Let’s be honest: Sunday’s slate of season finales isn’t exactly brimming with the promise of drama, considering most of the playoff seeds are locked in as we head into the final week of the season. But the Sunday night showdown between NFC North rivals Detroit and Minnesota is certainly poised to make up for it — because as we look ahead to the post-season matchups to come, Sunday’s divisional matchup feels like an early dose of playoff football.
In a week in which most contenders are resting their starters — no, we won’t be seeing Saquon Barkley run for history when the Eagles play, for example — we really will be waiting all day for Sunday night.
The Lions and Vikings have been on a collision course for a top-seed showdown since their Week 7 meeting, which saw Detroit hand Minnesota its first loss of the season by a score of 31-29. Both clubs arrive at Week 18 with matching 14-2 records — no regular-season NFL game has ever featured two teams with as many wins (28, combined) as this one does. It’s a season tally we expected of these powerhouse Lions after they claimed the division crown last year and came within a single win of a Super Bowl appearance. Minnesota’s journey, meanwhile, has been dotted with doubts — ‘are the Vikings for real?’ was a very real, and often repeated, refrain for much of the year.
At stake on Sunday night is not just the title of top team in the NFL’s toughest division this year, but the No. 1 seed in the entire NFC — and the bye week and home-field advantage that comes with it. It’s a rare win-and-in situation for both sides, though Detroit holds the tie-breaker should Sunday’s head-to-head end with a tie. Whoever loses gets dropped down to the fifth seed and first wild-card spot, and the honour of being the best team in NFL history not to win the division.
The Lions have won the last five head-to-heads between these clubs, all of which have been high-scoring affairs. But are they healthy enough to beat the Vikings? With their defence decimated by injuries, Detroit will have to lean on its high-octane offence if they’re going to top the Vikings. That’s a game Minnesota can play — and win — too, considering Darnold’s got his choice of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison every snap.
Before we get to the main event — the grandest of grand finales to wrap up what’s been a pretty fun regular season — here’s what else we’re watching for as all 32 teams hit the field in the 18th and final week of the campaign.
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Who will claim the AFC North crown?
Three of the AFC’s top four seeds are locked in, with the Kansas City Chiefs (No. 1), Buffalo Bills (No. 2) and Houston Texans (No. 4) all having secured their respective division titles in recent weeks. That leaves only the AFC North as the conference’s lone division in question, and we’ll get our answer on Saturday as all four squads square off in what should be a fun double-header before the rest of the league hits the field on Sunday.
The 11-5 Baltimore Ravens currently sit in the AFC’s third seed atop the AFC North and can stay there with a division-clinching victory or tie against the 3-13 Cleveland Browns on Saturday afternoon. A loss to the Browns puts the Ravens’ fate in the Bengals’ hands — if Cincinnati bests Pittsburgh later on Saturday, Baltimore still clinches the division and sends the Steelers to the fifth seed. A Ravens loss and a Steelers win sees Pittsburgh claim the crown.
Bengals? Dolphins? Broncos? AFC’s seventh seed still TBD
While the stakes are high for both the Ravens and Steelers as they battle to see who will host a playoff game and who will travel as a wild-card club, the Bengals are spending their season finale fighting for their playoff lives. Four straight wins — including last Saturday’s must-win overtime thriller against fellow playoff-hunter Denver — has Joe Burrow & Co. in position to pounce… with a little luck, of course.
The 8-8 Bengals are one of three teams vying for the AFC’s final wild-card spot, along with the 9-7 Broncos and 8-8 Dolphins. Despite losing to Cincinnati last week, the Broncos have a significant edge in this race and are the lone team of the three that can control its own future. Denver, whose playoff probability is currently at 84 per cent, can punch its ticket to the playoffs with a win or tie against the top-seeded Chiefs on Sunday — a KC squad that’s locked into the top seed and likely to rest plenty of starters. Denver can also get in with a loss, as long as both the Bengals and Dolphins lose or tie their respective matchups.
Miami needs to beat the Jets on Sunday as well as a Broncos loss in order to jump into that final playoff spot, and while their post-season odds (11 per cent) are slightly better than that of the Bengals (six), it’s hard to see Miami doing much of anything without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa taking snaps.
The Bengals have the toughest path: They need to defeat the Steelers on Saturday and then pray to the football gods for both a Broncos loss and a Dolphins loss or tie on Sunday.
Somebody is finally (!) going to win the NFC South
The NFC South has been pretty much the exact opposite of its northern counterpart — just when you think one of the Falcons or Buccaneers is about to stake their claim, they fall back down without the crown.
But Week 18 brings a resolution, at last. The 9-7 Buccaneers have the edge in this race, and the momentum sides with them, too — they’ve won five of their six games since their bye week, while Atlanta, who’s twice bested the Bucs this season, hasn’t been able to recover from the four-game losing skid that saw them fumble away a healthy lead in the South.
Tampa Bay can claim the crown (and the NFC’s fourth seed) with a victory over the Saints on Sunday or if the Falcons fall to the Panthers. It would mark their fourth consecutive division title. The only way for Atlanta to sneak back into the playoff picture is with a victory of their own and a Buccaneers loss.
When a loss could mean a win: Who will land the first overall draft pick?
Four teams enter Week 18 with just a single win, but only one can claim the 32nd spot in the standings when all is said and done — and the No. 1 overall draft pick that comes with being the league’s worst team.
The New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, and New York Giants all have matching 3-13 records and are all in the mix to claim the first draft pick of 2025.
If the season ended after 17 weeks, the Patriots would own the first overall selection due to strength of schedule. A loss to the Bills on Sunday would clinch that pick, but considering Buffalo’s locked into the AFC’s second seed and can essentially create its own bye week this Sunday, it’s not exactly a guarantee.
The Titans, currently holding the second pick and facing Houston on Sunday — another team with nothing at stake in Week 18 — would step into the top selection spot with a loss and a Patriots win. The Cleveland Browns sit third-last, followed by the Giants, with the worst odds of the quad to land the top pick.
