What would the playoffs look like with the Buffalo Sabres in it?
This is a question we’re seriously asking on March 15 as the team with the longest playoff drought is beginning to make things interesting in the East’s wild-card race.
The last time we saw the Sabres in the playoffs, they were eliminated in Round 1 by the Philadelphia Flyers in seven games in 2011. The last time we saw this franchise win a playoff series, they got all the way to the 2007 East Final against the Ottawa Senators, where their bid for an appearance in the Cup Final ended in five games.
This year was again shaping up to be one of disappointment as expectations have started to shift on this team. Acting as sellers at the deadline, including dealing out captain Kyle Okposo, the post-deadline talk around this team was all about the inevitable changes that would come this summer to shake up a group that has struggled to get to the next level. Even the coach is on the hot seat, as we wondered if Don Granato was the development coach who’d need to make way for the next guy to take them over the hump.
Now, we wonder if they might actually create a small miracle here and get in.
As we head into a weekend filled with games important to this playoff race, here’s our latest look at the overall playoff picture with a focus on some of the top storylines to watch … including the Sabres.
Who will have the burden of the Presidents’ Trophy curse?
Currently first in the NHL, the Florida Panthers may not be in the best spot for a Stanley Cup contender — as crazy as that sounds. As an No. 8 seed last spring, the Panthers knocked out the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Boston Bruins in the first round. In 2022, the Panthers won the trophy, but were swept out of Round 2 by Tampa Bay. When Colorado won the regular season in 2021, the Avalanche also were eliminated in Round 2. It’s actually kind of funny how often the league’s top team has more playoff success the year after doing it. The Presidents’ Trophy has been handed out 37 times, with the recipient winning the Stanley Cup just eight times. The last time it happened was in 2013 and the regular season winners haven’t gotten past the second round since 2015.
Is Patrick Roy the best coach of the second half?
Taking over the Islanders bench on Jan. 20, Patrick Roy certainly joined in too late for serious Jack Adams consideration, but you can’t deny his arrival was a turning point in their season that may end up in not just a playoff berth — New York could be a tough out if they get there. Under Lane Lambert ,the Islanders were 24th in offence (2.93 goals per game) and the identical ranking in defence (3.36 goals against per game), but since Roy’s arrival they are eighth (3.37 goals per game) and 11th (2.84 goals against per game) in the same stat categories. A recent six-game winning streak was snapped this week and has suddenly turned into back-to-back losses with Ottawa and the Rangers on deck this weekend.
Who will earn Toronto’s starting goalie job come playoffs?
Heading into this season, Leafs Nation assumed Joseph Woll would be its Game 1 playoff starter if healthy and that may still be the case. He started well enough until a high ankle sprain sidelined him nearly three months. Ilya Samsonov has had his own highs and lows this season and is currently on a run of four straight quality starts as Woll is just three games back from his injury. By MoneyPuck’s Goals Saved Above Expected, Woll is clearly the better stopper this season and he’s faced two tough starts against Boston, both losses, recently. How quickly can he return to form off a difficult ankle injury? There’s time to see how this settles.
Can Evgeny Kuznetsov earn another NHL contract and be a difference maker in Carolina?
Jake Guentzel was Carolina’s big goal-scoring pickup at this deadline, but Kuznetsov was the wild card with massive upside that we could look back on as the real key if the Hurricanes break through. It long ago fell apart for him and Washington and he was moved right after returning from the Player Assistance Program, so Kuznetsov needs time to fit in. Through four games, Kuznetsov has scored a goal and has already been bumped up to centre the second line between Guentzel and Martin Necas. When Kuznetsov has been on the ice, the Canes have controlled over 73 per cent of the expected goals at 5-on-5, have outshot the competition 27-16, and outscored them 3-0. And Carolina is 3-1 since the deadline. Whatever motivations Kuznetsov has in Carolina, there’s little doubt one of them is that he’s playing for his NHL career there and getting another contract.
Will the Flyers hold off all the late charging teams?
It feels like a lot of people, and teams, have been eyeing the Flyers as the team most likely to cool off and fall out of this race as the season went on, but by the time the trade deadline rolled around they were still third in the Metro and straddled the line between buyer and seller. If they are going to fall off, this is about the time it’s going to happen. The Flyers were hammered 6-2 by Toronto on Thursday night and now have an upcoming very difficult stretch of games against Boston, Toronto, Carolina, Boston again, Florida and the Rangers. What do the Flyers look like coming out of that, knowing the Islanders are hard charging behind them in the division with two games in hand?
