TORONTO — If the last few days have shown anything, it’s that trying to predict what’s going to happen around the NBA trade deadline is a largely futile exercise.
The overwhelming reaction among NBA staffers — people whose livelihood in part depends on their ability to anticipate developments before they happen — to the Luka Doncic trade was shock. Just as millions of NBA fans wondered if the initial news of the Dallas Mavericks trading Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis was the result of some kind of deepfake, those in NBA front offices were initially wondering the same thing.
And while there was plenty of expectation around the possibility of Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox making his way to the San Antonio Spurs to pair with Victor Wembanyama, the timing of that deal Sunday night — along with the Chicago Bulls getting involved to route two-time all-star Zach Lavine who has been sitting on the trading block for more than 12 months to the Kings — was a surprise.
All of which is to say that getting a grasp on exactly where a single team stands with three days left before the 3 p.m. ET deadline on Thursday is a bit of a fool’s errand.
So let’s start with the easy stuff.
That two giant deals happened with nearly four days to go before the deadline suggests that more will likely be coming.
And that they happened at all is maybe an indication that what was thought to be the biggest potential trade out there — the Miami Heat extricating themselves from Jimmy Butler — isn’t holding up the market the way everyone anticipated.
It could be that since possible options for Butler being moved by the Heat are so limited, the league has just moved on.
Since Butler has a player option next season, simply trading for him without consideration for his future puts pressure on the receiving team: They either sign him to the extension he wants — believed to be two more years and an additional $80 to $100 million on top of the $52 million he’s already owed for this next year if he picks up his option — or he brings your team down around him.
Butler’s first choice remains Phoenix, but the Suns can’t really make the deal without including Bradley Beal who has two more years and $110 million coming to him on his current deal, as well as a no-trade clause that gives him veto power on any potential trade destination. And even if the Suns can identify a team that Beal might be amenable to be traded to, the Suns simply don’t have enough draft assets or young players to make it worth most teams taking on that much salary for an underperforming player.
Still, what most thought was going to be a fairly sluggish trade market has begun to move.
“For sure there are more deals coming,” said one front-office source.
As soon as the Doncic trade went down, the Raptors took note of the simple fact that the Lakers — who were already thin at centre — are now desperate for a quality big man.
The Raptors have one in Jakob Poeltl, the 29-year-old Austrian who is having one of his best seasons. The Lakers have inquired about him, but the sense is the Raptors are holding out for an offer that would include a first-round pick (likely with a certain level of protection) and the only one the Lakers have left to offer is a 2031 first they’ve been clutching tightly for years.
“The Lakers know it would be pretty hard — not impossible — to get him,” said one source of Poeltl as a trade possibility.
That’s because the Raptors — who traded what turned out to be the eighth overall pick in the 2024 draft to the Spurs to get Poeltl and saw that pick get flipped to Minnesota for an unprotected 2031 first-round pick and a top-10 protected 2030 pick swap — see Poeltl as an essential piece to help them transition from their current rebuild.
Not that he’s untouchable, but the Raptors aren’t in fire sale mode when it comes to their key players.
One name that continues to come up in conversations about the Raptors is New Orleans Pelicans wing Brandon Ingram.
The intensity of the discussions is hard to gauge. The Raptors have the cap flexibility, contracts and draft capital to inject themselves into any trade conversation, up or down the scale. There’s a sense that if the opportunity was right, they would like to add a ‘significant piece’ to pair with Scottie Barnes and shift the program from ‘rebuilding’ to ‘competing’ sooner rather than later.
No one I’ve spoken with denies that Ingram has been on Toronto’s radar or that they’ve reached any kind of conclusion, one way or the other. And for all the talk about the Raptors’ interest in Ingram, there’s been precious little about what the Pelicans would want from Toronto. However, if the Raptors were to sign the pending free agent (Ingram) to a deal — that would likely begin in the $40 million range this coming summer — they would have to offload some future salary. A deal of RJ Barrett and Davion Mitchell for Ingram is a snug fit, financially. Barrett is having a career season and has two years and $57 million left on his contract, which is less than what Ingram is making now. Meanwhile, Mitchell is a pending free agent. For a Pelicans team that always has to be mindful of the bottom line, that probably helps.
Is Ingram a good fit in Toronto? That’s tough to gauge too. On one hand, Ingram is a former All-Star who is still just 27 years old even though he’s in his ninth season. He’s averaged 23 points, five rebounds and five assists in his six seasons with the Pelicans, and shot 37.2 per cent from three, even if his detractors suggest he spends too much time in the mid-range. And it’s not like free agents of his quality are beating a path to Toronto. Talent is talent and you get it where you can.
But for all the talent the former No. 2 pick has flowing through his willowy six-foot-eight frame, there are not many across the NBA who would argue he’s squeezed every ounce out of it. And then there’s his availability: He’s played just 57 games on average in the past seven seasons and has played more than 64 only once in his career when he suited up 79 times as a rookie with the Lakers. He’s played just 18 games for the Pelicans this season.
The simplest solution for the Raptors might be to hang on to Barrett, hope his development curve continues to trend positively and that there’s a contract in the future that makes sense for both sides.
Elsewhere, the Raptors have been monitoring the Butler situation. But even in the distant possibility that the mercurial wing ends up in Golden State and there’s an opportunity to facilitate that trade to acquire Canadian veteran Andrew Wiggins, the reality is that at 30 years old, Wiggins’ timeline might not match up with one the Raptors are on. Similarly, Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic — who the Raptors pursued multiple times in years past and is considered to be available — probably doesn’t fit Toronto’s window now that he’s 32.
Raptors wing Bruce Brown is healthy and playing well and would be a good fit on most teams trying to make a playoff run, but his $23 million contract isn’t easy to move, even given it’s an expiring deal. Same with veteran Kelly Olynyk, whose availability is complicated by him having another season remaining on the two-year, $26.3 million contract extension he signed last season.
From the Raptors’ point of view, there has been steady interest in 32-year-old Chris Boucher, a pending free agent who seems to be aging in reverse. He’s having arguably the best season of his eight-year career and has been on fire in the new year, averaging 11.3 points and 4.4 rebounds in 17 minutes a game while shooting 63.2 per cent from the floor and 52.8 per cent from three on 4.1 attempts per game. He’s earning $10.8 million and will be a free agent this summer, which makes it a cap-friendly contract to move. At least four different teams have reached out regarding Boucher, the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers being two of them, per sources.
It’s not likely that Boucher is going to generate more than a second-round pick, so the Raptors are also open to the possibility of signing Boucher to a short-term deal in the summer.
“To be honest with you, in past years I’ve thought about it way more than this year,” Boucher said. “This year, it’s like, I know what I can do, they know what I can do. We have this conversation every year and nothing happens, so it’s at the point where until you hear from them (management) or my agent, it’s just empty conversation. I’m just focused on playing.”
Like the rest of us, Boucher, the longest-serving Raptor and the only holdover from the 2018-19 championship season, can only be in wait-and-see mode for now.
