A.J. Hinch is back in the post-season and back in Houston and even though it’s with the Detroit Tigers and not the Astros, well, let’s get the garbage-can-banging jokes out of the way right now, shall we?
Hinch has managed the hell out of the 2024 Tigers. His ace and Game 1 starter just won the American League Triple Crown but the pitcher who would have been his nominal No. 2 was traded at the trade deadline. No problem: Hinch’s team rolled with Keider Montero, a whole lot of wishful thinking and a sturdy bullpen. The Tigers will open a best-of-three series at Minute Maid Park on Tuesday after a regular season in which they had the most relief innings pitched in the majors (55 innings more than the runners-up Chicago White Sox but for oh-so different reasons) and the second-most pinch-hit appearances.
Hinch’s fingerprints are all over his team, just as they were all over the Astros scandal in a buck-stops-here kind of way
Hinch, of course, was suspended for a year in November, 2019 (and fired on the same day) as part of a series of disciplinary decisions resulting from the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. Hinch had managed the Astros since 2015, leading them to two World Series, including the franchise’s first win in 2017. Other than Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow, who was also fired and now owns baseball teams in Mexico and Spain, you can make the case that Hinch lost more than anyone involved in the scandal.
Other than getting booed on the road and nasty looks from their peers, the players skated by in return for cooperating with the commissioner’s office — under the protection of the Major League Baseball Players Association. Shoot, even Hinch’s bench coach, Alex Cora, had already won a World Series with the Boston Red Sox when his retroactive suspension came down. He was fired and rehired a year later and signed a three-year, $21-million extension this season.
Hinch did great one fortuitous break: he lost out to the ghost of Tony La Russa Jr., when White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf interceded in his teams managerial search in 2021. Apparently, Hinch wasn’t old school enough for Reinsdorf.
The Astros have made the post-season eight consecutive seasons and have played in seven consecutive AL Championship Series, but this will be only the second time they’ve had to do so through a wild-card series. They beat the Minnesota Twins 2-0 in 2020, took down the Oakland Athletics in four games before losing the ALCS to the Tampa Bay Rays in seven games.
If the Tigers and Astros both dropped the hammer to seize post-season berths, the exact opposite can be said of the teams the Baltimore Orioles/Kansas City Royals series. Both limped in — between Aug. 28 and Sept. 22, the Royals had two separate seven-game losing streaks — but the series will feature several of MLB’s brightest young stars, including the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, Cole Ragans and transcendent Bobby Witt Jr. Considering the Orioles’ evisceration last season when they were swept out of their AL Division Series in three games by the Texas Rangers, somebody’s post-season pedigree is about to begin being made.
Here, then, are Six To Watch in the AL wild-card series:
• Zach Eflin, SP, Orioles: Corbin Burnes’ acquisition before the start of the season addressed the issue of who would be the Orioles ace and, by extension, Game 1 starter in any post-season series. Which brings us to Eflin, who will take MLB’s second-best walks-per-nine-innings into an expected Game 2 start. Eflin isn’t Tarik Skubal — who was the topic of trade talks between the Orioles and Tigers at the deadline — but considering the loss of Grayson Rodriguez since July 31 with lat/teres discomfort, general manager Mike Elias’ acquisition on July 26 of Eflin from the Tampa Bay Rays for three minor leaguers looks prescient.
You wonder about the five walks Eflin issued in his last start — against the New York Yankees — after allowing just 19 bases-on-balls in his previous 27 starts. He has also given up five HRs in his last four starts. And Eflin was just so-so in a post-season start for the Rays last season after turning in strong strong relief work for the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies. But with Game 1 a toss-up at the very, very best in terms of starters, Eflin’s ability to keep things in order in Game 2 could be vital for a team with a bullpen that has been third-worst in ERA since the All-Star Break.
• Lucas Erceg, RP, Royals: The last time the Royals were in the post-season was 2015, when they won the World Series a year after losing in the Fall Classic. One of the trademarks of those teams was a lock-down, three-headed back end of the bullpen built around Greg Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera. That trio was so dominant that when Holland missed the 2015 playoffs, Davis assumed the closer’s role without a hiccup. This season, the bullpen has been a point of concern, yet they’d gone 27 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run until Travis d’Arnaud’s walk-off HR on Saturday.
The Royals bullpen has pitched to an ERA of 2.00 down the stretch, second only to the Cleveland Guardians. Erceg — acquired at the deadline from the Oakland Athletics — has emerged as the closer, recording 11 saves and holding opponents to a .194 average while striking out 31 and walking three over 25 innings, and posting a 0.84 WHIP. Given some of the concerns surrounding the Orioles bullpen, this could be an area where the Royals have a quiet edge.
• Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers: I mean, let’s save the over-thinking for subsequent rounds, shall we? The consensus AL Cy Young favourite, Skubal spent most of the first half of 2024 hearing he was likely going to be traded to a — quote — “contender” at the deadline. He’s with a contender, all right. Skubal’s quality of stuff allows him to dominate hitters in the zone and he isn’t picky: he’s given up three extra-base hits (one home run) in 89 plate appearances by cleanup hitters, striking out 24 and walking four. That’s just a sample of his dominance.
Beyond the stuff and numbers, though, you can make the case that no other starting pitcher in this post-season carries as much weight on their shoulders: Hinch’s aggressive bullpen use depends on his only bona fide starter going really deep in Game 1. A blip in a short series would be deadly.
• Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros: Yordan Alvarez’s status for the wild-card series was up in the air as late as Sunday, and even if his sprained knee is deemed fit, it stands to reason that in the very least he will be compromised. Chas McCormick, meanwhile, is rehabilitating from a fractured hand. The Astros also have questions around Justin Verlander and the bullpen — especially closer Josh Hader — is wobbly. And with there being a real sense that Alex Bregman’s imminent free-agent departure will pull away another thread from a team that is as close to dynastic as any in recent years— man, Kyle Tucker could write himself large after a couple of so-so post-seasons. Tucker, who is eligible for free agency after next season, has been on a tear since being reinstated from the Injured List, batting .365 with two doubles, four homers, nine RBI and a 1.041 OPS.
• Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles: By dint of personality and the degree of respect he has in the Orioles clubhouse, there is something that has been Jeter-esque about Rutschman since he broke into the Major Leagues. And while it might seem unfair to say it is time for the Orioles to lay down a post-season marker … well, it’s time for the Orioles to lay down a post-season marker. Just ask Bo and Vladdy how quickly a window of opportunity gets snuffed out. Rutschman has had a difficult second half, hitting just .211 and at one point suffering through a career-high 22-game homerless streak. His slug at Camden Yards? Gone. Disappeared. He has had six multi-RBI games since the All-Star Break, albeit three in the last 15 games and since July 7 is flirting with .200 average against lefty pitching. (Hello there, Cole Ragans.) After a 1-for-12 outing in his first taste of post-season play in 2023 … well, again: it’s time.
• Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals: The AL’s Most Valuable Player (Non-Aaron Judge Division) will make his post-season debut in the first year of an 11-year, $288.8-million contract after a regular season in which he became the first player since Mookie Betts (2018) to lead the Majors in batting average during a 30-homer/30-steal season. His 210 hits are the most by a shortstop since Derek Jeter led MLB with 216 hits in 2012. No other player in history has posted multiple 30/30 seasons within his first three big league campaigns. So, he’s good. Given the uncertainty surrounding Vinnie Pasquantino’s health and Salvador Perez’s sudden loss of slug, there’s even more riding on his shoulders
JEFF BLAIR’S PREDICTIONS
• Astros defeat Tigers, 2-1
• Orioles defeat Royals, 2-1
