What’s the plan?
That’s the question that hasn’t got much attention amidst the justifiable excitement of the Toronto Raptors being back home and the city itself steadily — if cautiously — returning to some version of post-pandemic normal.
We know where the Raptors have been, but now that they’re back, where are they going? Two seasons and a pandemic removed from their 2019 championship, it’s not quite clear.
Now, there are plenty of things to unabashedly be giddy about as they get set to tip-off their 27th season.
Foremost among them: On Wednesday night they will play their first real game at Scotiabank Arena since Feb. 28, 2019, an otherwise forgettable loss to the Charlotte Hornets.
It will mark the Toronto debut of Scottie Barnes, the fourth overall pick who represents the compensation for the Raptors’ lost season in Tampa, the most anticipated Raptors rookie in a generation.
The early returns bode well: Barnes’ 5.6 assists per game led the Raptors and was tops among all rookies in the pre-season. He was among the rookie leaders in scoring (9.8), blocks (1.2) and steals (1.2), portending years of stat-stuffing to come for the six-foot-seven 20-year-old.
True to form, the bubbly Barnes was like a kid at Christmas on the eve of his first chance to put his multi-positional versatility to the test in games that count.
“I can’t wait to play in front of that packed house, in front of the crowd, (and) bring a lot of energy,” he said. “It’s going to be very exciting.”
It will be. The connection the Raptors have with the city they play in is a real thing. That only four players of the 17 on the team have heard Scotiabank Arena in a full-throated ‘Let’s Go Raptors’ chant or have seen the ‘We the North’ invasion firsthand in Detroit or Cleveland is one of the most mind-bending elements of the past 20 months — real-life tragedies and political circuses aside.
But part of what’s exciting — or maybe concerning — about the season to come is that no one really has the foggiest clue about what’s coming next.
When the Raptors last played in Toronto they were approaching the end (though no one could know it then) of a seven-year playoff streak during which the objectives were very clear: win a title.
But after the COVID-inspired Tampa tumble into the draft lottery and the departure of Kyle Lowry in free agency this past summer, the Raptors are at a point that is more reminiscent of where the team was in 2013-14, when Raptors president Masai Ujiri was in his first year on the job, and (now) general manager Bobby Webster actually was in his mid-20s, instead of just looking the part.
In retrospect, all that happens next seems ordained. At the time? It was a series of lucky accidents.
There were those in the organization prepared to throw it all overboard in pursuit of a rush to the bottom and the chance to — who knows? — pick local phenom Andrew Wiggins at the top of a draft that was thought to be stacked with talent and has proven since to be anything but.
Remember, the Raptors started 6-12 and traded Rudy Gay. Lowry had his bags packed, a trade to the New York Knicks agreed upon save for a last-minute flinch from Knicks owner James Dolan.
But the Raptors somehow started winning and Ujiri figured he might as well wait and see if there was more ketchup in the bottle. There was luck involved. As the years ticked along and the 50-win seasons piled up, the Raptors turned into a veritable condiment factory. Winning begat winning. Until the wobble in Tampa, the Raptors came to believe in their ability to — with just the right amount of flavour assistance — turn any ordinary meal into something good enough to serve company.
“I think the trust comes from results,” said Fred VanVleet, the six-year veteran who has emerged as the spoken and unspoken leader filling the on-court and off-court void left by Lowry. “From the moment I got here I had guys in front of me that I’ve followed and I wanted to follow in their footsteps and then it just builds like that, that’s how you build your culture is just by winning a bunch of games, 50 wins a year, whatever it is, and then you win a championship. Now, everything you ever did in your life is validated because it led you up to that point.
“I think, for now, the guys that are here, they saw that we won a championship, they also saw myself, Pascal (Siakam), OG (Anunoby) go from not-so-big of names to very well paid, very well respected around the league and I think that’s intriguing for a lot of players.
“And then you get here and it’s hard not to just keep up. You gotta be a good person, be solid every day, stand on what you stand on, and work. (There’s) really no wiggle room, you have to be up to that standard…”
But what it will add up to isn’t clear and it’s not like Ujiri and Webster are infallible. After the title run they thought they had a good chance to keep Kawhi Leonard and they didn’t, losing Danny Green as collateral damage. They lost Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol for no return a season later and while neither went on to productive years, the lack of a passable replacement was the first leak that sunk Toronto’s 2020-21 season. There was hope — even confidence — that the Raptors had positioned themselves to sign Giannis Antetokounmpo in free agency, but he never became available. As a replacement for Norman Powell — their only significant move at the trade deadline last year — the Raptors got Gary Trent Jr. It’s not a bad return but signing the 22-year-old to a three-year deal $54 million contract this summer with a player option in 2023-24 raised eyebrows as it seemed Trent Jr. got both top dollar and maximum flexibility.
All of which is to say, for everything the Raptors brain trust accomplished on their way to delivering a championship, there have been some hiccups since.
For years the Raptors aspired to follow the footprints left by the San Antonio Spurs, who made the playoffs for a record 22 consecutive seasons and 29 in 30, picking up five titles en route. They had two lottery picks over all those years — Hall of Famers David Robinson and Tim Duncan — and made the most of their luck.
But now the Spurs are likely headed for their third straight season out of the playoffs but have yet to draft better than 12th because they’ve never been terrible enough. Without their next Robinson or Duncan, their path back to the NBA’s elite is dimly lit.
As the Raptors enter what is an obvious post-contender transition could the comparison still hold?
Just as the Spurs’ winning habits have kept them in the NBA’s mushy middle and a little less relevant by the year, there is the possibility that the Raptors could be undermined by their own competence.
Chances are the Raptors will likely find a way to be pretty good, a solid bet to finish somewhere in the play-in tournament or the 7-10 range in a deep Eastern Conference. They enter this season with a clear style of play (a swarming, long-armed switchiness on defence designed to deliver game-defining runs of high-efficiency transition offence) and a slew of intriguing young pieces that — in Raptors tradition — could turn into more than the sum of their parts.
“It’s a long NBA season and there’s a lot of room for growth on the roster,” said VanVleet. “If any handful of guys take a quick step, we’re looking at a completely different roster than what the general public would see.”
Could the Raptors’ depth turn into the Bench Mob 2.0 — hey, let’s call it the Bench Swarm — and help lift this group well past the oddsmakers projection of 36.5 wins?
It doesn’t seem far-fetched.
“That would be great. That would be fantastic if we could have that kind of bench unit,” said VanVleet. “I’d love for this group to be that… (But) they have to go out there and do it.”
The Raptors core has their share of questions to answer, too. VanVleet has never been alone as the lead ball-handler with opposing defences making a point of making his life miserable. For all his attributes, he’s still a six-foot point guard who struggles to finish at the rim. This is a pivotal season for Siakam to prove full value for his max contract. He won’t be back until late November and will need to put shoulder surgery and a year of uneven play over parts of two seasons behind him.
It will likely be the biggest lesson to be learned this season: how far can a core of VanVleet, Siakam and Anunoby take a team and does Barnes raise their ceiling?
The Raptors have options and flexibility and the benefit of lukewarm expectations. But as the ball once again goes up in Toronto will a plan finally begin to reveal itself?
