This past off-season the Winnipeg Jets appeared to be at a crossroads as an organization. From the outside looking in, I was concerned about the possibility of certain distractions that had to be dealt with sooner than later. What was the team going to do with Pierre-Luc Dubois? Did the Jets plan on attempting to extend pending 2024 free agents Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck? Or was the team on the verge of a retool?
The Jets’ hockey staff has done a fantastic job revising its roster by moving out players who didn’t appear long for the city (Dubois), buying out a veteran leader and past captain (Blake Wheeler), and signing key parts of their core to long-term extensions (Scheifele and Hellebuyck).
An off-season of potential distractions that could have crept into the dressing room to start the season has been replaced by a confident team identity and a group of players competing hard for each other more often than not.
As Christmas approaches, the Jets have played 30 games this season and find themselves in a battle for top spot in the Central Division. They trail the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars by one point, and have two games in hand of the Avs.
I’ve been wondering if there has been a lot of change year over year with the way the Jets play as a team. Have their special teams improved? Is their goaltending better? Are the core players taking their games to another level?
The simplicity of what stands out is surprising. It’s not complicated.
THE DUBOIS TRADE TO THE KINGS
The first order of business took place ahead of the 2023 NHL Draft in Nashville when the Jets sent Dubois to the LA Kings in a trade that returned the following:
Moving on from Dubois was a necessity. There wasn’t going to be a long-term fit with the player and the Jets organization. Results of the trade will take time to evolve, but it’s easy to see how Gabe Vilardi, Alex Iafallo and Rasmus Kupari fit in with the Jets.
Vilardi dealt with an early-season knee injury, but he’s recovered and contributed five goals and 10 points in 12 games. Iafallo has chipped in five goals and 15 points being deployed at even strength and the power play.
Kupari has been the least impactful of the three so far. He’s skating on the fourth line and, at times, has struggled with his overall detail while contributing only one assist on the year.
(Note: The second-round pick the Jets acquired in the trade is Montreal’s draft slot. Depending on how the Canadiens finish the season, that pick could end up being inside the top 45, which would be a nice bonus for Winnipeg.)
Winnipeg is better off with the players they acquired in the deal with the Kings. Those players have definitely contributed to the success the team is having so far this season. The deal has the potential to look even better down the road, when the second-round pick is used to draft a solid prospect. The Jets could also use the pick to acquire an upgrade in their lineup this year at the trade deadline.
EXTENSIONS/BUY IN
The second order of business for the Jets occurred when the team extended both Hellebuyck and Scheifele to the exact same contract extensions (seven years, $59.5 million).
Getting two key members of their core signed long-term sent a message of commitment by the organization, and buy-in from those players, before the start of the season. It also avoided any potential distraction and “outside noise” about trading them as pending UFAs, which surely would have arisen if they had been unsigned heading into the final year of their contracts.
KEY YEAR OVER YEAR TRENDS
With the amount of parity in the NHL today, small improvement in statistical categories can lead to a big leap in results.
Some of the key categories to analyze include:
• Average goals for per game
• Average goals against per game
• Power play success rate
• Penalty kill success rate
Here’s a look at the Jets’ key categories from last year, compared to this year, and how they rank league wide:
|
|
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
|
GF/G |
3.00 (21st) |
3.30 (13th) |
|
GA/G |
2.73 (10th) |
2.60 (5th) |
|
PP% |
19.3 (23rd) |
16.7 (24th) |
|
PK% |
82.4 (7th) |
73.9 (27th) |
Observation: The Jets are scoring more this season and allowing less against. The difference appears minor, but over the course of a full season the team is on pace to score 25 more goals and allow 11 fewer than last season. These small differences can have a dramatic impact on playoff position, and could possibly get the Jets home-ice advantage in the first-round of the playoffs.
GROUP COMMITMENT
It may be obvious, but teams need their best players to be their best players. It’s one thing for the Jets to lean on scorers like Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers and Josh Morrissey to produce offence, but it’s arguably as important for those players to pay better attention to detail in all three zones and contribute defensively.
Thirty games into the season, it’s easy to recognize the massive improvement the Jets’ offensive players have made defensively.
Here’s a look at last season, compared to this season so far.
Observation: Scheifele, Connor, Morrissey and Ehlers combined to finish last season minus-27 in goals for/goals against difference.
That same group of players so far this season have a combined plus-33 rating.
These statistics provide a swing in a positive direction for the team overall, especially considering the amount of ice time the core Jets group receives every night. The combined contributions from these players has no doubt led to more wins than losses for Winnipeg.
THE GLUE GUYS
Every successful NHL team has a group of “glue guys” in their lineup. Without players who match up against top lines, block shots, contribute secondary offence and push back physically, organizations have zero chance of attaining extended positive results.
In the case of the Winnipeg Jets, they have a group of five players who contribute heavy lifting and make life generally miserable on opponents.
The Jets’ third line has mostly consisted of Mason Appleton, captain Adam Lowry, and Nino Niederreiter. That’s a trio of players who are hard to play against and bring a combination of skill, will, and detail every night. Appleton is 6-foot-2, 195 pounds, Lowry 6-foot-5, 209 pounds, and Neiderreiter 6-foot-2, 218 pounds. The three players have combined for 19 goals, 28 assists, 46 penalty minutes, 121 hits, 63 blocked shots and a plus-28.
(For comparison, the Toronto Maple Leafs are a very good team but players who have spent time on their third line — Max Domi, Noah Gregor, Nick Roberston and Calle Jarnkrok — have 17 goals, 32 assists, 65 penalty minutes, 102 hits, 38 blocked shots and a plus-15 combined. And that’s between four players instead of three)
Two Jets defencemen also play key roles. Both Dylan DeMelo and Brenden Dillon are tasked with shutting down opponents at even strength and the penalty kill. They don’t have any easy shifts, but have combined for six goals, 15 assists, 56 penalty minutes, 136 hits, 96 blocked shots and a plus-28.
Observation: Simply put, the Jets’ coaching staff has to feel very confident when any combination of these five “glue guys” are on the ice. They touch all areas of the game in a positive manner and contribute greatly to overall team success.
THE GOALTENDING
Winnipeg is fortunate to know they have one of the best goalies in the entire NHL protecting their net. Hellebuyck gives the Jets a chance to win every night.
Interestingly, he posted a 2.49 GAA and .920 save percentage last season and, so far this season, his results read 2.43 GAA and .916 save percentage.
Observation: Hellebuyck continues to play at a consistently high level for the Jets, but he isn’t the only reason the team has found early season success. He’s doing what he does best, but the group in front of him is much more committed overall.
FINAL THOUGHTS ON THE JETS
After breaking down trades, signings, and statistics, it becomes very obvious why the Jets are where they are in the standings:
• Winnipeg’s core group of forwards has greatly increased their commitment to defence, without sacrificing offence.
• The team has one of the best third lines in the entire NHL.
• They have defencemen who play to their strengths and keep things simple, and they also have a Vezina quality goaltender who’s a calming influence.
All of the above are simple ingredients for sustainably high-end results.
