When David Pastrnak scored for the Boston Bruins in overtime of Game 7 against the Toronto Maple Leafs, my seven-year-old son produced his first sports tears. Not because he’s a Leafs fan, or even a huge hockey fan, but more because he was into staying up past his bedtime to watch hockey with his Dad, and that goal marked the end of those nights.
I mention this only because I had some Big Feelings myself after that goal. Not tears, but a pit gnarled in my stomach as my first clear thought was: “I don’t know if I can talk myself into that group again for another 82-game regular season.”
I knew I’d be back doing Kyper and Bourne, back on the regional broadcasts, and back writing about the team. For years I’ve believed they were capable of playoff success, but in that moment, I didn’t know if I could keep believing in them. And that would make for an awfully long season.
But.
But I am nothing if not rational. And so, after some rational analysis of this season’s roster, it brings me no joy to report that I think the Leafs are the favourite in the Atlantic Division, and that yet again I believe they’ve got the framework of a successful team.
Maybe if I just bang my head against this wall a little harder…
That’s not to say they will definitely find success, just that there’s enough on this roster for it to work. And for any team on September 25, that’s the only positive place to start from.
Anyway, enough big picture stuff. Leafs camp is in full swing and I’ve got some early season thoughts and opinions, so let’s check in on where we’re at.
Anthony Stolarz and Joe Woll are two good bets
This duo doesn’t have the proven histories of division rivals Andrei Vasilevskiy, Sergei Bobrovsky or even Jeremy Swayman. But for a combined $3.26 million against the cap this season, they’ve placed two extremely strong bets.
Joseph Woll has received high technical praise from every goalie analyst we’ve had on Real Kyper and Bourne over the years, and his “goals saved vs. expected last year” saw him inside the league’s top third of NHL goalies. Meanwhile, Stolarz’s numbers in the same category were lights out. Whether you use SportLogiq or MoneyPuck (or any other resource I could find), Stolarz was at least a top-10 goalie last year in that particular stat.
He’s also just 30 years old, so it’s possible that he’s more than ready to handle an increased workload.
Yes, Woll is injury-prone and Stolarz doesn’t have the history of heavy games played in the NHL yet. But the Leafs were bottom-10 in team save percentage last year. If these guys manage a league average save percentage number, the team will be a few standings points better.
Marner’s value, reputation, and future
Like Mitch Marner, I want to answer this contract question once, get it out of the way, and not talk about it again for a while (I’m sure it won’t ever come up on Real Kyper and Bourne will it?).
The guy is an awesome hockey player, full stop. I do not believe for a second that someone with his talent is going to tease 100-point seasons on repeat and never have a good playoff. It’ll happen for him. There is a laundry list of players who struggle in the post-season and eventually put it together in the big moments, including Florida’s Aleksander Barkov, who had disappointing post-seasons before winning his Cup.
I also don’t believe that letting Marner walk and signing two $6 million UFA defencemen suddenly makes this team better. It’s Toronto’s game-breakers who make them contenders. If you’ve followed me for some years, you know I’m huge on those difference-making players, and when your team has them you’re lucky and should hang on to that dollar rather than aim for loose change totalling $1.10.
That said, Marner has unequivocally been a post-season ghost, failing to show up when the chips are down:
Only a few players have a more stark drop-off in points per game (particularly in the past four years or so) from the regular season to the playoffs than Marner. You just cannot pretend those things aren’t true. He hasn’t stepped up yet, so you shouldn’t have to pay him like he has.
I also think it’s sub-optimal for the player and team to have these negotiations go on all year, making each game a referendum on his worth. And finally, this is an opportunity for Marner to show he prioritizes winning and the team by not grinding for every conceivable nickel on this deal, considering how well he did on the previous one.
If there are some level heads in his corner (and it sounds like there are), you’d love to see him sign a deal for four or five years that pays well and makes everyone happy. John Tavares’ money drops off after this season, so if you have to give Marner $11.5 million for four or five years, I think most fans would be quite happy.
This reminds me of when LeBron James “took his talents to South Beach” and everyone was mad, and he tried to play the villain. He’s no villain, and neither is Marner. They’re guys who want to be loved, and care what people think.
If he digs in here on another negotiation, his reputation in Toronto will take a blow. If he just signs for a reasonable number, he can let his play do the talking and not have the conversations be about his worth versus his contract, but rather about what a great player he is.
And I think for everyone – him, the team, the fans – it would be a lot more fun.
Willy can handle centre
I was with the Toronto Marlies when Nylander was playing centre for them, and I can confirm that he can do it. As fast and strong as he is means that even if he makes small errors here and there, he should be able to recover.
Obviously, the concern with Nylander is never “can he physically do it,” as I’m not sure anyone in the NHL has a more complete tool kit. It’s more “will he do it” — which means “will he pay attention for 82 games” — and the answer to that is “no.” He will have some run of mid-season games where he gets beat from the wall, or he’s too far ahead of the play, and everyone calls into question his ability to play the position altogether. Indeed, over a full regular season, I do think you’d get better results from a line centered by Mitch Marner, just because he pays more consistent attention.
