The incredibly tight standings halfway through the NHL season has left several teams in a difficult situation trying to figure out what their strategy will be when approaching the trade market. Whether it’s parity or mediocrity, the close balance has weaved a daunting web of challenges the NHL hasn’t seen since the salary cap was first introduced in 2005.
Usually teams have separated by now and it’s become clear who at least some of the sellers will be. Instead, as this season has progressed, it’s become increasingly more difficult for GMs and their front offices to determine if they should buy or sell ahead of the March 6 deadline.
As I work away on my trade board next week, this conundrum has formed a complex landscape.
First and foremost is how challenging it still is to manage the salary cap around the league. We know the Colorado Avalanche — with just four regulation losses in 42 games — are going to buy and will be trying to acquire depth at centre. But they have cap space issues and today are projected to have $3.122 million in deadline day space.
Gone are the days when a small handful of teams would dominate the standings and be able to pluck off needed pieces from those buried at the bottom. There is a wider dispersion of talent in the NHL today, and many teams find themselves in the mushy middle, jostling for a few playoff spots. Those teams that previously may have been sellers are now within striking distance of a playoff berth and face a dilemma of whether to bolster their roster to take a run, or wait to fight another day and potentially sell off a player or two.
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And while the sellers have yet to be defined, a lot of potential buyers are in a dangerous position, too. Because there are so many teams that could still end up in or out of the playoffs, a team doesn’t want to trade for someone like, say, Nazem Kadri, and then miss out on the playoffs anyway. There isn’t much of a trade market yet and it’s hard to create one when teams are scared of making a costly trade and finishing short anyway. This is why there’s such a glut right now.
Six teams on the outside of the wild card in the Western Conference are within five points of making it. Every non-playoff team in the East is within six points of a wild-card spot.
So even though we’re halfway through this season, it’s maybe still a tad early for many of these teams to make decisions that will impact not only their current season, but could set the foundation for many years to come.
One good stretch could wildly change your outlook. Just ask the Buffalo Sabres.
Navigating this landscape requires careful consideration, insight and sometimes a bit of luck. Every move has significant implications, which makes it all the more crucial for teams to read the signs carefully throughout the chaos.
Eventually, the floodgates should open and we will continue to share with you what we’re hearing around the NHL.
With that, here is some of the latest trade information and buzz around the league…
From first place a year ago to last place this season, Kevin Cheveldayoff and the Winnipeg Jets are spinning their wheels and it doesn’t appear there’s much they can do about their slide outside of firing their head coach. It’s a big question if you could convince an experienced coach like Peter Laviolette or Pete DeBoer to go there, and there may not be the next young up-and-coming coach (like a Spencer Carbery) available right now, but it’s hard to imagine they’re not contemplating a change behind the bench first.
On the transaction front, I don’t see the Jets doing much of anything and Cheveldayoff isn’t one to make hasty decisions. But this is an older, slower team that has to be thinking about moving on from some of its more senior players. In theory, one guy that could make sense to move on from is captain Adam Lowry, but they just re-signed him and he has a no-movement clause. These types of players who would bring impactful returns, like Lowry or Neal Pionk or Josh Morrissey (for a major shakeup) are just not going to be on the table. Expect minor moves, such as dealing pending UFA Luke Schenn by the deadline, but not major ones.
If Winnipeg fans are left with anything this season, it’s to hope for a Sabres-type of winning streak that lifts them back into the race.
Kyle Dubas is caught in a difficult spot with the Penguins in a wild-card position and with new ownership in place. First thing’s first: Sidney Crosby is not going anywhere, and Erik Karlsson’s contract ($10 million AAV) in all probability will handcuff the GM.
There are teams that would dearly love to land Evgeni Malkin, though he’s in full control of the situation with a no-movement clause in the final season of his contract. There’s talk of Minnesota GM Bill Guerin laying low in the weeds looking to make another significant trade, and wondering if Russian Kirill Kaprizov can help convince Malkin to join the Wild for a playoff run. If Malkin allows it, expect him to move before the trade deadline.
After that, it’ll be very hard for Dubas to move Bryan Rust or Rickard Rakell (who has partial trade protection) because the team is still in the race — every time they look ready to launch into a rebuild, the team pulls its way back in. Both Rakell and Rust have two years left on their contracts and if you remove them from the roster, Crosby won’t be too pleased. Is new ownership’s first impression going to be dismantling Crosby’s nucleus? Unlikely.
