The last day of the NHL’s regular season is April 18, meaning we have about a month of games left before matchups lock in for the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
With a tight race in the Eastern Conference wild-card race, hopefuls hanging out just below the cut off line in the West and a variety of tight races at the top of each division, we should consider which teams hold the advantage in tie-breaker scenarios.
First, a reminder on what the NHL’s tie-breakers are. Assuming every team finishes its 82-game schedule, the first tie-breaker is wins in regulation (RW), which is every win you get before going to overtime or the shootout. If teams are tied in regulation wins, the next tie-breaker is regulation and overtime wins (ROW), meaning only shootout wins are excluded. The third tie-breaker is total wins overall, including the shootout (W). If still tied, the fourth tie-breaker is head-to-head matchups, with the edge going to the team that put up more points against the team it’s tied with. The final two tie-breakers, then, would be goal differential and, finally, total goals scored.
So, which teams are in the best spot as far as the tie-breakers go?
If we look to the East, the Washington Capitals — who just moved into the second wild-card spot Monday night — are in a good spot with 27 regulation wins, three more than the Detroit Red Wings, who are right behind them. And, although Buffalo’s loss to Detroit over the weekend was a significant blow to the Sabres’ chances, Monday’s 6-2 win in Seattle started off a very important western road swing on a positive note. Four points back of Washington (with two more games played than the Capitals), the Sabres also have 27 regulation wins.
The New York Islanders, on the other hand, are probably going to have to get over everyone and avoid the tie-breaker to get in, since they have only 21 regulation wins, which is more than only Montreal, Ottawa and Columbus in the conference, well off the pace for most of the playoff contenders. The wild card here remains the Philadelphia Flyers (more on them shortly), who have lost two in a row, sit third in the Metro, but are in a playoff spot by only two points. They have 26 regulation wins, one fewer than chasing Washington and also one fewer than New Jersey, if you think there’s any way they can make a late charge despite going 3-7-0 in their past 10.
As far as the top of the divisions go in the East, the Florida Panthers are six regulation wins clear of the Boston Bruins, who lead the league with the Islanders in points gained by overtime losses this season. In any tie-breaker there, the Panthers are in the driver’s seat. Meantime, in the Metro, the Rangers have two more regulation wins than the Hurricanes.
Out West, the Nashville Predators have grabbed control of their destiny over the past month. Undefeated in regulation since Feb. 17, all of the Predators’ 12 wins in that time have come in regulation, separating them by four over Vegas. We don’t expect Nashville to challenge for a top-three spot in the Central Division, but if that were to happen, the Predators hold a two-win advantage over the Dallas Stars in the first tie-breaker.
This is also a reminder that Vegas’ place in the playoffs is by no means a sure thing. Four points up on St. Louis with a game in hand, the Golden Knights have only one more regulation win than the Blues and two more than the Minnesota Wild, who are five points back. And we should give a nod to the Calgary Flames, who are probably out of the running at eight points behind, but they have just as many regulation wins (28) as the Blues.
Looking at the top of the Central Division, Winnipeg, Colorado and Dallas each have 91 points, with the Jets holding a game in hand on both teams and also the advantage in the first tie-breaker. The Jets have 38 regulation wins, more than any team in the NHL, two up on Colorado and eight up on Dallas, which will surely have to beat either team in points to get out of third place. The tightest race in the Pacific seems to be between Vegas and Los Angeles for third place, and a Round 1 date with the Edmonton Oilers. With the same amount of games played as of Tuesday, the Kings have one more regulation win than the Golden Knights.
This is shaping up to be another big week in the playoff race, with roughly 15 or fewer games to go for most teams. Here’s a look at the teams we have in focus right now:
Philadelphia Flyers
This is an absolutely huge run of games against tough playoff opponents that we could look back on as the make-or-break portion of their schedule. After losing 6-2 to Toronto and 6-5 to Boston in their past two games, the Flyers play the Leafs again on Tuesday, followed by Carolina, Boston again, Florida and the New York Rangers. After that, they’ll play just two teams currently in a playoff spot over the final nine games of the season (Rangers and Capitals).
