Ottawa Senators fans dubbed last off-season “The Summer of Pierre.” General manager Pierre Dorion made a couple of splashy moves (Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux) and expressed confidence the team was ready to compete for the playoffs.
That did not happen. The Senators were effectively out of the running by the 20-game mark (despite a late-season push) and missed the post-season for the sixth year in a row. So, Dorion took another stab at it this summer replacing DeBrincat with Vladimir Tarasenko and signing Joonas Korpisalo to be the Senators’ No. 1 goaltender.
Two years after Dorion declared the rebuild was over, is this the year his plan finally comes to fruition? Questions remain.
The Senators have a legit top line in Giroux, Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stuetzle — a combination that controlled 62.5 per cent of expected goals last season and outscored opponents 30-21 at 5-on-5. The projected second line of Tarasenko, Josh Norris and Drake Batherson, however, is a bit of a mystery.
Tarasenko, who signed a one-year contract late in free agency, is not the prolific scorer he once was. In 69 games with the St. Louis Blues and New York Rangers in 2022-23, Tarasenko averaged 2.61 scoring chances per 20 minutes at 5-on-5 — tied for 50th out of 503 qualified forwards (minimum of 100 minutes). The year before, only Auston Matthews generated more 5-on-5 chances per 20 than Tarasenko, whose goal total fell from 34 to 18 in all situations (26 to 12 at 5-on-5).
Norris missed 74 games last season because of a shoulder injury, preventing him from building off a 35-goal, 55-point performance in 2021-22. The 24-year-old was a menace in front of the net that season, scoring 15 of his 16 goals at 5-on-5 from the inner slot — tied for sixth-most in the NHL. There figures to be some rust after an extended absence, though, and Senators coach D.J. Smith told reporters Wednesday that Norris’ recovery had hit a snag.
Batherson’s ability to get after loose pucks helps extend zone time; his 54 rebound recoveries at 5-on-5 were tied for 13th at the forward position. But he scored only seven goals on 296 shot attempts at 5-on-5 (2.4 per cent).
Tarasenko, Norris and Batherson have the potential to be a productive second line if they bounce back from last season (or, in Norris’ case, pick up where he left off before the injury). That would go a long way toward getting the Senators back in the mix. (It would also help to get young centre Shane Pinto under contract.)
In net, Korpisalo is an upgrade over Anton Forsberg, Cam Talbot and the five other goaltenders who started games for the Senators last season. Korpisalo saved an extra 4.36 goals in all situations for the Columbus Blue Jackets and Los Angeles Kings, which placed him 11th in the league. (By comparison, Talbot, who started a team-high 32 games last season, allowed 12.2 more than expected.)
It was a career-best performance from Korpisalo in his eighth NHL season, but is it replicable? That will in part depend on improved defensive play from the Senators, who ranked 22nd in expected goals against per game last season (3.04). Most of that responsibility rests with the well-rounded top four of Jakob Chychrun, Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub.
There is a lot of optimism in Ottawa ahead of the Senators’ season opener against the Carolina Hurricanes on Wednesday. The sale of the Senators to Michael Andlauer has energized the organization, and the lineup looks solid. Even so, the Senators have a tough hill to climb to make it back to the playoffs.