As we know, the Leafs are really limited with the assets they have to pull off a big trade. Last year, Easton Cowan was pushed as a trade chip in an effort to try and obtain Brayden Schenn, but Cowan’s going to be hard to put into play again this season. However, depending on what the return is, we can’t rule out the possibility.
One idea floating around the league is a bigger swing involving Dallas — specifically Jason Robertson. Contract talks there haven’t been smooth, where Robertson is believed to be looking for north of $12 million a year, more than what Mikko Rantanen got. That’s not an easy number for the Stars. Toronto could pay it, but the question is the cost of acquisition. Cowan, Ben Danford, plus more — likely an off-season conversation rather than a deadline one — but it’s the kind of move that would actually change the Leafs’ makeup. Whether they have the stomach for it is another matter.
Finally on the Leafs, there are teams out there that need a goalie and not a lot is available at the position. So, if Anthony Stolarz can come back and be healthy for a stretch, he’s a trade chip they could use.
NY Rangers
They’re just three points out of a playoff spot, but losing Igor Shesterkin to the IR is a scary development since he’s the only reason why you might think the Rangers can win on any given night.
If the Rangers slide out much more and end up selling, Artemi Panarin is the player to watch. He has a no-movement clause and could quietly stay until it expires, but it would be in his interest to take a page out of Brad Marchand’s book and waive it to join a Stanley Cup contender. By lifting his no-trade clause from Boston last season, and going on to win the Cup with Florida, Marchand put over $20 million in his pocket by raising his value. Panarin has to do the same thing if he sees himself as a $9-10 million player. He will not get that from the Rangers.
Meantime, Vincent Trocheck is another player on the back-nine of his career who would be an impactful addition to a playoff roster. At 32, he could still bring valued assets back to the Rangers in a trade. He’s not “cheap” with a $5.625 million cap hit, but probably still has another two or three good years left in him. The Rangers would be wise to turn over some of the older players on their roster and Trocheck should be a trade option now, before his value begins to decline in the coming seasons.
Three weeks ago GM Barry Trotz had everybody available with the exception of Roman Josi and I don’t think anyone has been pulled back even as the Predators have moved to within three points of a playoff spot. Management realizes they can’t win with this group.
Jonathan Marchessault is the player to watch here and probably more of a target for other teams than Steven Stamkos, whose $8 million AAV will hurt his chances of being moved. It’s just too much for a team to take on and I’m not sure anyone would entertain the idea of acquiring Stamkos unless his cap hit was reduced to $4-5 million. Even Marchessault might not be the easiest to move given he has three years left on his contract and has full no-movement protection, but his $5.5 million cap hit is at least manageable.
And finally, for as much speculation as there’s been about him, I’m not hearing Juuse Saros’ name out there at all, but it’s not impossible he could still end up in a bombshell move.
The player being sought out the most from Calgary is Blake Coleman, who has only partial trade protection and makes $4.9 million against the cap this year and next. He’s a versatile player who can be used in any role and he’s a two-time Cup winner leading Calgary in goals. If it improves the package enough, the Flames might even entertain the idea of retaining some of that salary.
Kadri is tougher. Teams are wary of his age and the remaining term on his deal. The offers haven’t been inspiring, and that decision may drag right up until the trade deadline.
I still think Vegas is circling on Rasmus Andersson and could be interested in moving on that before the Olympics.
Buffalo Sabres
We previously had Buffalo pegged to be a seller and pending UFA Alex Tuch to be on the way out, but their recent run and incredible climb back up the standings has changed the equation. Now new GM Jarmo Kekalainen is aggressively shopping around as a buyer.
The Sabres have some good young prospects, depth in the system, and could be a sleeper team to not only buy on the trade market, but also meet Tuch’s salary demands of around $10 million. Could they actually move draft and prospect capital to bolster their lineup? The next few weeks will have a lot of influence on Kekalainen’s direction and how hard he goes after a scoring winger.
We waited on the Blues to make a splash last season, but they turned it around and got back into the playoffs so the sell-off never happened. This time, Doug Armstrong’s last trade deadline as a GM, could be different.
Jordan Kyrou has a no-trade clause, but there’s a sense he may be softening on waiving it to go to a contending club. He wants to have a chance to win and it’s about time to wonder if a fresh start may be best for all sides. Whether it’s Kyrou or Schenn or any other Blue, Armstrong is ready to move off some of his core players in the right deals.
