Three and a half weeks.
That’s all we have left in the 2021-22 regular season, a marathon of a journey following last season’s 56-game sprint. A bad stretch now could either end your season, or leave you entering the post-season with a whole lot of uncertainty and lack of confidence.
It’s too late to be peaking early now -— teams that begin to heat up in April may just be able to ride that into May or June.
Every game has some sort of meaning now. So, once again, we look at the playoff picture today and some storylines to watch for the rest of the week.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
If the playoffs started today, these would be our Eastern Conference first-round matchups:
(A1) Panthers vs. (WC2) Capitals
(A2) Maple Leafs vs. (A3) Bruins
(M1) Hurricanes vs. (WC1) Lightning
(M2) Rangers vs. (M3) Penguins
Can the Leafs still catch Florida for first in the Atlantic?
Toronto at Florida: Tuesday, April 5, 7 p.m. ET
In Toronto, the next praise or panic, peak or valley, is seemingly always just a game or two away. And as we wake up Tuesday morning the Leafs, fresh off a 6-2 win over Tampa Bay and in the midst of a five-game winning streak, are on the rise again. If they manage to come out of Florida with a win against the Panthers, the confidence around this team will take off into the stratosphere.
To be sure, there is a lot going for this team right now. Jack Campbell is back and has two wins and a .924 save percentage since returning, showing no ill effects yet from a rib injury that kept him out. Mark Giordano has been a fantastic fit since the trade deadline and now it looks as though Jake Muzzin will return to the lineup for the first time since Feb. 21. And, of course, Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews are toying with the NHL right now — Marner on a 10-game point streak and Matthews tying Rick Vaive’s franchise record for 54 goals in a season. He’ll have a chance to break that mark in Florida Tuesday.
The most attainable regular-season goal for the Leafs now is to claim the second spot in the Atlantic and first-round home-ice advantage against Tampa Bay or Boston. And that’s no small thing. But could they achieve something bigger? The Leafs start Tuesday seven points behind the Panthers for first in the division and both teams have 13 games remaining. That is a tall ask, no question, but a regulation win would put them five points back and the two teams still play each other again on April 23.
Florida could all but lock up the division with a win tonight. But if the Leafs win? Maybe there’s still room for a chase — and can you imagine the expectations for Toronto if they entered the playoffs on that sort of a run?
Can the Capitals stop their slide and enter the playoffs on a high note?
Tampa Bay at Washington: Wednesday, April 6, 7:30 p.m. ET
When you get to the playoffs, it often matters less how many points you ended the 82-game season with, and more how you’re playing when the post-season begins.
The Capitals aren’t moving up or down anymore, nine points behind Tampa and 11 up on the chasing Islanders. Washington will be the second wild card in the East and will meet the conference’s No. 1-ranked team come playoffs. Today that would be the Florida Panthers, 8-2-0 in their past 10 and on a four-game winning streak. Washington has lost two in a row and most concerning is this: Since Feb. 1 the Caps are 6-10-2 against teams currently in a playoff spot, 22nd in the league by expected goals percentage and 20th by shots for percentage.
On Wednesday Washington will be facing a Tampa Bay team hungry for a bounce back, and then get Pittsburgh and Boston on the weekend. It’s time for them to start picking up confidence and momentum against meaningful opponents again.
Penguins-Rangers first-round preview?
Pittsburgh at NY Rangers: Thursday, April 7, 7 p.m. ET
There is still some sorting to do within the Metro Division’s top three, but with Carolina holding a four-point lead and a game in hand, it does look most likely that the Penguins and Rangers will meet in the first round. If so, we’re getting a preview on Thursday night.
These teams have met twice in the past two weeks, both Ranger wins. And those two games in fact were some of the better ones played lately by Igor Shesterkin, who has hit a bit of a bump as his Hart Trophy push heads into the final days.
The winner of Thursday’s game may even still have enough runway to catch the Hurricanes for first in the division — Carolina has only won four of its past 10 and is not exactly pulling away.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
If the playoffs ended today, these would be our Western Conference first-round matchups:
(C1) Avalanche vs. (WC2) Golden Knights
(C2) Wild vs. (C3) Blues
(P1) Flames vs. (WC1) Predators
(P2) Kings vs. (P3) Oilers
Are the Minnesota Wild levelling up?
Minnesota at Nashville: Tuesday, April 5, 8 p.m. ET
If you were to put the Stanley Cup contenders in tiers, where would the Minnesota Wild slot in?