Will Buffalo make things interesting?
OK hear us out: Maybe Buffalo’s not quite done yet. Yes, yes, we know that climbing three teams and three points this late in the season in a loser point league is harder than it seems — objects in the mirror are most definitely not closer than they appear. But, look, they’ve already made up good ground in the past week or so. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has quietly been levelling up for a few months now, which is no small factor in all this. Bowen Byram’s arrival has injected some needed newness into the group and the bonus of someone coming from a winning culture who also has a Stanley Cup ring. Now these Sabres are building on a three-game winning streak that has included knocking off Detroit 7-3 and the Islanders 4-0, two of the teams they’re chasing. And Buffalo gets another crack at the reeling Wings on Saturday afternoon. If they can get out of that with another win, then next week’s four-game road trip through Seattle and Western Canada looms huge. The one thing to keep in mind? Buffalo has more games played than those immediately in front of them.
Nathan MacKinnon and the Art Ross, or Connor McDavid and 100 assists?
There’s a fascinating Hart Trophy conversation forming right now. With 30 points in his past 14 games, MacKinnon has gone on a tear and created space for himself atop the scoring race. McDavid has 35 points in his past 16 games, but he’s eight assists ahead of MacKinnon and chasing an historical milestone: only Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr and Mario Lemieux have ever reached 100 helpers in a single season. If McDavid hits that number and Zach Hyman is a 50-plus goal scorer, which finish will carry more weight in the MVP debate? (Honourable mention here to Auston Matthews’ chase for 70 goals, too.)
Will the Golden Knights come together, or hang on the edge until the end?
After earning back-to-back wins out of the trade market, the Golden Knights lost 4-1 in Calgary on Thursday night and haven’t allowed fewer than three goals in a game since Feb. 27. Much has been made of Vegas’ usage of LTIR or its deadline approach (or approach to transactions in general), but the fact is that this team missed the playoffs two years ago and currently holds the second and final wild-card spot in the West. On paper, this looks like it could be a scary team come playoffs and none of the chasing teams behind them are all that daunting. But at some point here, the Golden Knights are going to have to string some wins together and really separate from the pack, or pass the Kings ahead of them. Home games to New Jersey and Tampa Bay are up next.
Is Nashville emerging as a tough out, or be just happy to get in?
It wasn’t that long ago the Predators were facing a sell-off that might have included their best player in Juuse Saros, which all seemed to solidify after an embarrassing 9-2 loss to Dallas on home ice. We all know the cancelled U2 concert that followed, but ever since that defeat the Predators have won 11 of 13 and haven’t lost in regulation. They also have the NHL’s top offence (3.88 goals per game) since that game and Saros has started returning to form with a .921 save percentage since Feb. 1 (a stretch that includes that ugly Stars game). Momentum means so much heading into the playoffs and though there’s lots of time left to cool down again, the Predators face only six teams currently in a playoff spot over their final 15 games. Remember in 2022 when Calgary Flames coach Darryl Sutter said that whichever team was unlucky enough to draw Colorado in the first round was a “waste of eight days”? He was pretty right about that, and the Preds were the tough-draw team that was swiftly swept aside. This time, they may not be such a pushover for the teams at the top.
Who won the trade deadline arms race?
We might not really know the answer to this until the dust settles on the post-season, but with so many of this year’s key players on the trade market moving to Western Conference teams, the first effect will be on this playoff race. Colorado made the most change around its core, Edmonton most aggressively fine-tuned a specific need on its roster, while Vegas, Vancouver, Dallas and Winnipeg all went big-game hunting. Heck, even Nashville did a little adding. In the coming weeks, we’ll continue to analyze how the late arrivals fit in with these rosters and the impact they have on the playoff race. There’s no room for error in this packed conference.
Several interesting goalie situations
The Los Angeles Kings, it’s believed, tried to go big and get Linus Ullmark for their crease, but ultimately ended up not doing anything with the position, leaving Cam Talbot as the starter and David Rittich as the backup. In Dallas, Jake Oettinger is their heavy usage starter, but the 25-year-old has notably not been up to his par this season, with an .899 save percentage. He’s allowed four or more goals in four of his past 10 starts. Thatcher Demko is injured and out of Vancouver’s lineup for now, and though no alarm bells have sounded off yet, we’ll see how this takes shape down the stretch. The Avalanche didn’t add any more experience in net so it’s all on Alexandar Georgiev, who was in net last year when the Avs were upset in Round 1. As much as we talk about how strong these teams are at the top in the West, some have goalie situations we look at with a raised eyebrow.
