With a week to go in the NHL season, the playoff picture isn’t entirely clear yet. But we’ve at least got it narrowed down to about 20 teams, with positioning still largely unsettled just about everywhere in the East, outside of the ever-disrespected Carolina Hurricanes, likely to win the conference.
In the West, the Avs have locked down the Presidents’ Trophy, and we’ve known the three Central Division teams that were going to finish 1-2-3 in whatever order since November. Meanwhile, the Jets and Predators are trying to run down the Los Angeles Kings for the right to waste eight days against Colorado, to steal Darryl Sutter’s line.
That’s a lot of jockeying to be done, but it’s time to be realistic. Who among these whopping 20-or-so teams can actually win the Stanley Cup? Who’s most likely, who’s a long shot?
Rather than breaking down each team, or looking at betting odds, I want to talk about how I see them in my head: in groups, or as the content-gods prefer, “tiers.” It’s never as clean as a straight ranking, but in clusters from “it’s possible” to “no shot,” there’s a story to be told.
Below is one man’s take after a year of daily hockey viewing, reading, and analyzing.
THE FAVOURITE
Colorado Avalanche
There’s a graph in the back-end of Sportlogiq that plots each team’s logo by expected goals for and against. The Avs create such an insane amount and defend so well that they aren’t in the same universe as the other 31 teams. They are unequivocally the favourite, with the only caveat being that they’re going to have one hell of a challenging second-round matchup.
-
-
Real Kyper and Bourne
Nick Kypreos and Justin Bourne talk all things hockey with some of the biggest names in the game. Watch live every weekday on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ — or listen live on Sportsnet 590 The FAN — from 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. ET.
THE CHALLENGERS
Edmonton Oilers
Carolina Hurricanes
Tampa Bay Lightning
The more I look at the Oilers’ numbers, remember their previous experiences, and see the path ahead of them through the playoffs, the more I think it’s a near-lock that they’ll get back to the conference final. They still create so much on offence and are locking it down better the other way of late.
Vegas has been wildly disappointing thus far, the Ducks are a negative goal differential team, and Connor McDavid is still Connor McDavid. Leon Draisaitl should come back. It’s just not hard to see the Oilers getting back to the final for a third straight year.
As for the rest of this tier: Carolina is going to exceed 110 points, they control play like few teams in the NHL do, they have a great D-corps, and they combine speed with work ethic. Their path through the mediocre Metro is not overly daunting. Say what you will about their goaltending, but it’s not like that division is loaded with elite goaltenders (among the playoff teams).
And Tampa Bay’s top guys are still proven winners and stars. We know they can win. It would not be a shock to see them go deep and for Andrei Vasilevskiy to get hot one more time.
THE HOPEFULS WITH A SHOT
Dallas Stars
Montreal Canadiens
Buffalo Sabres
Minnesota Wild
You’ll notice the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild here with the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres. That’s no mistake. Both the Stars and Wild share a very challenging path through to the conference final (they play against each other in Round 1, then presumably Colorado), and so it’s tough to say they’re among the most likely Cup winners.
But honestly, it’s not guaranteed that either of those teams are that much better than Montreal or Buffalo at this point of the season. The latter two have been red hot in the second half of the year, and with the Habs in particular, it just feels like they never lose. Both teams are fast and building up.
I don’t know if Tampa is that much better than Montreal or Buffalo, and so the path through the Atlantic (with the Bruins likely in that group) is attainable. The excitement in those cities will be real.
THE ABSOLUTELY-CAN-DO-ITS…IF
Vegas Golden Knights
Ottawa Senators
Goaltending. That’s the whole summary.
Goaltending is streaky, and if either of these teams started getting like a .910 from their goalies, they could absolutely go on a very serious run. These are two of the best teams in the NHL in terms of expected goals against, and in the playoffs, when you combine that with goaltending you’ve got the recipe for winning a lot of low-scoring, one-goal games.
THE “NOT VERY REALISTIC, BUT” GROUP
Pittsburgh Penguins
New York Islanders
Boston Bruins
The Penguins have defied most analysis this year, and they do still have super-HoFers at key points in their lineup. Joke all you like, but Stuart Skinner has felt the pressure of those moments before, and that’s not going to hurt him.
The Islanders, if they could get in, would be an extremely frustrating playoff out. They’ve got elite goaltending (Vezina incoming), sturdy vets who are built for the grind, and a few dynamic players who can make plays. I think they’re lowkey a crappy playoff draw.
And the Bruins, well, sure. An elite forward, a couple very good defencemen, and one of the league’s best goaltenders. The Habs and Sabres are hardly proven playoff winners. It could happen, maybe?
THE “THERE’S SOMETHING THERE, BUT NOT YET” GROUP
Utah Mammoth
Anaheim Ducks
Two totally different teams for me in terms of their Cup chances this year, but with something in common: the future. The Mammoth have really good underlying numbers and underrated players. They don’t quite have superstars — not yet — but they’re going to be a force for years to come.
Anaheim has bad defensive numbers, but so many big and exciting young forwards that it feels like they’re just getting started.
Neither group feels ready to take down numerous big dawgs though, do they?
THE “MOST UNLIKELY CUP CHAMPS IN NHL HISTORY” GROUP
Winnipeg Jets
Los Angeles Kings
Philadelphia Flyers
Detroit Red Wings
Connor Hellebuyck can still be as good as any goalie in hockey. If by some miracle the Jets made the playoffs, he could ride those post-Olympic vibes to like a .930 save percentage while their few elite offensive guys did their thing and, hey, you never know.
It’s a much harder case to make for the Kings, Red Wings and Flyers. Um… hockey is weird and anything can happen? The Kings won as an eight seed once before? Moritz Seider is awesome?
THE “GOT NO SHOT” GROUP
Columbus Blue Jackets
Nashville Predators
Two very mediocre teams that can win or lose on any given night. Can they win four of seven against the best teams in the league, four times, over two months? Alas, they cannot.