If we start with the back-to-back champs in Tampa Bay, this season you’d have to also place Florida, Colorado, Carolina and maybe even Calgary in that top grouping. You might be inclined to place Toronto there, too. That would leave a second tier of contenders including the likes of Pittsburgh, Boston and the Rangers.
The Wild are absolutely smashing lately. They’re 9-0-1 in their past 10, winners of two in a row and their only loss since the trade deadline was a 4-3 decision to Pittsburgh in overtime. The Wild have gotten at least one point in every game since March 13. That loss came at home to Nashville, who they’ll meet again on Tuesday.
The most consequential change since that game was the addition of Marc-Andre Fleury, who is 3-0-0 with a 1.34 GAA and .958 save percentage with the Wild. This is a team we knew could be dangerous — young, exciting, with some muscle added at the deadline too in Nic Deslauriers and Jacob Middleton. We know that tends to be a factor in the post-season and, besides, this is a team that challenged Vegas to a full seven-game first-round series in 2021.
But above all else, a game-changing goalie can lift your team up a tier all by himself and Fleury could do that here for the Wild. Is this recent stretch just a run of good luck, or are the Wild really levelling up into a team that maybe could come out of the Western Conference?
Calgary Flames: Controllable speed wobble or concerning turn of events?
Calgary at Anaheim: Wednesday, April 6, 10 pm. ET
Calgary at San Jose: Thursday, April 7, 10:30 p.m. ET
The Flames have been a fortunate team this season on the injury front — they have far and away the fewest man-games lost, though recently that number has started to tick up again. They aren’t missing their most important players by any stretch, but depth is being tested right now. And, this close to the playoffs, it’s probably a good challenge to have.
The problem was that the Flames had been dropping some games recently and went into their Monday nighter in Los Angeles with just four wins in their past 10. Teams have tough stretches over an 82-game season, so there’s nothing unusual or generally concerning here. The timing of the slide could lead to playoff questions if they don’t turn it around though — you don’t want to walk into the post-season in the midst of the worst stretch of hockey you’ve played all season. And a continued slide could open the door for another team in the Pacific to pass them.
That’s why Monday’s 3-2 win over the Kings was so huge. It earned the Flames two points (and the Kings crucially none) against a direct competitor and opened up a five-point lead again. The Flames still have three games in hand, too.
Anaheim and San Jose represent lighter competition on this California swing and then the Flames will finish the road trip in Seattle, which should allow for more opportunity to get points. Time to end the speed wobble and really pull away.
What will the Dallas Stars do with their games in hand?
NY Islanders at Dallas: Tuesday, April 5, 8:30 p.m. ET
Toronto at Dallas: Thursday, April 7, 8:30 p.m. ET
For the longest time, the Western Conference wild-card race has had an asterisk next to it. Whichever teams were in those two positions may have had a points advantage on those around them, though there was always this important caveat: the Dallas Stars had games in hand on everyone.
Even today when you open the standings you’ll see Dallas is one point behind Vegas for the second wild-card berth, but they have three games in hand still. The Stars have also won seven of their past 10 games so they’re not backsliding or anything. They have the eighth-best points percentage in the West and should probably be favoured to end up in the wild card.
Of course, having the games in hand is one thing. Doing something with them is another altogether.
The Stars play seven games in the next two weeks to Vegas’ five, so this advantage they have is about to evaporate, making this upcoming stretch vital. Dallas gets the Islanders, a non-playoff team with four straight wins and a dangerous spoiler, and Toronto next, neither of which will be soft touches. Vegas plays once more this week, against Vancouver.
Oilers have two gettable points before tough seven-game stretch
Edmonton at San Jose: Tuesday, April 5, 10:30 p.m. ET
Edmonton at Los Angeles: Thursday, April 7, 10:30 p.m. ET
Los Angeles’ loss to Calgary on Monday opened the door for the Oilers to charge through and try to claim second place in the Pacific. With two games in hand heading into Tuesday’s action, the Oilers could take control of that spot with a win over the San Jose Sharks. It’s a couple of points they should be getting.
At this time of year you have to take advantage of every window of opportunity that comes your way, because who knows what challenge awaits over the next hill? After San Jose, the Oilers’ next seven games are against: Los Angeles, Colorado, Minnesota, Nashville, Vegas, Dallas and Colorado again. It’s not inconceivable for that stretch to turn into a nightmare.