Curiously, the Flyers are scratching their captain and 2020 Selke Trophy winner Sean Couturier for Tuesday’s game against the Leafs. With Couturier on the ice at 5-on-5 this season, the Flyers have controlled 56.79 per cent of all shot attempts (second on the team) and 54.64 per cent of all expected goals, but just 48.35 per cent of all actual goals. Over the past month, however, those expected goals have slipped below 50 per cent and the Flyers have been outscored 10-2 when Couturier has been on the ice at 5-on-5 since Feb. 19.
“I feel like I’ve been putting the work in for a while,” Couturier said Tuesday morning.
“I know I’ve been struggling. Trying to work on my game. Definitely frustrated the way I’ve been treated, I guess, lately. But it is what it is.”
Couturier played just 11:10 in Saturday’s loss and has been held to fewer than 15 minutes played in seven of his past nine games. So, what has coach John Tortorella told him that he wants to see?
“Just need to see more,” he told reporters. “Still looking to find out what that is. I’m trying every game, it’s not like I’m just sitting around doing nothing.”
We do wonder about the effect trading Sean Walker has had on this group. One of the best Flyers blueliners this season in terms of on-ice shot, expected goals and actual goals percentage, since trading him to Colorado the Flyers as a team have been outscored 15-7 at 5-on-5 and their penalty kill, where Walker averaged over two minutes a game, has been 31st in the league at 62.5 per cent after being one of the top units through the season.
Washington Capitals
Amazingly, the Capitals are back in a playoff spot after stringing together three straight wins. With Toronto, Carolina, Winnipeg, Detroit, Toronto (again) and then Boston all up next, the Caps — like the Flyers — face a difficult stretch of games.
The craziest thing you might immediately notice about the Capitals is their glaring minus-27 goal differential, which is better than only Montreal and Columbus in the Eastern Conference.
Since the first year of the salary cap era, in 2005-06, there have been 15 full, 82-game seasons and only 13 teams have qualified for the playoffs with a negative goal differential. It’s become harder to do, as well: the Dallas Stars, with a minus-8 goal differential in 2021-22, were the last team to do it and, before that, Ottawa’s minus-2 as the No. 2-ranked team in the Atlantic did it. In the first five years of the cap era, eight teams got in with a negative goal differential.
The team with the worst goal differential that got into the playoffs in this era was the 2011-12 Florida Panthers, who won the Southeast Division (but had the sixth-most points in the East) with a minus-24. They lost in six games to New Jersey.
The Caps have been trending up in this regard, however, and need to keep pushing that to actually get in. Since Feb. 1, Spencer Carbery’s team is 12th in the NHL by points percentage with a plus-4 goal differential.
With three wins in four games since the trade deadline, the Golden Knights are going to remain a team of interest in this race, at least until they get out of the wild card and create separation. And, with the Kings 2-3-0 since they stood pat at the deadline, perhaps Vegas will begin moving up in the Pacific before long.
What we should point out, however, is that since the All-Star break, Adin Hill has posted a save percentage below .900 and has allowed three goals or more in six consecutive starts.
The good news for their fans is that Vegas is beginning to get healthy again. Alec Martinez returned on Sunday and played over 18 minutes. William Carrier has been back for the past two games, and Jack Eichel has played over 21 minutes in four of his past five games and has seven points in his past four.
“It’s hard every night when you’re missing personnel, and we’ve seen it this year, we’re not at the level we want to be, our game isn’t there and where we expected to be in terms of points,” Knights coach Bruce Cassidy told reporters. “That’s life some years, and you gotta get through it.
“I think it’s important now that we’re healthy. Probably more important now than at the beginning of the year. If you’re ever able to time it out, you’d like to have it down the stretch when points are at a premium.”
But still, there are two hugely important players out. We know Mark Stone won’t return until at least the playoffs, and just when he comes back in the post-season remains to be seen. But trade deadline pickup Tomas Hertl — the acquisition that set off debate on LTIR — still hasn’t played a game for Vegas as he works his way back from a knee injury.
“With Tomas, there’s some uncertainty when he’ll be back in the lineup,” Cassidy continued.
Vegas gets the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday — a game that can be seen on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ — followed by games against non-playoff teams Seattle, Columbus and St. Louis up next.
