MONTREAL — The only people who abhor small sample sizes more than data analysts are scouts. No matter how telling first impressions generally are, it’s their job to avoid putting too much stock into them.
They don’t jump to conclusions; they pedantically inch their way toward arriving at them, building profiles of players over multiple viewings. And they don’t complete those profiles without balancing their own opinions with data and intelligence they collect through conversations with anyone they can track down who’s close enough to a player to offer the context that would enable the deepest possible analysis.
And so, it was expected that a few of them might groan at the thought of having their early takes on Ivan Demidov published following the player’s 17th NHL game (regular season and post-season combined).
But, for your benefit, they agreed to play along — though only after being granted anonymity.
Five of them currently work for other teams, so putting their names next to their analyses would’ve been a non-starter.
The other two are hockey lifers I’ve been leaning on for analysis for the bulk of my 17 years covering the NHL. The first played nearly 1,000 games in the league, and the second is a master scout who has also served in nearly every other front-office capacity over four-plus decades in the league.
Combining their expertise with that of the five scouts we ran into at Canadiens games in Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver this past week, a comprehensive assessment of Demidov was built despite the 19-year-old phenom’s minuscule NHL sample size.
It was telling how little disparity there was in the answers to the three-question survey, especially with each participant not privy to what the others had to say.
The questions:
1. Who does Demidov remind you of (past or present players) and why?
2. What stands out to you most about his game?
3. What will he need to work on most to reach his ceiling as fast as possible?
Here are the answers, edited slightly for clarity and flow.
SCOUT 1
1. I don’t like comparison because it’s not fair to the player, but he has some of the good parts of Mitch Marner and Alex Kovalev when they started in the league. But, at the same time, he’s different from those two players in his compete level and strength at his age.
2. Patience, puck skills, and the willingness to want the puck on his stick in big moments of the game. Not intimidated by the moment.
3. Needs to get stronger, learn the defensive game, learn how to play predictably in his own zone — being structured, disciplined and consistent in your defensive habits so that your teammates (and even coaches) can anticipate what you’ll do to allow the defensive unit to rely on each other when chaos inevitably ensues in the D-zone. Predictable defenders stay on top of pucks, stay within system structures, and they don’t chase the play. As usual, young players take time to become consistent at this, but consistency in this department is key for a player to hit on his star potential.
HOCKEY LIFER 1
1. Demidov reminds me of Pavel Datsyuk, and not because of his skating but really because of his deceptiveness one-on-one and his ability to create space for himself and his teammates.
2. His one-on-one battles and his will to win them.
3. I think his skating. For how strong he is, he could and will become faster.
SCOUT 2
1. Offensively, he reminds me of Pavel Datsyuk. Not only by the way they are always on their inside edges when they have the puck, but in the way the brain, hands and feet are all working together to manipulate defenders and make plays. Similar quick and smooth handles with the puck, with great range and body control.
2. Demidov’s skill level and passing ability are off the charts. Already one of the most skilled and best passers in the NHL. Uses great deception and patience to open lanes to execute on high-end plays all over the offensive zone.
3. One area I think that he needs to improve to be one of the best offensive players in the NHL is his shot. Would like to see him be more of a shot threat. Having a one-timer from the flank or a shot that he can score from range would complete his offensive game.*
*This scouting report was filed before Demidov scored on a one-timer from mid-range in Montreal’s 4-3 win over the Canucks on Saturday.
SCOUT 3
1. A harder-working version of fellow Russian Evgeny Kuznetsov. It’s the east-west movement and the willingness to try anything with no fear.
2. Puck skills and skating to move east-west. His bravery to try anything.
3. Defensive-board play, and learning he has to shoot more when he’s in a great spot rather than passing to a player who might be in a worse spot than him.
HOCKEY LIFER 2
1. He reminds me a little of Paul Kariya in how elusive Paul was with the puck in tight areas. He was a great passer. Think 2002 Olympics with Mario Lemieux and his on-ice relationship with Teemu Selanne. Both players are masters of deception and precision.
2. His puck-possession skills are substantial. Can hold the puck a little longer in tight areas, a lot like what Peter Forsberg would do. Demidov does that so well, and that allows his teammates to break free from coverage and have better scoring opportunities.
3. He will need to work on his ability to chip pucks out of his own zone when defencemen pinch down on him. He will also need to work on his one-timing skills and developing a shot-first mentality when scoring opportunities become available.*
*This response also came before the Vancouver game.
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SCOUT 4
1. Skates like Macklin Celebrini. Brain and talent like Pavel Datsyuk. Some Nikita Kucherov in him when set up on the half-wall on the PP.
2. Offensive instincts. High-end skill and talent level.
3. He’ll need to get physically stronger and gain experience. You still need to be patient for those things, in my opinion.
SCOUT 5
Combining 1. and 2.: What stands out most about his game is his offensive acumen, his instincts, his feel, and his high-end talent. The puck seems to find him constantly in the offensive zone. His elusiveness and creativity are special. You don’t see a lot of players with that innate ability to find space and distribute pucks in tight, especially with the attention he draws from opponents. He can beat you in lots of ways when the confidence is rolling; he’s a deceptive shooter and playmaker, the likes of Kirill Kaprizov, Nikita Kucherov, Artemi Panarin and Elias Pettersson (when he’s at the top of his game).
3. Tough, based on a limited viewing of the player, to evaluate his barriers/limitations to growth. But Martin St. Louis will need to be able to trust him defensively against top players with the little details. Seems like he’s given quality offensive-zone starts and opportunities, but struggled to transition the game out of his own zone under pressure, which is common for young, learning, high-end offensive players who will focus on production and stats rather than the “details” that help you win.
With that being said, Demidov has the swagger and confidence to pull others into the fight with him offensively. If he can continue to improve his defensive systems and details, he has the makeup of an elite player in this league.
