In the early days of the Toronto Blue Jays off-season, the vast majority of focus has been on the free-agent market, and rightfully so.
After all, the team landed a meeting with Juan Soto, who represents one of the best franchise-altering opportunities in the history of free agency. Even beyond the superstar outfielder, it’s relatively simple to parse what’s going on with free agents because it’s 100 per cent clear who is available, and teams don’t need to reckon with subtracting anything from their organizations — beyond millions of dollars — to bring them in.
The trade market is murkier, but a Toronto team looking for a swift turnaround in 2025 is unlikely to ignore it. Some players may shake loose with similar characteristics to desirable free agents who may prefer to sign elsewhere or earn offers higher than the Blue Jays feel is warranted.
As a hypothetical example, let’s say the Blue Jays loved the idea of adding Pete Alonso’s power to the lineup. If that pursuit fell through, they might explore making a deal for perennial trade target Brent Rooker to fill that power void and find that his 2025 Steamer projection is almost exactly the same.
|
Player |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
Alonso |
.242 |
.328 |
.475 |
|
Rooker |
.243 |
.326 |
.468 |
Alonso probably isn’t the Blue Jays’ top target, and the Athletics recently expressed a firm reluctance to move Rooker, but the idea here is that the needs that specific free agents fill can be met elsewhere.
The Blue Jays don’t have the blue-chip prospects to dominate the trade market, but they have a surplus of interesting young position players to help them make a few moves. Below are some possible trade targets that represent alternatives for notable free agents:
Jesús Luzardo
Age: 27
Throws: Left
2024 stats: 7.83 K/9, 2.97 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9 in 66.2 IP with a 5.00 ERA and 4.55 xERA
Team control through: 2026
A substitute for: Stylistically Yusei Kikuchi, projections-wise Sean Manaea
What makes him appealing: The Blue Jays are shopping in the starting pitching market, and Luzardo would give them an injection of youth and a different look from the left side.
His 2024 with the Miami Marlins was a mess as he dealt with both elbow and back injuries, but he wouldn’t be a realistic trade target if it hadn’t been. He still isn’t a player the Blue Jays can get for a bag of baseballs, but he’s also a remarkable talent worth targeting.
Between 2022 and 2023, his K/9 of 10.58 ranked sixth among pitchers who logged at least 250 innings — right between Dylan Cease and Gerrit Cole.
His velocity dropped 1.5 m.p.h. last season, but it’s tough to know how much injuries affected that. Even if he’s stuck with the 95.2-m.p.h. average he had in 2024, that remains outstanding heat for a southpaw.
Luzardo is both a durability and performance risk, but he’s got plenty of upside and costs very little — MLB Trade Rumors projects a $6-million payday in arbitration.
Steamer projects him to manage a 3.98 ERA in 2025 and 2.2 fWAR. Manaea has similar projections (4.12 ERA, 2.1 fWAR), and he’s expected to land a three-year deal in the $60-million range.
Erick Fedde
Age: 31
Throws: Right
2024 stats: 7.82 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9 in 177.2 IP with a 3.30 ERA and 3.88 xERA
Team control through: 2025
A substitute for: Luis Severino
What makes him appealing: The St. Louis Cardinals appear to be in the midst of a shakeup, and Fedde is one of the more interesting players who could be pried away.
After a few unimpressive years with the Washington Nationals, Fedde spent 2023 in the KBO and returned revitalized. His most significant change was adding a sweeper to become his top breaking ball and dropping a slow curve that had a run value of -12 in 2022.
Fedde is still a pitcher who leans on command over stuff, and he’ll have difficulty replicating his 2024 results. At the same time, he costs just $7.5 million and has been durable recently, with at least 27 starts made in each of the last four years.
Steamer projects him for a 4.25 ERA and 2.2 fWAR in 2025, which is awfully similar to Severino (4.22 ERA 2.0 fWAR), who the Blue Jays have shown some interest in.
Those projections might be underselling Fedde, considering his adjustments and the limited relevance of some of his previous MLB stats. Even if they don’t, he’d be a solid back-of-the-rotation option, allowing Yariel Rodríguez to upgrade the bullpen with his presence.
Tyler Anderson
Age: 34
Throws: Left
2024 stats: 7.13 K/9, 3.66 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9 in 179.1 IP with a 3.81 ERA and 4.37 xERA
Team control through: 2025
A substitute for: Jose Quintana/Basically any older innings-eater available on a one-year deal
What makes him appealing: Anderson is not particularly exciting, but he is reliable.
Since the beginning of the 2020 season, just 14 pitchers have topped his 725.2 innings pitched. The southpaw is well-compensated ($13 million), and the Los Angeles Angels don’t always seem to understand where they are in their competitive cycle, but the addition of Anderson would give Toronto one of the most reliable, durable rotations in the majors.
Anderson’s tenure with the Angels has been inconsistent, but he’s also a pitch-to-contact guy who’s been saddled with the majors’ 26th-ranked defence by DRS (-37.0), who might enjoy life more pitching in front of a Blue Jays defence that ranked second (+57.7) in that span.
While Toronto’s defensive structure could change during the off-season, there’s still reason to believe the club would provide a solid environment for someone like Anderson.
The veteran’s salary is a touch high for what he is, but he also wouldn’t cost much in the way of prospects, and that minor inefficiency might be palatable as part of a bigger push for contention in 2025. If not, the Blue Jays could attempt to get Los Angeles to eat some money.
Whatever the case may be, the southpaw would bring stability to the back of Toronto’s rotation while allowing Rodríguez to upgrade the relief corps.
David Bednar
Age: 30
Throws: Right
2024 stats: 9.05 K/9, 4.37 BB/9, 1.40 HR/9 in 57.2 IP with a 5.77 ERA and 4.28 xERA
Team control through: 2026
A substitute for: Paul Sewald/Proven but flawed mid-market relievers
What makes him appealing: Assuming the Blue Jays don’t shop at the very top end of the relief market, the next best thing might be getting an arm with high-leverage experience that just hit a speed bump.
Bednar is coming off a rough season with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but the gap between his ERA and xERA suggests he got rather unlucky — and his repertoire was the same as the one that delivered him a 39-save, 2.0 fWAR season in 2023. His fastball even ticked up from 96.6 m.p.h. to 97.2 m.p.h.
If Bednar can harness his stuff once again, there’s plenty of reason to believe he can be a strong late-game option once again. The Pirates have been reluctant to move off Bednar in the past, but he’s getting more expensive and closer to free agency while playoff contention remains a long shot for the club in 2025.
While the right-hander isn’t a sure thing to bounce back, he’s the type of gamble a Blue Jays club in desperate need of bullpen talent should explore. Steamer is projecting him for a 0.9 fWAR season with 67 innings of 3.83 ERA ball. That feels like a midpoint rather than a likely scenario, as he could easily sort himself out and do far better — or continue to spiral and perform significantly worse.
Bednar’s 2025 MLBTR arbitration estimate sits at $6.6 million, and despite the uncertainty around him, the Blue Jays are unlikely to find a reliever with his upside at a price like that in free agency.
Sewald is a possible comparable, considering he just put together an iffy season (4.31 ERA, 0.3 fWAR) after three years of strong late-inning work, and FanGraphs’ contract estimates put his AAV in the $6.5-8 million range.
Sewald is also older than Bednar (34), throws far less hard (91.4 m.p.h.), and doesn’t project as well (0.3 fWAR). Having the Pirates reliever is much more appealing at a similar price point, so long as the prospect cost isn’t outlandish.
