 (-110)
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay controls its NFC South destiny. Regardless of what the Falcons do, a Buccaneers win solidifies the division. With a win and a Rams loss, the Buccaneers will get the No. 3 seed. The good news for them is they face a terrible Saints team averaging fewer than 10 points per game over their last three. Saints QB Spencer Rattler has three interceptions over his last two games and has completed 55.5 per cent or less of his passes in each of his last four games. The Buccaneers dismantle them.
PICK: Buccaneers -14 (-110)
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
The Texans are firmly cemented as the No. 4 seed, so expect plenty of backups. That means we’ll see a lot of Davis Mills. I don’t trust the Titans offence, but Mills isn’t good, either. Across 927 career attempts, he has 39 turnover-worthy plays and had double-digit picks in 2021 and 2022. The Titans defence is second in yards allowed with 307.3. Despite the Titans poor QB play this season, I’ll take them at home.
PICK: Titans -1.5 (-115)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
The 49ers had 11 players who didn’t practice on Wednesday, including key starters George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel and Deommodore Lenoir. I think they’ll sit the starters, along with Joshua Dobbs starting in place of Purdy. There hasn’t been any indication the Cardinals will sit anyone. I’ll take the home team at -4 against a host of backups.
PICK: Cardinals -4.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
While the Bengals are hoping for the best, they’re certainly not getting any help from the Chiefs. The Chiefs will rest numerous key starters, including QB Patrick Mahomes. This means Carson Wentz will start for the Chiefs. He started Week 18 last season for the Los Angeles Rams and got the win. The Broncos will win, but with a Steve Spagnuolo-coached defence, KC stays within 10.
PICK: Chiefs +10.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
With a win, the Chargers hold the No. 5 seed to face the Texans in the playoffs. With a loss, they’ll be the No. 6 seed and face Baltimore on the road. Meanwhile, Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce’s job could be on the line. I expect the Chargers to win and cover. The Chargers are fourth in turnovers (11). This could come into play as the Raiders have allowed about 200 QB pressures this season.
PICK: Chargers -4.5 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are sitting QB Matthew Stafford and starting Jimmy Garoppolo. If they lose and Tampa Bay wins, they’ll be the No. 4 seed and host the Lions or Vikings. If they win, they’ll be the No. 3 seed and host the Commanders or Packers. I’ll take a chance on the Rams at +6.5 if no other starters sit.
PICK: Rams +6.5 (-110)
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
The Dolphins’ playoff hopes are still alive. If they win and the Broncos lose, they’ll be in the playoffs. Still, it looks like Tyler Huntley will start again. I don’t trust this offence to score with him. In the four games he’s started, the Dolphins are averaging just 14.25 points and are 2-2. The Jets are home underdogs. I’ll take them in what could be Aaron Rodgers’ final game with the team.
PICK: Jets +1 (-105)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
The Vikings are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. The only notable injury is left tackle Christian Darrisaw. As for the Lions, they have 13 defensive players on injured reserve. Over their last four games, the Lions surrendered 32.5 points per game. I’ll take the road underdog with the weapons to keep pace with the Lions’ offence.
PICK: Vikings +3 (-115)
