Scout’s Analysis: What the Panthers get in Seth Jones, Blackhawks in Spencer Knight

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Scout’s Analysis: What the Panthers get in Seth Jones, Blackhawks in Spencer Knight

The possibility of a Seth Jones trade came to pass fairly quickly.

Appearing on Nick Kypreos’ trade board for the first time in late January, talk of Jones’ situation picked up steam from there, as difficult as it seemed to trade a $9.5 million cap hit to a contender during the season.

It didn’t take long for the player to publicly share his opinion on a move out.

On Feb. 19, Jones told Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun Times that he and the team were discussing the possibility of a trade. The defenceman was seeking an opportunity to win as he didn’t see that possibility on the horizon in Chicago three years after signing an eight-year deal with the Hawks.

As Chicago struggled into a rebuild over Jones’ total of four years with the team, his game also failed to shine. Was he not breaking through because the team’s roster had been stripped down, or due to some overall decline in his game?

The biggest hurdle in trading him, it seemed, was finding a taker for that contract.

“I would like to give myself a chance to win in my career,” Jones told Pope. “I know that the money is not an easy thing to move, and that’s what we’re figuring out.”

Less than a week after those comments, Chicago lost 2-1 to Utah in a game where the Hawks had 39 shot attempts to the Hockey Club’s 93. That loss prompted Jones to sound off about his frustration even further.

“We’re the exact same team right now as we were in Game 1,” Jones said after that game. “It’s pretty evident out there. We haven’t made any strides to be a better, more simple hockey team, and it shows.

“It’s been almost four years at the bottom of the league, it’s not just this year, at least for me.”

At that moment, a trade seemed inevitable, even if the Hawks had to retain money.

Nine days after Jones’ initial comments, Hawks GM Kyle Davidson was able to work through the complicating factors and move Jones to a contender he wanted to go to, while also getting a strong return to aid the rebuild: 23-year-old goalie Spencer Knight, and a conditional first-round pick in either 2026 or 2027.

“I wouldn’t say it was an easy circumstance to navigate just given time crunch and all the factors at play,” Davidson told The Athletic. “Trades are hard to make in the first place, let alone with money and no-move clauses and that kind of thing. There’s just a lot of complicating factors here. It was not easy. I didn’t know how to handicap the likelihood of getting a deal done before the deadline. It was something we were going to explore. I guess we’re happy how it worked out in the end.”

For the Blackhawks, Knight joins a crowded crease that includes both Petr Mrazek and injured Laurent Brossoit signed through next season, as well as pending RFA Arvid Soderblom, a 25-year-old with a career-high .906 save percentage in 28 games this season. Knight has one more year on a contract that pays $4.5 million against the cap and is having the best season of his career as well. His Goals Saved Above Expected total this season is better than Sergei Bobrovsky’s per MoneyPuck.

For the Panthers, the move is interesting for a few reasons.

No. 1 is that they needed another blueliner by this trade deadline and, rather than nibble around the edges for depth, went big and solidified their top four with Jones.

The second reason to consider is what this could mean for Aaron Ekblad. A right-shot blueliner just like Jones, Ekblad is a pending UFA who will get a raise from his current $7.5 million AAV. The Panthers also are facing an expiring contract for Sam Bennett, an important playoff contributor up front. With the cap rising to $95.5 million next season, the Panthers have just under $20 million to work with at the moment. Perhaps they’ll have to choose between Ekblad and Bennett, though the Blackhawks will retain $2.5 million of Jones’ contract through 2029-30, making him just a $7 million defender for Florida.

At that rate, any perceived risk is worth taking for the Panthers.

Lastly, by trading out Knight, the Panthers have opened up a big question about their future in net. Chris Driedger, 30, might stand to be the backup replacement for now, but Sergei Bobrovsky’s $10 million contract expires after next season, and if he extends past that, he’d be 38 years old in the first year of a new deal. Knight’s contract also expires after next season, but instead of creating a path for a handover, the Panthers gave up some of that long-term security to improve their needs in the present.

That’s as it should be for a team that’s gone to back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals and is seeking a repeat championship in 2025.

For more on both sides of this big trade, we turn to our scout, Jason Bukala.

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SCOUT’S ANALYSIS

The Panthers are the defending champs and attempting to position themselves to go on another long run this spring. GM Bill Zito hasn’t been shy about sacrificing draft picks and prospects since he arrived in South Florida. Eventually, the franchise will find itself behind the eight-ball with their organizational depth, but for now, chasing another Stanley Cup is all that matters to the Panthers.

To Florida: Seth Jones

Jones was selected fourth overall at the 2013 NHL draft. The Panthers are the fourth team Jones has suited up for in his career and give the veteran defenceman his best chance at playoff success. The six-foot-four, 213-pound right-shot defender has been a minute muncher throughout his career. He was averaging over 24 minutes per game for the Hawks and being deployed in all situations. 

Jones will provide a secondary layer of offence for the Panthers, especially on the power play. He contributed 7G-20A in 42 games this year in Chicago, including 5G-10A on the power play. His defensive detail does range, but it’s been a long time since he was surrounded by veteran teammates who protect each other when things break down in the defensive zone. I fully expect he will elevate his compete and detail in the defensive zone with the Panthers. 

Florida Panthers draft capital, from PuckPedia.

Jones’ contract was a severe overpayment when it was signed, but it doesn’t look bad at all on the Panthers’ books with Chicago retaining $2.5 million of the cap hit. Paying Jones $7 million per year until 2030 makes a ton of sense from a cap perspective and should age well even as Jones plays into his 30s, given how quickly the upper limit is expected to rise. His addition fills the void that Brandon Montour left on the right side of the Panthers’ defence when he left for Seattle in free agency last summer. 

To Chicago: Spencer Knight, first-round pick

I was the scouting director with the Panthers when we selected Knight 13th overall at the 2019 NHL Draft. He was the best goalie in the world for his age group at the time and a member of the historic Team USA U18 team at the USNTDP that included Jack Hughes, Cole Caufield, Trevor Zegras and Matt Boldy. 

Knight is a very athletic six-foot-three, 191-pound goaltender who suffered through some growing pains early in his career, but has carried his 2.41 GAA and .905 save percentage from the AHL last year and followed it up with a 2.40 GAA and .907 SV% in the NHL this season.

It generally takes goaltenders longer to mature into No. 1 puck stoppers at the NHL level. Knight doesn’t turn 24 until April and so hasn’t entered the prime of his career yet. The best is yet to come. 

Chicago is desperate for momentum from its prospects and overall NHL roster, in too many categories to list. The organization needs to start to turn the corner and win more hockey games. They are burning through the first three years of Connor Bedard’s career with middling results. Adding a future No. 1 netminder in Knight is a step in the right direction, but he won’t win games on his own.

Chicago Blackhawks draft capital, from PuckPedia.

I project Knight will provide them a chance to win more nights than he won’t, but the Hawks need to improve their overall roster in front of him if Knight’s to reach his full potential impact. The first-round pick comes with conditions and provides Chicago the flexibility of making the selection in either 2026 or 2027. Time will tell how the Hawks make use of their draft capital, but I’m of the opinion they should start trading out some of their added capital to acquire NHL roster players, sooner than later.

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