The WNBA playoffs have arrived — and, even more than in recent post-seasons, the title seems up for grabs.
A revamped format, in which the top eight teams reached the dance, includes a best-of-three first round, best-of-five second round and the league’s first-ever seven-game series in the Finals.
Many familiar stars — can I interest you in Breanna Stewart vs. Alyssa Thomas? — will be on display, though super sophomores Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese will be absent.
Still, it should be yet another dramatic run to the title, starting Sunday with the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx hosting the No. 8 Golden State Valkyries on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ at 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT.
Here’s one big question that could determine the fate of each playoff team:
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Watch Lynx vs. Valkyries Game 1 on Sportsnet
Superstar Napheesa Collier and the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx tip off the WNBA playoffs with a Game 1 matchup against the eigth-seed Golden State Valkyries in their post-season debut. Action begins at 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. ET with live coverage on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+
Minnesota Lynx (34-10)
Can they win the last game of the season?
At this point, it’s clear the Lynx are a juggernaut. After bursting onto the scene with 30 wins last season and reaching a decisive Game 5 of the 2024 Finals — only to lose to the New York Liberty — Minnesota established itself as the championship favourite this year as it romped to the No. 1 seed.
The Lynx are led by superstar forward Napheesa Collier, who just recorded the second 50-40-90 shooting line in league history and stands alongside Aces centre A’Ja Wilson as a top MVP candidate. Behind Collier, Minnesota boasts depth in spades from the likes of shifty guard Courtney Williams to steady Canadian Bridget Carleton.
In some ways, this title feels like the natural next step back to glory in what would be a record-breaking fifth trophy for Minnesota. It is championship or bust.
Las Vegas Aces (30-14)
Are they peaking at the right time — or will early-season concerns return?
To call the Aces’ season a tale of two halves would be underselling it. Las Vegas crawled along to a 14-14 record in its first 28 games, looking little like the team that won back-to-back championships in 2022 and 2023 and reaching a nadir with a 53-point defeat at the hands of the Lynx.
They haven’t lost since.
So which Aces will show up in the playoffs? Well, Wilson, the three-time MVP, is back to playing at her peak, and Jewell Loyd appears to have found her level as a replacement for longtime guard Kelsey Plum, who was dealt to Los Angeles in the off-season.
But head coach Becky Hammon referred to her team’s defence as “atrocious” during its middling start, and only one playoff team allowed more points per game.
Then again, these days, the Aces simply don’t lose.
Atlanta Dream (30-14)
Can Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard ascend to superstardom?
For years, basketball has been known as a strong-link sport — the team with the best player usually wins. For the Dream to mount a playoff run, they’ll either have to embrace that trend or overcome it.
Gray found her game when she joined the Dream in 2023, making three straight all-star games and leading an under-.500 Atlanta team to the playoffs each time, but failing to get a win once there. The 30-year-old posted highs in points, rebounds and assists in the regular season, but her play has slumped in prior playoffs, where her teams are 1-9.
Howard, the first overall pick in 2022, has yet to win a playoff game in her career. But under new head coach Karl Smesko, this is by far the best team she’s had around her, including veteran Brittney Griner coming off the bench. And her personal play has never wavered from her pedigree.
If Gray and Howard can rise to the occasion, Atlanta will be a force.
Phoenix Mercury (27-17)
How will the “new Big Three” establish itself?
It’s still weird watching the Mercury and not seeing Diana Taurasi, or Griner, or even Sophie Cunningham. But there’s a new trio in town in the form of Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally. Thomas, a six-time all-star, and Sabally, a three-timer, moved to the desert in the off-season to join Copper.
Through 44 games, it’s paid off. Now, they’re tasked with getting Phoenix its first title since 2014. Thomas, the veteran who posted a record eight triple-doubles, looks as good as ever. Sabally has fit in seamlessly while playing the most games of her career. And Copper has taken a slight step back in workload to help integrate her new teammates while maintaining her efficiency.
Phoenix stumbled with three straight losses to end the season, but it will have home court in the juiciest matchup of the first round.
New York Liberty (27-17)
How much does the regular season really matter?
The Liberty started 9-0 before succumbing to the injury bug for most of the season. They’re healthy again now, though, and they enter the post-season having won three straight. Still, a 15-17 stretch doomed New York to the fifth seed and a road-heavy path to repeat.
No, it would not be a surprise if Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Co. turn back into the squad that vanquished the two-time defending champion Aces and Lynx last season. But possibly having to go through Phoenix, Minnesota and Las Vegas would be no easy feat.
The Liberty’s roster is nearly identical to last season — the biggest changes coming with the off-season addition of Natasha Cloud and mid-season import of Emma Meesseman — so we know they can beat anyone. The question, given their seeding, is whether even that’s enough.
Indiana Fever (24-20)
Can they overcome Caitlin Clark’s absence?
Speaking of injuries, Indiana’s been hit with a hailstorm. Yes, Clark, the league-changing star, is out for the season with injury — but so too are five (!) of her teammates. Yet, as though ailments and absences have piled up, so have the victories.
Indiana enters the post-season on a three-game winning streak — and with two of its best players in Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell continuing to thrive. Boston, the unsung Fever hero amid Clark-mania, placed top-20 in points, rebounds and field-goal percentage. Mitchell, meanwhile, slotted third in points — behind Wilson and Collier — while playing every single game.
The depth may be thin, but Boston and Mitchell have the goods to propel a classic “nobody believes in us” playoff run.
Seattle Storm (23-21)
What is this team’s ceiling?
The Storm boast the most all-stars of any team with four in Skylar Diggins, Nneka Ogwumike, Gabby Williams and mid-season addition Brittney Sykes. They split the season series with the Aces and Lynx and took two of three from the Liberty, showing they could hang with the league’s best. Seattle also held more 30-minute leads than any team but Minnesota, which means you know what stat is coming next.
Yes, the Storm proceeded to lose eight of those 29 games in which they held an advantage entering the fourth quarter. An ominous sign for the playoffs, where the pace over 40 minutes more closely resembles the final frame in the regular season. Still, something about it, given the Storm’s talent and a championship coach in Noelle Quinn, doesn’t quite add up.
If the first three-quarters Storm show up for 40 minutes, then the Aces might be in for some trouble.
Golden State Valkyries (23-21)
How much hope can they provide for the Tempo and Fire?
The first expansion team in WNBA history to make the playoffs in Year 1, the Valkyries can already consider this season a success. Still, there are a pair of golden examples that this ride doesn’t have to be over just yet — the “We Believe” Warriors, who took down a highly-favoured and MVP-led top seed, and the “Golden Misfits” Golden Knights who shocked the NHL in their first year en route to a Stanley Cup Final appearance.
This Golden State squad carries the classic scrappy underdog mentality, built around defence, hustle and players like Veronica Burton, Janelle Salaun and Canadian Laeticia Amihere, who felt slighted that their previous teams deemed them expendable.
In the bigger picture, the Valkyries have provided plenty of promise for next season’s expansion teams — the Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire — as well as three more that are set to enter the league over the next few years. If they take down the mighty Lynx, the reverberations will be felt across the continent.
