Are the Toronto Raptors any good?
With more than 80 per cent of the regular season already played and only 13 games left on the schedule, you would think there would be a definitive answer by now.
This is a team, after all, in 11th place in a 15-team conference and nine games under .500.
Objectively? Not very good.
Without the benefit of the play-in tournament, which extends a chance at the post-season to teams that finish ninth and 10th, the Raptors would need to go on a 10-3 run – and hope the three teams ahead of them stagnated – to have a chance at catching the Charlotte Hornets for the eighth spot. And all that would guarantee is two playoff dates in a near-empty arena in Tampa against one of the Eastern Conference heavyweights.
Realistically, their season – the strangest in franchise history – would be over.
But there is a play-in tournament and the Raptors are only a half-game out of 10th place, 2.5 out of ninth and 3.5 out of eighth.
As the Raptors get set to put their four-game winning streak on the line against the improbable New York Knicks, winners of eight straight and sitting alone in fourth in the East, the possibility of nabbing a last-chance playoff spot has provided some late focus to a discombobulated season.
“It certainly gives us a sense of direction and purpose for what’s been, you know, a pretty inconsistent year with a lot of ups and downs and a lot of different moving parts,” said Raptors point guard Fred VanVleet. “So yeah, I mean we’re in a good spot right now, I think we have a collective understanding of what’s going on and day-to-day basis, you know and yesterday was a good start for us to all kind of be back out there together so we got to stay locked in and keep trying to improve each day, each practice, each game and we can live with where land.”
And there is some evidence – though you have to look for it – that within this version of the Raptors is the hint of a team that won an NBA title two years ago or, perhaps more relevantly, that was on pace for a 60-win season last year and nearly advanced to the Conference Finals despite inexplicably sub-par post-season performances by Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol.
At the very least, the Raptors are significantly better than their record, it seems safe to say:
Toronto is the only team in the NBA with a positive point differential (+0.9) that has a losing record. Based purely on their point differential, the Raptors would be seventh in the East.
The Raptors rank 13th in offensive rating and 13th defensively. There are only six other teams that are in the top half of the league in both categories, all of them – the Jazz, Suns, Clippers, Bucks, Nuggets and Celtics – considered teams that have legitimate aspirations of advancing to the Conference Finals or all the way to a title.
According to Expected Won-Loss models at Basketball-Reference.com and ESPN.com, the Raptors have performed like a 31-28 team, the six-victory gap between their actual record and their projected mark is tied with Milwaukee for the largest in the league.
The disconnect between their statistical performance and their win-loss mark is highly unusual: The Raptors are just the fifth team in 55 years to have a positive point differential and win 45 per cent of their games or less. If the season were to end today, Toronto’s .424 winning percentage would be the lowest for a team with a positive point differential in 45 years.
Break it down even further and there may be some more reason for optimism. Over a 22-game stretch after Toronto’s 2-8 start, and before they were laid low by COVID-19, the Raptors were 15-9 and had the second-best point differential in the East (3.9) and the second-best winning percentage behind Brooklyn and Milwaukee.
When the Raptors went 1-13 in March, that stretch seemed meaningless. More relevant was before and after their six or seven weeks of sold play Toronto was a combined 3-21.
But as the Raptors stabilized themselves with a 7-4 record so far in April, even while their key players were either injured or getting copious amounts of rest, it’s been harder to ignore the sense that a good team is trying to make itself heard.
The Raptors’ ‘core four’ of Kyle Lowry, VanVleet, Siakam and OG Anunoby have played sparingly together due to injuries, health and safety protocols and rest. When they took the floor together on Wednesday it was the first time since March 29.
But they still have the potential to make up four-fifths of a very good starting unit. They just needed some help at centre.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, lineups featuring the ‘core four’ but without centres Aron Baynes (relegated to the bench) and Alex Len (waived after seven games) have been highly effective, posting a point differential of +14.8, which ranks in the 98th percentile of four-man lineups with at least 100 possessions. Defensively, they have allowed just 104.7 points per 100 possessions, which is in the 96th percentile.
Is it a coincidence that the Raptors have gone 4-0 since using newly arrived centres Khem Birch and Freddie Gillespie in a platoon system? It’s too early to tell, but given Toronto has struggled with defensive rebounding and rim protection all season and have jumped significantly in both categories over their winning streak, it’s at least encouraging.
Raptors Newsletter
Similarly, after suffering due to a lack of depth all season due to injuries, COVID-19 and some uneven performances from players who lacked the development opportunities due to a highly compressed schedule, the large doses of playing time the Raptors coaching staff has been able to dole out to the likes of Yuta Watanabe, Malachi Flynn, Gary Trent Jr., Paul Watson and Gillespie in recent weeks could pay dividends, too.
“It’s a long season, when everyone’s healthy it’s just tough to give everyone minutes that they need to develop,” Raptors assistant coach Adrian Griffin said after practice Thursday. “That stretch where we had guys out was very instrumental for these young guys, they were getting minutes and experience that they probably wouldn’t have got otherwise so it’s good to see how they’re coming along.
“I think Yuta has been very impressive, we’re trying to get Gary acclimated to the way we want to play, Malachi. We’re treating it for Malachi, if you’re a point guard and you have Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry on your team and you get to learn from those guys and kinda mimic what they do on the floor. So, it’s been a really good stretch.
“You always try to find the positives when you’re going through any kind of adversity and having our main guys out was tough,” added Griffin. “But I thought our bench was able to really step up and we were able to get some quality minutes that they probably wouldn’t have got otherwise.”
So, the Raptors are rested, healthy, have seemingly fixed their hole at centre while being able to rely on more quality minutes from deeper in their lineup than they have all season.
What it all adds up to is what the final 13 games of the regular season will determine, but you have to like their chances.
How good are the Raptors? Probably a lot better than most people think.
