Four years ago, Max Scherzer took the mound for the Washington Nationals at Minute Maid Park in Game 7 of the World Series against the Houston Astros.
Now a member of the Texas Rangers, a nearly identical script is playing out in this year’s ALCS for the three-time Cy Young winner and his new squad.
Like the 2019 World Series, the road team has won each game of the series so far, leading into Monday’s winner-take-all match with a trip to the Fall Classic on the line.
For Scherzer, things are a little bit different this time around.
In 2019, he was coming off a regular season that saw him finish third in NL Cy Young voting, receive MVP votes and make his seventh straight All-Star appearance. He followed that up with perhaps the best post-season run of his career, posting a 2.40 ERA and 37 strikeouts over 30 innings while earning his first World Series championship.
But in 2023, the 39-year-old isn’t quite the same pitcher he used to be. After pitching to a 4.01 ERA with the disappointing New York Mets, Scherzer was dealt to Texas ahead of the trade deadline, where he looked better over the course of eight starts before heading to the injured list with a strained teres major muscle.
His first game back came in Game 3 of this ALCS against the Astros — who have owned the matchup against Scherzer this season — they handed him a loss with five runs over four innings of work. In his last regular season start against Houston on Sept. 6, Scherzer was chased in just three innings after giving up seven runs and three home runs.
So, while this is the exact situation that the Rangers acquired Scherzer to pitch in, Bruce Bochy can’t be as confident in running out the eight-time All-Star as Washington was with a title on the line. But as has been well established over his 16-year career, Scherzer is a gamer, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him rise to the moment once again on Monday night.
Scherzer’s performance may be the biggest X-factor in how Game 7 plays out, but the guy taking the mound for the Astros certainly has the ability — and the playoff track record — to steal the show.
Despite a career-worst regular season, Cristian Javier has turned things around in October, further cementing himself as one of the best post-season performers in the game today.
Of the 35 active players with at least 40 career playoff innings, Javier has the lowest ERA (2.08) and the third-highest strikeouts per nine (12.5) of any of them, and he’s only built on that success in these playoffs.
Armed with his invisible fastball, the 26-year-old has earned wins over the Rangers and Minnesota Twins while allowing just four hits and two runs over 10.2 innings.
As is the case in nearly any Game 7, you can expect all hands on deck for the Rangers if Scherzer does falter early on. The Astros, however, might not have all their top arms available depending on the outcome of Bryan Abreu’s hearing Monday morning.
Abreu has arguably been Houston’s best reliever this season and has pitched in eight of the team’s 10 playoff games this year. While Javier has undoubtedly been untouchable, he’s never lasted more than six innings in a playoff game, meaning the bullpen is almost guaranteed to see some action tonight.
The trio of Abreu, Hector Neris and Ryan Pressly formed one of the more formidable groups at the end of games this season. Without Abreu and considering some of Neris’ struggles so far this post-season — six earned runs in seven innings — the Rangers may be able to find success against some of Houston’s lower-leverage relievers once Javier leaves the game.
This might be a situation where Dusty Baker turns to his own three-time Cy Young winner, Justin Verlander, in hopes of covering an inning or two between Javier and Pressly. Verlander threw 82 pitches in Game 5 but has only come into a playoff game as a reliever once in his career, all the way back in the 2017 ALDS.
Of course, Texas’ bullpen has its own issues. By running away with Game 6 in the ninth inning, the Rangers avoided having to turn to Jose Leclerc for a five-out save or a shaky Aroldis Chapman only up two against the top of the Astros’ order.
Texas is in a similar situation to its cross-state rival in Game 7, just by the fact that it will likely have to turn to its bullpen earlier than it would like. Even if Scherzer is dealing, he is only in his second start back and hasn’t crossed the 80-pitch threshold since Sept. 1.
Leclerc has been nails this post-season, outside of his blown save in Game 5, and Josh Sborz hasn’t allowed a run in seven appearances. But outside of that duo, the Rangers don’t have a lot of names running out of the bullpen that inspire all that much confidence.
|
Rangers Relievers in ALCS
|
Appearances |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
FIP |
|
Jose Leclerc |
4 |
4.1 |
6.23 |
8.31 |
6.23 |
7.64 |
|
Josh Sborz |
4 |
4.1 |
8.31 |
6.23 |
0.00 |
3.49 |
|
Martin Perez |
2 |
3.1 |
2.70 |
2.70 |
2.70 |
3.56 |
|
Chris Stratton |
2 |
2.2 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
4.01 |
|
Dane Dunning |
1 |
2.2 |
13.50 |
10.13 |
10.13 |
3.63 |
|
Aroldis Chapman |
3 |
2.1 |
3.86 |
0.00 |
3.86 |
7.97 |
|
Cody Bradford |
2 |
2.0 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
4.50 |
9.76 |
|
Will Smith |
2 |
1.2 |
5.40 |
10.80 |
10.80 |
15.26 |
|
Andrew Heaney |
1 |
1.0 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
3.26 |
|
Jon Gray |
1 |
1.0 |
9.00 |
9.00 |
9.00 |
4.26 |
Might we see Jordan Montgomery again? The big lefty has pitched like a top-of-the-rotation arm for Texas and, like Verlander, threw 82 pitches in Game 5.
No matter how it plays out, Game 7 will be a chess match, and with veteran managers Bochy and Dusty Baker on either side, anything is on the table with a chance to move on to the World Series.
You can watch the game on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ starting at 8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT.
