It’s semifinal day at the WJC in Halifax and the city is buzzing. If someone is looking for a pair of last-minute tickets to the sold out game, it will cost them upwards of $2,500 for two seats in the lower bowl on the resale market.
And it should be a good one. Team USA is unlike any opponent Team Canada has faced so far. They are smaller than other teams (11 players under 6-feet) and play a very fast, highly skilled, puck possession game.
Discipline from both teams will be key in this semifinal rivalry game.
Here are my pre-game notes:
• Team Canada comes into the game with the top ranked power play in the tournament at 50 per cent. Team USA counters with the third-ranked unit at 37.5 per cent.
• USA has had more success on their penalty kill, though. They rank fourth on the PK at 85 per cent and Canada ranks sixth at 76 per cent.
• Connor Bedard leads Canada, and the tournament, in scoring with an incredible 21 points in five games.
• Logan Cooley (third overall to Arizona in 2022) leads Team USA in scoring and is the second-leading scorer in the tournament with five goals and 11 points.
• Canada will have to be aware of Jimmy Snuggerud (21st overall to St.Louis in 2022). He’s lethal when he has the puck on his stick in high danger areas and has a shoot-first approach. Snuggerud is the third-leading scorer in the tournament with five goals and five assists. Two of his goals have come on the power-play and he’s also scored two game-winning goals. This kid is a difference maker.
• Cutter Gauthier (fifth overall to Philadelphia in 2022) is one of Team USA’s big body forwards (6-foot-2, 200 pounds), and he plays with a combination of power and pace. Gauthier will give Team Canada defenders all they can handle along the wall and out front of their net, but he has also proven he can also score from range, which makes him a difficult player to contain.
• Team USA, on the other hand, will have to find a way to shut down Canada’s Dylan Guenther. All five of Guenther’s goals have come on the power play in this tournament.
• Team Canada’s Olen Zellweger played more than 30 minutes in the quarterfinal game against Slovakia. He will play north of 25 minutes again tonight and is one of the defenders who has the pace and agility to keep up with the darting American forwards.
• The rest of the Team Canada defencemen need to elevate their games. They did not move pucks efficiently versus Slovakia. Identifying options and making quick, accurate, decisions will be crucial versus Team USA.
GOALTENDING BATTLE
More often than not, winning at the WJC comes down goaltending. Thomas Milic gets the start for Team Canada. Team USA counters with Trey Augustine.
Milic is an undrafted 19-year-old who plays for Seattle in the WHL and he’s coming off his best game of the tournament. He wasn’t overly busy against Slovakia, but he made some timely saves in the third period and overtime. His game has evolved as the tournament has aged. Heading into tonight’s game Milic sports a 1.68 GAA and .920 save percentage.
Augustine is a first-year draft eligible goalie who plays out of the USNTDP. He’s not exceptionally big in his net (6-foot-1, 183 pounds) but he sits tall in his butterfly and makes himself as big as possible tracking and squaring up to shooters. Heading into this tournament Augustine was projected as a second-round pick and rated a “B” prospect by NHL Central Scouting, but his stock is on the rise. Augustine sports a 1.36 GAA and .940 save percentage at the WJC, ranking him second behind Sweden’s Carl Lindbom.
BATTLE IN THE TRENCHES
Both head coaches – Dennis Williams (Canada) and Rand Pecknold (USA) – will be counting on their secondary layer players to win the battle in the trenches and hopefully wear down their opponent.
Third and fourth line skaters generally don’t get the same amount of recognition as top six forwards and top pairing defencemen, but there is a chance this game will be won or lost based on contributions from middle/depth skaters from either team.
It’s my opinion that the following players could determine the outcome:
Canada: Nathan Gaucher, Zack Ostaphuk, Caedan Bankier, Zach Dean, Nolan Allan, Tyson Hinds, Ethan del Mastro.
USA: Rutger McGroarty, Red Savage, Tyler Boucher, Sean Behrens, and Ryan Ufko.
The top lines for both teams are closely matched. The names mentioned above have combinations of “skill and will” and sometimes these games come down to an extra sliver of “will”.
KEYS TO VICTORY
I’m not going to overthink this because both teams are highly skilled. The team that does the following better than the other is who I think will win and advance to the gold medal final:
1. Win special teams
2. Limit neutral zone turnovers
3. Discipline/manage emotions
4. Extend plays and out-battle the opponent along the boards and out front of the net.
5. Timely saves
