OTTAWA — The Battle of Ontario is back, and we are all here for it.
On Saturday night, in their first rematch since Toronto prevailed over Ottawa in the Stanley Cup Playoffs last spring, we witnessed the highest-scoring game ever between the Senators and the Maple Leafs.
It had everything: warm-up shenanigans between Thomas Chabot and Auston Matthews, goals, fisticuffs and stars being stars from each side of the provincial rivalry.
But the Leafs are no longer reliably the older brother pounding on the little brother, although at times it did feel like that in their 7-5 victory. Ottawa has grown up all of a sudden and is playing at the pace of Ridly Greig on an empty net breakaway.
For a long time, the Toronto Maple Leafs were regular-season heroes, while for almost a decade, the Senators dreamt of “meaningful games” late in the season. During those years, the flame of archrivalry between the two teams has been kept alive mostly by the Senators and their fans. To the Leafs, Ottawa was mostly just a minor nuisance.
But the rivalry has swapped dynamics since the early 2000s, when the Senators were the skilled team, but not hard-nosed enough, while Toronto was the feisty, plucky, scrappy team. The roles have reversed with the feisty Greig, Brady Tkachuk, and Nick Cousins; even Tim Stutzle has some jam. Toronto misses Max Domi’s father, Gary Roberts and Travis Green, now on the enemy’s side, have been replaced by Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares and the ghost of Mitch Marner.
The Senators love beating Toronto: even ask their owner, Michael Andlauer, who, to memorialize the rivalry, has declared Jan. 10 — when the Leafs return to the Canadian Tire Centre for the first time this season — as Greig bobblehead night.
Since 2005-06, at least one of the two teams has made the playoffs in 16 of the 20 seasons. But only three times have they both made it in the same season. Last spring, when the regional foes squared off in a hotly contested playoff series, Toronto bested the Sens in six tight games, extending their historical 5-0 dominance in Battle of Ontario playoff series.
Things have changed in the last six months.
Mitch Marner is gone, while Toronto has been sporadic with an underperforming Matthews. Nylander was fabulous until he wasn’t, as losses piled up, leading to Craig Berube claiming to be mystified by his team’s woes: “ask those guys, not me.” Toronto has been rife with injuries to its backend, with Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo missing significant time.
Nevertheless, despite the turmoil, the Leafs find themselves just two points behind the Senators.
Meanwhile, the Sens too have had a stop-and-start season, with key injuries to their captain, Tkachuk, as well as Chabot and Shane Pinto, who’s been one of the NHL breakout players of the 2025-26 campaign. Linus Ullmark has struggled mightily, and the Senators have found ways to lose, often outplaying teams while still grabbing the L.
At the moment, neither team is in a playoff spot. Both have their intentions squarely on getting to the dance, which was evident Saturday night in the first clash of the season between the two teams.
Both teams have their star centres (Matthews/Tim Stutzle), charismatic winger born of NHL bloodlines (Nylander/Tkachuk) and a set of good to great complementary pieces.
On Toronto’s side, Matthews might have had his best game of the season against Ottawa, with a season-high nine shots, notching three points. We still don’t know what to expect of Matthews these days. Is he the superstar who showed up against Ottawa, or the good but not great player now on pace for the fewest points since his rookie season?
It’s been a similar story lately with many of the Leafs’ stars. Nylander opened the scoring versus Ottawa but left the game. He’s an all-world talent who has feuded with his coach and recently went scoreless in eleven straight. With Marner gone, the core four is no more, and an aging Tavares is slowly losing his umph.
In the meantime, Morgan Rielly is not having a great season, though he showed what he can still do Saturday night, setting up Matthew Knies for a beautiful game-winning goal.
Juxtapose Rielly with Ottawa’s best defenceman, Jake Sanderson, who has slowly elevated into one of the best defencemen in the league.
While many of the premier players on the Leafs are sagging this season, the best of the Sens are surging. Stutzle has morphed into one of the best centres in the game while still only being 23 years of age. He scored one of the nicest goals on one of the nastiest moves you’ll ever see on Hockey Night in Canada.
Finally, Ottawa has depth from Pinto and Claude Giroux on their third line, and Chabot’s growth as an elite second-pairing defenceman.
Tkachuk was out with an injury for much of the season, but is regaining form.
When you look at the analytics, Ottawa’s skaters have clearly been superior to Toronto’s this season. Ottawa is fourth in expected goals share at five-on-five; Toronto is 22nd. Ottawa is sixth in shot differential; Toronto is 30th.
What Toronto has had, which Ottawa hasn’t, is elite goaltending, which was probably the biggest difference when the two sides met in the playoffs last season and again on Saturday night. Ottawa sits last in team save percentage this season, while Toronto is 15th. Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby have been great, while the injured Anthony Stolarz outduelled Linus Ullmark in the playoffs last season.
Saturday night’s game turned on two shots Ullmark should not have allowed. “I didn’t like the two goals… and I put Leevi (Merilainen) in,” said Travis Green about why he swapped goaltenders in the second.
Ullmark sits last in the NHL in goals saved above expected this season.
If Ottawa doesn’t get stops, this feud could be moot.
Looking beyond this season, the two teams are in very different places. The Senators have locked up their core for the next few years, all of whom are in their early to mid-twenties. Stutzle and Sanderson are signed until at least 2030 on team-friendly deals. There’s plenty of reason for hope in the next few years.
Admittedly, the Sens don’t have a first-round pick this season, but the Leafs don’t have one until 2028. Toronto has few prospects, and if Matthews isn’t an MVP-calibre player, the window to contend may be over. But he is a player with a 69-goal season under his belt and is still under 30 years old.
There is a pathway to Beleaf in Toronto.
What Toronto has is a proven track record, making the playoffs for nine consecutive seasons. Ottawa is still plotting that course. The Leafs are also a big market team that can easily spend to the cap, which will rise in the years to come, while as a small market team, Ottawa will have to be prudent and may not be able to spend to the upper echelons.
It was Troy Stetcher of all people, with his impassioned celebration after the buzzer rang in Toronto’s victory on Saturday as a brawl ensued around him, who typified the passion of the Battle of Ontario.
It wasn’t just a regular-season game. It was more.
We know what hockey fans in Ontario want for their fandoms: hockey in April of every year.
Battle of Ontario 2.0.
