Scout’s Analysis: How Canada looks ahead of pivotal New Year’s Eve game

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Scout’s Analysis: How Canada looks ahead of pivotal New Year’s Eve game

MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. — Through four days at the World Junior Hockey Championship Canada, USA and Sweden are the only unbeaten teams remaining. Tuesday brings a lighter day on the schedule, but on New Year’s Eve, Canada will face off against Finland, and Sweden and the Americans will go head-to-head. The winners from those games will finish as the top seed in their group.

The Finns have even more at stake in their match-up versus Canada. If they lose to Canada and Czechia defeats Latvia in their final round-robin game, Finland will fall to third in the pool and match up against the top seed from Group A in the quarterfinal. 

With the top spot in Group A and B still up for grabs, here are some of my latest scouting notes from frigid Minneapolis-St. Paul:

Notes on Team Canada

• Canada’s top line of Michael Hage (Montreal Canadiens), Brady Martin (Nashville Predators) and Gavin McKenna (draft eligible) have easily established themselves as Canada’s go-to and the most consistent scoring threat.

• McKenna leads the tournament with 3G-4A through the first three games while Hage (2G-4A) is tied for second and Martin (1G-4A) is third among Canadian scorers. 

• Team Canada leads the tournament with a 50 per cent success rate on the power play.

• The Canadians have scored five times with the man advantage but, interestingly, Hage and McKenna have only tallied one tuck each while Martin has not scored on the power play.

• Canada has not allowed a goal against on the penalty-kill through the first three games. They are a perfect 5-for-5 on the PK. 

• Undrafted defenceman Ethan MacKenzie from the Edmonton Oil Kings leads the team with a plus-5 rating.

• MacKenzie has passed through his first two years of NHL draft eligibility without being selected, but the chances of him slipping through again in 2026 fall somewhere between slim and none. He’s not the biggest, heaviest, or most elite defenceman in this tournament but he plays fast and empties the tank in all three zones consistently. He’s the definition of a two-way defensive prospect who can be deployed in a variety of roles. 

• Every game from here on out will be exponentially more difficult for Team Canada and if they’re going to achieve their goal of a gold medal, they’ll need to get more out of their depth players. Middle-six forwards Jett Luchanko (Philadelphia Flyers), Cole Beaudoin (Utah Mammoth), and Cole Reschny (Calgary Flames) are a combined minus-6 so far and have only contributed four points between them. 

• Luchanko, especially, has been scuffling to find offence. I can’t say I’ve had any issues with his overall compete (he’s had some tough puck luck), but not registering a point in the tournament so far is an outlier for me. 

• Braeden Cootes leads the team with a winning percentage of 78 in the face-off circle (11-3). He’s followed by Luchanko at 69 per cent and Reschny at 65 per cent.

• I’m curious to see who starts in goal for Canada versus Finland. Carter George was Canada’s best player last year in Ottawa, but does his 3.00 GAA and .867 save percentage in his two starts lead to a discussion for the coaching staff? 

• Goalie Jack Ivankovic won his start versus Latvia and, while not overly busy, held down the fort and allowed Canada to escape with a hard fought 2-1 win in overtime. He’s had a fantastic year at the University of Michigan, posting a 16-4 record with the Wolverines. His goals-against average is an impressive 1.90 and his save percentage is .927 at the NCAA level. 

• Keaton Verhoeff was finally listed for Team Canada and got a chance to display his high-end skill and overall dependability versus Denmark. He was deployed 16 times, averaged 56 seconds per shift, was active offensively extending plays pinching down the wall, and ended up with an assist and a plus-2 rating over his 14:58 of ice time. 

Previewing Canada’s matchup against Finland

• The Finns are never an easy out on the international stage and this year’s group, while not elite outside of their goaltending, are a consistent and competitive team. 

Consider the following stats compared to the rest of the teams at the WJC:


• Finland’s best player again this year has been goaltender Petteri Rimpinen (LA Kings), who was named the top goalie at last year’s WJC. Rimpinen is the only goalie in the tournament who has played every game for his country so far, and he’s posted a 1.32 GAA and .907 save percentage. 

