OTTAWA — The battle between the team that has Brady Tkachuk and the team that might want Brady Tkachuk wasn’t close. It simply wasn’t a good night for Tkachuk’s Ottawa Senators, who lost 5-0 to the New York Rangers.
Earlier this season, a report in the New York Post suggested there were trade talks between the Senators and Rangers surrounding Tkachuk. Everyone dismissed the trade rumours, from Tkachuk himself to Senators owner Michael Andlauer, who called the rumours “soft tampering” by the Rangers.
The discussion surrounding Tkachuk’s future in Ottawa died down as soon as the Senators turned their season around, rolling off six wins in a row shortly after the rumours. However, it is time to have a discussion about Tkachuk’s play. He extended his pointless drought to eight games on Tuesday, which is his longest since his rookie season. Has his game dropped off enough to be trade fodder?
Obviously, not.
But the Senators do need more from their captain. On Tuesday, Tkachuk and his team sleepwalked through the first 30 minutes. As soon as Tkachuk grew into the game, so did his team. But it was too late.
In the first period, Tkachuk threw a bad no-look pass in his own zone on the platter for a Ranger, leading to a chance. The carelessness he and his whole team displayed early on sank them. It’s never all on Tkachuk, and you couldn’t point to one Senator who played well against New York. But as Tkachuk often says, it starts with him.
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After his team fell behind 2-0 early in the second period, Tkachuk made a push but he was robbed by Igor Shesterkin on a slot shot that would beat most goaltenders in the NHL. Seconds later, Tkachuk drew a penalty on Will Borgen. But on the power play, the captain couldn’t capitalize, whiffing on two chances at the side of the net that would have breathed life to the Senators.
“It shows maturity that now we had chances, but didn’t let those missed chances frustrate us and (make us) go outside of our structure,” said Tkachuk about his team’s play despite not scoring many goals.
Some critics have questioned Tkachuk’s maturity, which initially led to the trade speculation in November after he got into multiple fights against the Vancouver Canucks. It happened again in New York. With his team still having at least a faint chance of coming back down 3-0, Tkachuk recklessly interfered with Shesterkin, leading to a melee where Shesterkin went after Tkachuk. Tkachuk did fend off Shesterkin and Braden Schneider. But sometimes, a cooler head needs to prevail in a fiery, emotion-driven sport. On the ensuing penalty, Artemi Panarin made it 4-0 to all but end the game.
It was an example of what became a storyline earlier this season. Ottawa, at times, needs its captain to be more calculated when choosing to fight. Even in Ottawa’s recent comeback against Boston, Tkachuk took a penalty for fighting Parker Wotherspoon in the offensive zone. After his team killed the penalty, the Senators quickly earned a power play but Tkachuk couldn’t play on it because he took a four-minute penalty. Thankfully, the Senators made their dramatic comeback against Boston, or else Tkachuk would have looked foolish.
For what it’s worth, Tkachuk is saying the right things, as the Senators have gone 5-2-1 in his pointless drought.
“I think I’d give up any amount of points, just if it results in winning,” Tkachuk said last Friday.
“I’m confident in myself that it’s just going to happen eventually,” said Tkachuk about producing points. “So, I’m not going to stress and worry about it.”
Star players have unbridled belief, and that’s what Tkachuk should say.
What’s interesting is that in Tkachuk’s recent cold stretch, his team has continued to win. But the Senators need Tkachuk to flicker the goal light consistently to maintain their current playoff spot.
It hasn’t just been Tkachuk, the entire team has struggled to score. The Senators are ranked 24th in the league in goals for but since Nov. 15 are tied for dead last in the NHL in goals per game.
They were awful against New York, but the Senators have found success during Tkachuk’s cold stretch by winning low-event games. It’s a skill.
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But against the Rangers, the Senators generated only four high-danger chances, according to Natural Stat Trick, Tkachuk had four shots. It’s part of a theme as the Senators are 25th in high-danger chances this season.
There are positives, though. Tkachuk, while struggling offensively, has grown defensively. Late in the first period against the Rangers, Tkachuk chased back on a three-on-two, and slid on his knees to stop a pass to negate a great chance. He made a similar play last week against Washington late in the third period to preserve a point.
Tkachuk told Sportsnet ahead of the season that his main goal was to become a shutdown guy.
He’s done so.
Tkachuk ranks 118th out of 767 skaters at 2.09 expected goals allowed at five-on-five per 60 minutes, according to Evolving-Hockey.
Nonetheless, as good of a defensive team as the Senators have been, ranking ninth in goals allowed, they won’t be able to survive forever scoring at the worst rate in the NHL.
Tkachuk’s underlying numbers have been fine in his last eight games, falling below 50-per-cent shot share and expected goals three times. Against New York, his analytics were superb again, finishing second on the team in both, a shot share of 65.38 per cent and 86.46 per cent of expected goals share at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick. Nevertheless, Tkachuk didn’t produce in a game against a team the Senators are battling for a playoff berth. He is now on pace for fewer goals and points than he’s had in the last two seasons, where he registered career highs in different categories.
Tkachuk has shown himself to be a play-driver in his career.
The captain started this season hot while playing with Tim Stutzle, registering a point in 11 of the first 12 games. Around that point, coach Travis Green separated Stutzle and Tkachuk to balance the lines. Ever since, Tkachuk has slowed down, earning 22 points in 35 games, and so has Stutzle, who has fallen below a point per-game. The kicker is that the team has been winning. It’s been working, but can it keep working?
“When the puck starts getting to the net more and we continue our defensive play, that will be even more of a recipe for success,” Tkachuk said.
After Tuesday’s defeat, the Senators have been shut out twice in their last four games. Ideally, the Senators need both Stutzle and Tkachuk humming at the same time. Nobody has sustainably found chemistry with Tkachuk and Stutzle on their separate lines, and the need for another top-six player to give a jolt of scoring is obvious.
Regardless, they need more from Tkachuk. Defence is great, but he’s paid to score. The Senators will struggle to earn a playoff berth if Tkachuk can’t get out of his funk.
