The Toronto Raptors are entering Monday’s matchup against Pascal Siakam and the Indiana Pacers with just 25 games remaining on the season.
With a record of 21-36, a push for the playoffs seems unlikely but that doesn’t mean there aren’t other important narratives worth following.
Here are six top storylines to keep an eye on for the final stretch of the Raptors’ season.
Play-in for what?
In 2021, when the Raptors were in Tampa, Fla., due to the pandemic, president Masai Ujiri scoffed at the idea of pursuing a play-in spot, saying “Play-in for what?” before explaining his goal was working towards championships not just post-season appearances.
It’s been three years since that moment and this iteration of the team is very different — younger, newer, and not nearly as battle-tested.
That’s largely why when head coach Darko Rajakovic was asked about the Raptors (who are currently 12th in the Eastern Conference) being in the hunt for a play-in spot, he said “It’s very important… trying to catch up for a play-in (spot), try to make the playoffs, and to grow at the same time, all those aspects are important for us.”
Since returning from the break Toronto’s heeded the words of their bench boss, defeating the Brooklyn Nets (11th in the East) and Atlanta Hawks (10th) while climbing to 3.5 games back of the final play-in spot.
That, along with the news that Hawks All-Star guard Trae Young will miss at least four weeks as he recovers from surgery to repair a torn finger ligament, leaves the door for a possible play-in appearance open a little wider.
Basketball Reference currently gives the Raptors an 11.3 per cent chance of making it happen, but given the team’s apparent desire to pursue post-season experience, the possibility is growing less farfetched.
Keep or convey?
With the Raptors’ supposed plan to remain competitive through the closing stretch of action, their draft day decisions in June are sure to be impacted.
As things stand, Toronto has the seventh-worst record in the league and a 32 per cent chance of landing a top-four pick. However, they have a 54 per cent chance of slotting in the seventh or eighth spot, and since they owe the San Antonio Spurs a top-six protected pick, that would mean saying goodbye to any potential selection.
For what it’s worth, the Raptors do own the Pacers’ first-round pick (currently No. 17) and a high second-round selection courtesy of the Detroit Pistons (31st).
Whether you’re on the side of keeping the pick or conveying it this year, watching it all unfold as every win and loss shifts those odds back and forth will make for plenty of intrigue.
Can RJ Barrett keep it up?
Since joining his hometown team Barrett has been on a torrid run, averaging 20.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.7 assists — all of which would be career highs if he can keep them up.
More than the counting stats, it’s the 23-year-old’s efficiency that’s really popped. Barrett’s true shooting percentage is currently the best of his career (61 per cent) and playing within Rajakovic’s ball movement offence has allowed him to utilize his downhill speed and strength more than during his New York Knicks tenure.
The guard is scoring on 60 per cent of his attempts inside the arc and his relentless pressure at the basket has even opened up passing lanes, allowing Barrett to demonstrate his playmaking chops.
However, the former third-overall pick’s biggest knock as a pro has been his inconsistency. Barret’s shown stretches of All-Star potential, but at other times he’s let his tunnel vision approach get the best of him. He’ll have these 25 games to convince fans that his recent play isn’t just another flash in the pan and instead is the version of him that they can expect on a nightly basis.
Which Scottie Barnes do we see?
Barnes has all the makings of becoming a franchise player as the first-time All-Star has exceeded many expectations by averaging career-highs in points (20), rebounds (8.2), and assists (six) this season.
His talent isn’t questioned. What needs to be seen is can the 22-year-old manage the weight of a rebuilding franchise being placed on his shoulders? It’s a lot to ask of any player, especially of one in their third season, but when the organization is likely going to hand him a rookie-scale max extension next year, that responsibility becomes part of the job.
Prior to the All-Star break, Barnes’ ability to handle duress was put under scrutiny as he left the bench early in a blowout loss to the Spurs, visibly displaying his frustration on the court multiple times throughout the game like he’s done on a couple of occasions.
In the final game before the All-Star break, Barnes seemed to dispel most of the noise as he looked more engaged, even immediately providing encouragement to Barrett after he missed a game-tying basket at the buzzer against the Pacers.
In the Raptors’ two games since their return to action Barnes has looked focused and motivated, but winning those contests has probably made that a lot easier.
Can he keep that up even when they inevitably lose some more frustrating games? Or will he revert back to letting his emotions get the better of him?
Will there be a development breakout?
Even while making a push into the post-season, player development is still the top priority for this young Raptors squad.
The Raptors used to rely on their ability to unearth potential from players and the organization has expressed a desire to return to those roots while rebuilding. Which begs the question, will we see the Raptors’ latest development home run during these 25 games?
Immanuel Quickley, in his last two games, has looked more comfortable in a starting point guard role, dropping 24 points in both contests on 50 per cent three-point shooting while initiating the offence with more conviction.
There’s also Gradey Dick, who’s seemingly turned around his season since rejoining the team from a conditioning stint on Jan. 17 and earning a spot in the rotation. The 13th overall pick has shot 45 per cent from deep, 50 per cent from the field, and played the sixth most minutes for the Raptors during that 15-game span.
Meanwhile, Ochai Agbaji is coming off his best game with the Raptors since joining the team at the trade deadline. The former lottery pick scored 14 points against the Hawks while knocking down four of his five triples and finishing the game a plus-13.
Needless to say, there’s lots of potential on this roster, and the final 25 games provides an opportunity for the group to continue to grow together.
Will the Raptors hit their projected win total?
Toronto’s over/under line for wins this season was set at 36.5 coming into this season, the lowest it’s been since the 2013-14 campaign (aside from the shortened post-pandemic 2021 season).
They’ve hit the over in 10 of their last 12 seasons, doing it eight consecutive times at one point, but have only managed to do it twice in the last four years. The Raptors need 16 more wins to hit the over and it’ll be a tall task considering 18 of their final 25 games are against teams with winning records.
