Oilers’ quarter-mark report: Grades, surprises, concerns

EDMONTON — The analytics say that the Edmonton Oilers are a pretty good team. The eye test disagrees.

Through 21 games and with a 10-8-2 record, the standings say Edmonton is a Pacific Division contender. The fact that three of its 10 wins were over Nashville — the only “good” team Edmonton has beaten is Vancouver — tells you it’s a middle-of-the-pack entity.

But, upon this writing, the Oilers are operating at about 55 per cent of their abilities — from the goalie, through the defence, to the moribund forward group — and they are four points out of the Pacific lead with 61 games to play. There is much time for improvement, and even more room to get better.

“We haven’t dug ourselves a hole that we can’t climb out of at this point of season,” said defenceman Darnell Nurse.

“We’re trying to find our way, find our identity,” added veteran winger Corey Perry, whose four goals put him ahead of Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Viktor Arvidsson and Vasily Podkolzin, the usual set of top-four wingers in Edmonton.

“You know, it’s not easy playing late and then coming back and ramping back up again. It’s hard. And as much as people say, ‘Oh, put that behind you,’ it’s still there. I’ve been there a few times.”

This team proved a year ago it could recover from a bad start. This start is average, but much better than a year ago

That’s where the hope lies.

“When you struggle early, know there’s more in the tank. More to look forward to. There’s more to give,” Perry said, looking around the Oilers dressing room recently. “That’s the bright side we have: there’s more in here.”

MOST ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT

Not a long list here.

Podkolzin has been good, but entirely unproductive. Young defenceman Ty Emberson looks like he can play, but he’s no Cody Ceci, for whom he was traded. Nurse has been dependable and productive, a nice development for Edmonton.

The big boys — Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid — have been awesome. But is anyone surprised at that?

MOST CONCERNING DEVELOPMENT

Plenty to chew on here:

• Hyman has three goals. On pace for 12 goals, he has averaged 39 the last three seasons.

• Nugent-Hopkins — a 104-point player two seasons ago — has nine points.

• Viktor Arvidsson has just 2-3-5 and has been hurt — again.

• Jeff Skinner, the other big UFA signing, has had zero impact. He’s lost his job to Podkolzin, who has zero goals.

• Goalie Stuart Skinner (3.33, .876) has been well below average. He is searching for his game.

Head coach Kris Knoblauch sees the metrics every day, and he likes what he sees — more than the scoreboard on many nights.

“Five-on-five, we’ve been great — besides scoring goals,” he said. “Defensive metrics, we’re No. 2 or 3 in the league. Offensive (metrics) says we should be two or three in the league.

“Now, keeping the puck out of the net and putting it in are two things that are very important. That’s where you think, over a long run, it’s going to level out, and I truly believe it will.”

Here are the offensive stats to back up Knoblauch’s claim, courtesy Sport Logiq: 

The last one being the big one.

Here are the defensive stats he speaks of:

But, again, the last one is the big one.

So, Knoblauch is tapping his foot, waiting for the goal scoring to revert to the mean, while pondering lineup changes.

“You have to be careful in changing a whole lot,” he cautioned, saying it could result in “not having the puck as much, whether you’re trying to score more goals, or get more chances. We’ve been playing pretty good defensive hockey. You just have to be careful, how much you change.”

Edmonton’s shooting percentage in all situations sits at 8.36 per cent — ranked 30th. Last season, it was 10.56 per cent (10th). Over the previous three seasons, that number is 10.85 per cent.

As such, the Oilers have the second best shots-for percentage in the NHL (56.35 per cent) but rank 20th in goals-for (46.40 per cent).

Their expected goals (54.02 per cent) ranks fourth. Their actual goals per game (2.76) however, ranks 20th.

Remember, a slow start last season ended in long run through the playoffs.

“It forces you to find your way out of those positions,” Nurse said. “And over the course of 82 games, this isn’t the only stretch of hockey that we’re going to play where we’re not feeling 100 per cent about ourselves. When it happens early in the year, it kind of brings out the grit in the group.”

TOP-SIX FORWARDS GRADE

Including Draisaitl (15 goals) and McDavid (25 points), this group gets a C-plus. But that is deceiving.

Without those two centremen — and of late, linemates — this group has been a train wreck. A D-minus, for sure.

Nugent-Hopkins is on a prolonged period of quiet games. Hyman has had shots and chances, but he’s hurt now and hasn’t been able to buy a goal. Skinner has been a major disappointment, Arvidsson a minor one.

Not good enough for these wingers, when playing with two world-class centremen every night.

BOTTOM-SIX FORWARDS GRADE:

Give ‘em a C.

They been all right, with kudos to Perry (four goals), Mattias Janmark (eight points) and Connor Brown (three goals). As a group, however, no better than average.

DEFENCE GRADE:

Based on the above stats, the blueline should get a C-plus.

Goaltending and the play of leader Evan Bouchard has really hurt this group. Bouchard has been poor defensively and cannot get a shot through to the net these days. Even Mattias Ekholm’s game has been below expectation.

On the other hand, Nurse has been excellent, as has Brett Kulak. The rest — Troy Stecher, Travis Dermott, Emberson — have held their own.

GOALTENDING GRADE

Easy: F.

Edmonton has the second-worst saves percentage in the NHL at all strengths (87.50 per cent), it’s 23rd at five-on-five (90.13 per cent) and dead last on the penalty kill (72.88 per cent).

It’s the most important position. It has to be better.

QUARTER-MARK AWARDS

MVP: Leon Draisaitl
Most improved player: Vasily Podkolzin
Best defensive player: Darnell Nurse

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