In 2020, the NFL underwent an offensive renaissance that saw teams average 24.8 points per game — the most ever in league history.
But these days, the defences seem to be getting some revenge.
Since the record-breaking 2020 season, league scoring has dropped every year and heading into Week 3 of this season, teams are averaging just 21.4 points per game. If that total were to hold, it would be the lowest average since 2006.
If it weren’t for the New Orleans Saints, who have 91 points through their first two games, things would be even worse.
It is just a two-week sample size, but it’s still worth taking a look at the early-season trend. Are the defensive schemes that much better? Is there a lack of talent on offence? A combination of both?
To get you set for the third week of the NFL season, we explore a few reasons why scoring might be down as well as some other key storylines to keep an eye on in Week 3.
Bend but don’t break
It’s not just the scoring numbers that are down, but passing as well.
Per Pro Football Reference, the league average for passing yards per game through two weeks is 192.7. That’s the lowest mark since 1992 (187.6).
Even the great Patrick Mahomes is averaging just 221 yards through the Kansas City Chiefs’ first two games of the season, which is well below his career average of 294.6.
One of the big reasons for this dramatic drop has to be credited to an overall schematic shift from NFL defences, specifically, a shift to playing much more Cover 2.
Defensive co-ordinators around the league have fallen in love with a two-high safeties look that dares offences to run the ball and move down the field with a methodical approach. ESPN’s Mina Kimes noted in Week 1, defences played with two high safeties 60 per cent of the time, a stark contrast to 38.4 per cent of the time five seasons ago.
With two safeties patrolling the deep part of the field on the majority of snaps, it has made the big passing play difficult to come by.
The new defensive strategy has been so successful, that ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. even called for two-high safeties to be “outlawed” on Thursday.
While that will obviously never happen, there is certainly some pressure on the offensive minds around the league early in the season.
Every NFL game is a chess match between the two sides of the ball, and we will have to see what moves offensive innovations co-ordinators around the league come up with to attack the league’s new popular scheme.
Maybe it’s a QB problem
Without discrediting the work of the defences, another reason for the lack of scoring could just be that the quarterback play around the league just isn’t what it used to be.
Case in point, Las Vegas Raiders’ Gardner Minshew heads into Week 3 tied for second in passing yards. Now no offence to Minshew, but he’s not one of the names we use when talking about superb quarterback play.
The days of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees leading the way are long gone. There are still a lot of elite signal callers around the league, Mahomes and Buffalo Bills pivot Josh Allen just to name a few. But it’s easy to see that the overall talent at the position — especially when we look strictly at throwing the ball — isn’t what it used to be.
There are a lot of young, up-and-coming QBs who are still learning to play at the NFL level, so it’s also entirely possible that by season’s end, we see an uptick in scoring as the youngsters get more experience.
Who wants to be first?
Speaking of young quarterbacks, it hasn’t been an ideal start for the three rookie QBs who started for their teams in Week 1.
Per Opta Stats, the 196 passes that Chicago Bears’ Caleb Williams, Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels and Denver Broncos’ Bo Nix have combined to throw without a touchdown through two games set a league record for consecutive passes by rookies without a score.
Not exactly the dream start to their NFL careers any of them were probably hoping for.
Williams and Daniels do at least already have their first NFL wins under their belts, and Daniels and Nix each have at least one rushing score, but all three will surely be looking to get things on track through the air in Week 3.
If you thought playoff odds were bad at 0-2, you won’t like 0-3
Nine teams head into Week 3 winless and are desperate for a victory.
Of the nine teams that started 0-2 last season, only one (Houston Texans) went on to make the playoffs.
Things get even worse when you take a look at the history of teams making the playoffs after starting 0-3. Since the start of the Super Bowl era (1966), only six teams have gone on to make the post-season after starting winless through three weeks
Now, we should mention that the NFL did expand the playoff field to seven teams in 2020, should that make the odds slightly better, but it’s still not a place teams want to be in.
Two 0-2 teams to keep a particular eye on in Week 3 are the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals. The two AFC North squads were tabbed by many to be Super Bowl contenders this season but are off to disappointing starts to the season.
The Bengals are heavy favourites against the Commanders on Monday night, but the Ravens face a stiffer test against a Dallas Cowboys team that is also looking for a bounce-back week after getting thrashed by the Saints in Week 3.
With Lamar Jackson leading the Ravens and Joe Burrow the Bengals, each squad does possess a QB capable of conjuring up some late-season magic if needed. However, the 0-3 hole is one they will surely be determined to avoid.
Other 0-2 teams looking for a win: Los Angeles Rams, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos
Game of the Week: Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
There are a number of tantalizing games that should keep football fans fully entertained in Week 3. Cowboys-Ravens and Saints-Eagles are both full of fascinating storylines.
But let’s focus on the Vikings hosting the Texans in a game that no one would’ve predicted to be a game-of-the-week candidate to start the season.
Minnesota and journeyman QB Sam Darnold have been one of the best early-season surprises. Some wrote their Week 1 win over the Giants off because, well, it’s the Giants. But after the Vikings stunned the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers in Week 2, it’s time to take this team seriously.
The undefeated Vikings get another tough test in Week 3 when they host C.J. Stroud and the 2-0 Texans. Minnesota defensive co-ordinator Brian Flores has the young Vikings defence playing well thanks in large part to his ability to disguise coverages and confuse opposing quarterbacks.
But Flores will have his hands full with Stroud and a Houston offence that boasts arguably the top WR trio in the league Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.
One team is going to head into Week 4 undefeated. Many would’ve expected that from the Texans, but no one saw it coming from the Vikings.
Forrest’s Favourites (Season record: 2-1, all odds courtesy of BetMGM):
Texans vs. Vikings — Pick: Texans -1.5 (-110): The Vikings will still be missing some of their top offence weapons in WR Jordan Addison and TE T.J. Hockenson plus WR Justin Jefferson left last week’s game with a thigh contusion. With a tight spread, we lean with Stroud and his full complement of pass-catching threats.
Chiefs vs. Falcons — Pick: Chiefs -3.0 (-115): The Falcons showed some life on Monday night in a dramatic win over the Eagles. But Mahomes and the Chiefs are a different animal that should win by more than a field goal.
Cowboys vs. Ravens — Pick: Over 47.5 (-110): Both teams come into the week desperate for a win and will look to things getting rolling on offence early. Each defence proved to have some holes last week as well as the Ravens gave up 26 points to the Raiders, and the Cowboys were thrashed for 44 by the Saints.
Full Week 3 Schedule (all times Eastern):
Thursday, Sept. 19
Jets 24, Patriots 3
Sunday, Sept. 22
New York Giants vs. Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Denver Broncos vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Carolina Panthers vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m.
Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m.
Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons, 8:20 p.m.
Monday, Sept. 23
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills, 7:30 p.m.
Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15 p.m.
