Last year at this time almost every Canadian NHL team found themselves in contention to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, this year is a lot different.
Although half of a season still needs to be played, five of the seven Canadian teams are on the outside looking in when it comes to playoff contention. Three of those teams are closer to contending for the first overall draft pick.
As of Tuesday morning the Vancouver Canucks (32nd), Winnipeg Jets (31st) and Calgary Flames (29th) have some of the best odds to win the draft lottery this spring if their fortunes don’t change dramatically.
If one of these teams were fortunate enough to land the first pick, they will have a difficult choice to make. There’s a ton of talent at the top of this year’s draft class.
Gavin McKenna started the season as the No. 1 ranked player. In late November I wrote about why Keaton Verhoeff had overtaken McKenna. And while both of them are great players worthy of being in the discussion for No. 1, today, coming out of the world juniors, my new No. 1 prospect for the 2026 NHL Draft is Swedish forward Ivar Stenberg.
What you’ll read here is my breakdown of Stenberg’s overall skillset in key categories, why he’s a complete player, as well as his projected role at the NHL level.
(Note: Stenberg’s official size and weight will be confirmed by year’s end. He’s listed at six feet tall by his Swedish team, but NHL Central Scouting has Stenberg listed at five-foot-11 and 183 pounds.
Here’s my reasoning behind rating Stenberg the top prospect at this stage of the season:
Offensive upside
Stenberg’s offensive contribution playing professionally for Frolunda in Sweden’s top pro league (the SHL) is pacing towards record results. The top offensive draft eligible player in SHL history is former Vancouver Canucks star Daniel Sedin who produced 42 points in 50 games during his draft year. Stenberg is at 24 points in 25 games.
Here’s an example of Stenberg attacking off the rush with Frolunda. He gains momentum with the puck on his stick and takes a hit to make the play:
It’s not like Stenberg has snuck up on scouts. I personally have taken notice of his potential upside for several years.
Here’s a clip from my archives, dating back to the 2023 U18 World Championship that I attended in Germany:
Shot volume
Further evidence of Stenberg’s willingness to seek out high danger scoring areas in the offensive zone comes from analyzing where on the ice he directs pucks on net. The large majority of his shots on goal come from between the face-off dots in the opponent’s zone.
Strength and competitiveness
Stenberg doesn’t take any shifts off. He competes in all three zones on and off the puck. His most dynamic element is his offensive upside, but his coaches at the pro level and the most recently completed World Junior Hockey Championship, never shy away from having Stenberg on the ice in close games and taking face-offs in the defensive zone. He leverages along the boards and doesn’t shy away from contact.
Here’s a clip of Stenberg battling along the boards and in front of his opponent’s net at the pro level:
Here’s another sample of the kind of detail Stenberg plays with. He’s properly positioned defensively, battles for the puck along the boards in his own zone and beats two opponents with the puck on his stick. He then enters the offensive zone and proceeds to again extend the play twice before attempting a backhand shot on net:
The new No. 1
Ivar Stenberg leads by example. He plays the game fast, has elite hockey sense and he’s a relentless competitor. The way he attacks the game offensively is a byproduct of his detailed approach overall.
There’s a chance some other prospects might end up scoring more than Stenberg at the NHL level, but if that does happen he won’t be far behind. For example, he ended the WJC fifth in scoring with 4G-6A in seven games. He was plus-5 defensively and averaged 20 minutes of ice time per game.
Stenberg continues to prove he’s the kind of prospect who thrives in high pressure scenarios. He never shies away from the challenge and delivers results when games are being played at the highest level. The harder the game the more his team can count on him rising to the occasion. He’s a complete player.
And now, he’s the new No. 1 overall prospect in 2026.