• High leverage games can be won or lost via pure determination and relentless compete. The Finns have a very intriguing draft eligible prospect in 6-foot-3, 205-pound forward Oliver Suvanto. He’s only produced one goal in Finland’s first three games, but he is the kind of power forward who wears down opponents and extends plays along the wall and out front of the net. Suvanto has my full attention, especially considering he is one of the youngest prospects in this year’s draft. Suvanto has a Sept. 3 birthdate, meaning he was only 12 days shy of being eligible for next year’s draft instead. 

Overall WJC notes

• Team USA defenceman and Washington Capitals top prospect Cole Hutson suffered a scary injury in the Americans’ second game versus Switzerland when he absorbed a long-range slap shot to the back of his neck. After being transported to hospital it was determined Hutson apparently suffered a “stinger” that affected some nerves at the time. After undergoing tests, he was released the same night. He didn’t dress for USA’s game versus Slovakia on Monday (a 6-5 victory for the Americans) but could apparently return before the end of the tournament. 

• How important is Hutson to Team USA? He averages over 24 minutes per game of ice time and has contributed two assists in less than two games played. 

• Chase Reid (draft eligible) leads all American defencemen with 1G-2A. The 6-foot-2, 188-pound two-way/transitional, right-shot defenceman is easily trending towards being a top-five pick in this year’s NHL Draft. 

• The other six rostered defencemen for Team USA have yet to register a single point in the tournament. 

• If the Americans are to challenge for their third-straight gold medal they will have to improve on these statistics:


• Despite a couple of lopsided results in the preliminary round, hockey is healthy at a global level. Even the best teams here in Minneapolis can’t afford to take any opponent lightly. Case in point was Canada requiring overtime to dispatch Latvia (2-1), Sweden barely getting past Slovakia (3-2) and Switzerland (4-2), and USA nearly coughing up a regulation win to Slovakia (6-5).

• Czechia defenceman Tomas Galvas is another player who has gone unselected through an NHL draft. I completely understand teams having some reservations about his ability to defend at the NHL level, he’s only listed at 5-foot-10 and 168 pounds, but it’s undeniable how much his team relies on his ability to make plays in the offensive zone. He’s been especially dynamic on the power play this week and contributed 2G-4A in his first three games. His defending has been better than average in my opinion, which makes me believe he might find a way to the NHL as he continues to mature. 

• I recognize some of our readers might roll their eyes when a scout references the importance of winning faceoffs, but the reality is coaches at elite levels of hockey run set-plays that rely on winning puck possession out of draws. I referenced some of Team Canada’s leaders in the face-off dot above, but the following players have really stood out in the category:

Slovakia captain Tobias Pitka (undrafted) has a 70 per cent success rate in the face-off circle (40-17). Team Czechia captain Petr Sikora (Washington Capitals) has won 62 per cent (39-24). Sweden’s Jack Berglund (Philadelphia Flyers) has also won 62 per cent of his draws (29-18).

• Chicago Blackhawks prospect Anton Frondell from Sweden (third overall in 2025) continues to rip pucks from the weak side flank on the power play and from high-danger spots on the ice overall. He’s one of the most elite pure shooters outside of the NHL. He’s posted 3G-2A so far this week and will someday be on the receiving end of passes from Connor Bedard and company in the Windy City. Frondell will elevate the overall skill of the Blackhawks’ forward group and he doesn’t cut corners defensively. 

• I will have another notebook later this week, but I wanted to leave everyone with a brief update on two other high-end draft eligible prospects competing in this tournament, Ivar Stenberg and Viggo Bjorck both from Team Sweden. 

Bjorck is a 5-foot-10, 177-pound, right-shot forward who has contributed three goals so far in the tournament. He sets up on his weak side to one-time pucks on the power play and has been active on and off the puck in all three zones. 

Stenberg goes about his business differently than Bjorck. He’s more calculating and relies on his elite hockey sense to read how plays are developing. He’s a hard battler along the boards and has the ability to strike quickly when pucks are turned over. Stenberg won’t jump off the page every time his number is called, but he’s efficient and productive, producing 1G-2A so far. 

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