But in the playoffs, against stronger, elite centres, I like Nylander’s chances of driving a line from the centre position much more. He’s shown he’s engaged in the post-season now with some consistency (much like in overtimes, which also get his attention), and so I think the Leafs are better off living with some Willy Whoopsies this regular season in order to give him the reps, and get the best version of him at centre in the playoffs.
Where to use Max Domi
I am a contrarian within myself when it comes to Max Domi, as I simultaneously think he’s a good and useful player, yet also can’t ever see where or how exactly it makes sense to use him. (At his contract though, he should be plus value wherever he plays.)
What I’m convinced won’t work, though, is pairing Domi with Nylander because they’re both inconsistent with the game’s details and are better playing with a couple players who do it the right way. That pair would give back too many freebies to the opposition to justify whatever they might create.
According to Dobber Hockey’s “Frozen Tools,” they played on a line with five variations last year (the third player varied including Tavares, Bertuzzi, McMann, Robertson, and Kampf), and zero of those five lines finished above 50 per cent in shot attempts. The most used one (with Bertuzzi) was just about 45 per cent in 109 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey.
What baffles me is how little run Domi has gotten with Marner, but more specifically, with Matthews and Marner. The two London Knights have some junior hockey history together, the Leafs have been weak on the left side, and Matthews is built to play with passers, but guess how many total minutes Domi played with Matthews and Marner in the regular season last year?
The answer: 10.
Ten minutes and 12 seconds to be exact, in which the shot attempts were 12-3 Leafs, the actual shots were 7-1, and goals – an important category – were 2-0 for Toronto.
I don’t know if it would work – they’re both pass-first guys who slow the game a bit, so maybe that’s too redundant. But if nothing else, the Leafs should probably just check in to see if it works?
Max Pacioretty hot start
The Leafs aren’t loaded at wing, I know, but I’m just not sure I get the Max Pacioretty thing unless there’s some reason to believe he’s the same guy from three or four years ago (and the fact he’s had two awful injuries is not an argument for the player to bounce back, unfortunately). Like many people, I’d rather see Nick Robertson get his opportunities, as I think there’s still upside with him and I’m not sure what the best-case scenario is for Pacioretty.
He seems like another great player at the end of a career that the Leafs have tried previously in Joe Thornton and Jason Spezza and Patrick Marleau and Wayne Simmonds.
If you’re a skeptic like me, the first pre-season game was the worst-case scenario because frankly, I didn’t think Pacioretty was very noticeable against Ottawa’s AHL lineup. But, he did tip one in, and shot another into the goalie’s crest that somehow snuck through, so his stat line looked great.
They’re going to sign him, as has been reported by our own Elliotte Friedman. And he won’t hurt the Leafs. He’s a good steady player, and he’ll be cheap. I just don’t know how much gas is left, and if we’re being honest, he’s probably not sure either, and we’re all about to find out together.
Let’s go shorter here for some final thoughts:
Easton Cowan
I have been at tryouts where the puck doesn’t come my way, and you think “I haven’t played bad, it’s just nothing’s really happened out there.”
Some of that is bad luck, but not all of it. Usually, I wasn’t ready for that level.
Maybe Cowan will find it as camp goes on here, but so far I’ve watched six periods of his pre-season and have had very few moments where I’ve thought “Oh nice” about something he’s done (he drew a penalty!).
He hasn’t shown enough so far for me to think he’s NHL ready yet. That said, I’m not a guy who locks in an opinion of a player he’s barely seen after just two games. I’ll keep the mind open and see Cowan can change the beginning of my assessment.
Everybody loves Grebenkin
And I do too.
Craig Berube has called him out by name, he made a couple slick offensive plays in the pre-season, and he held his own in a fight, which is enough to get on everyone’s radar. The fight thing is noteworthy, not because it mattered in the game, but because it showed his willingness to engage and put himself on the line, it showed a lack of fear, and someone who was trying to make an impression. It’s hard to get yourself to fight when you aren’t a fighter.
That said, I’d love to see Grebenkin light up the American League before getting an NHL shot. Let him be the guy on the power play handling the puck, the guy out in the final minute, the guy who matters to his team. He’s not slow, but his stride is still ugly (he kind of straight legs it), and so I’d love to see the organization foster the gifts that are clearly there, rather than have him play eight minutes a night and get yelled at for not dumping it in.
He’s a good prospect, I’m just not sure he’s ready either.
Top-10 offensive zone
The NHL’s EDGE data site lists the top 10 teams in zone time (but just the top 10, because we wouldn’t want to hurt the feelings of the other 22 teams), and the Leafs didn’t crack that elite group. They’ve got way too much talent and, with their new additions on the back-end, way too many guys capable of moving the puck to not be in that group. It should be a massive priority for the team this season: live in that offensive zone.
What was with the loaded roster for Game 1?
It’s a meaningless oddity, but it’s crazy how loaded the Leafs roster was for the first pre-season game. Go back and check their pre-season rosters in seasons past and you’ll notice week one is usually a hodgepodge of AHL guys, and week two is usually “We’ll dress our real guys at home, you dress yours in your building”.
My sense is Berube is trying to get the shape of this team fast, which means aiming to be ready for Game 1 of 82, not game 10.
As someone who’s made noise about what should be the Maple Leafs’ goal this season – winning the Atlantic and drawing an easier first round opponent – I like the thinking so far.
