The defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning already held off one legitimate challenger in a high-event, exciting Round 1 series. Now they’ll face another, and the Carolina Hurricanes are further down the road to contender status than the Florida Panthers.
This series could be the one to watch in Round 2, with last year’s Cup winners facing this year’s Central Division champs. The Lightning have climbed the mountain, but the Canes seem on their way there. Carolina’s blue line has long been celebrated as one of the league’s best and they’ve been a Corsi champion for years, but in the past couple seasons the goal scoring has started to come as well and the arrival of rookie goalie Alex Nedeljkovic has solidified last year’s area of weakness.
The Lightning, of course, are as solid and deep as ever and now have the experience of winning four rounds in their back pocket.
Go back just over a month and you’ll find the last time these two teams met in a couple of meaningful games. On April 19, the Canes had a two-point lead on Tampa for top spot in the Central with one game in hand. Carolina started Petr Mrazek, Tampa went with Andrei Vasilevskiy — the Lighting outshot the Canes 36-27 and outlasted them 3-2 in OT after the Canes scored the game-tying goal in the third. The very next night they played again, this time with Nedeljkovic going against Vasilevskiy. The Canes held the shot advantage this time, 36-27, and came away with a 4-1 win.
The Canes then got three of a possible four points against Florida to close out that week, and it ended up being the turning point toward them claiming the division title — and claiming home-ice advantage.
Of course, the Lightning didn’t have Nikita Kucherov or Steven Stamkos in either of those games. Both are back now and they finished first and tied for second on team scoring in Round 1.
Everyone starts at zero again now anyways. Pressure ramps up and offence tends to be harder to come by. However, it is worth noting that both of these teams are coming off pretty wide open series. Tampa’s four goals per game average and Carolina’s 3.67 rank second and third in these playoffs so far, while both starting goalies also have similar numbers and helped play a difference in Round 1.
Although these teams were Southeast Division rivals for 14 seasons, they’ve never met in the playoffs before. Now they’ll face off with a semifinal berth on the line and both with a legitimate case on being the best in their division.
“We’re getting the Stanley Cup champs,” Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour said Thursday night. “We know what we’re up against. We’re going to have to be as good as we can to have a chance against these guys. Especially now that they’ve got their full group back.”
Here’s how the teams match up.
ADVANCED STATS
Regular season 5-on-5 numbers via Natural Stat Trick
Carolina: 53.94 CF% (4th), 56.45 GF% (4th), .935 SV% (2nd), 7.38 SH% (27th)
Tampa Bay: 52.37 CF% (9th), 53.37 GF% (12th), .921 SV% (10th), 8.43 SH% (12th)
REGULAR SEASON TEAM STATS
Carolina: 25.6 PP% (2nd), 85.2 PK% (3rd), 3.13 GF/G (11th), 2.39 GA/G (T-4th)
Tampa Bay: 22.2 PP% (9th), 84.2 PK% (4th), 3.21 GF/G (9th), 2.59 GA/G (6th)
HEAD TO HEAD RECORD
Carolina: 4-3-1
Tampa Bay: 4-3-1
THE STORY OF HOW THEY GOT HERE
Carolina Hurricanes: They’ve been steadily building toward this moment for a few years — really ever since drafting Andrei Svechnikov second overall in 2018. Even though they missed the playoffs that season, Carolina still topped the league in Corsi For percentage in 2017-18, but had league-worst goaltending and an offence that ranked in the bottom-third.
So much has changed.
Svechnikov, for one, has already blossomed into a dangerous goal scorer, which goes hand-in-hand with Sebastian Aho‘s rise and now Martin Necas is taking strides to being a scorer who’s tough to contain as well. Carolina has always been a team that could generate a good amount of shots and defend well, so their Corsi measures have always looked good. They just didn’t have enough finishers for a while, and now they do. Along with the younger players mentioned, Vincent Trocheck has absolutely exploded, finished as a near-point-per-game player this season, and makes last year’s trade a big win for the franchise.
The Canes had the 11th-best offence last season and still were eliminated in a quick five games by Boston in Round 1. They finished 11th in offence again this season, so why should we view them any differently than last year’s team?
This is where Nedeljkovic comes in. The Hurricanes finished with with the league’s 17th-best save percentage last season and improved to third in the stat in 2021. The rookie netminder wasn’t a big part of their plans at first, possible expansion draft fodder, and was put on waivers in January. He made his first start in February and really never looked back. In 23 games he had a 1.90 GAA and .932 save percentage that put him in the Calder Trophy discussion, and in Round 1 against Nashville he faced 205 shots — third-most in the league so far — and had a .922 save percentage that’s only slightly below what Vasilevskiy did in Round 1.
“He didn’t look like a rookie that’s for sure,” Brind’Amour said. “That was a big part of the series for us. His puck handling is able to get us out of trouble and alleviate a lot of the stress. He was solid and that’s what you gotta have this time of year.”
The pressure will pick up as we go here, and facing the defending champs is a tall task. The Hurricanes allowed the first goal in five of their six first-round games against Nashville and, credit to them, had great bounce back in their game. But can that work against the polished Lightning? Tampa Bay was 22-4-1 when scoring first in the regular season and 12-1 when scoring first in last year’s playoffs.
Tampa Bay Lightning: It’s incredible, really. Without Nikita Kucherov for the entire regular season, missing Steven Stamkos for 18 games and seeing Victor Hedman battle through an injury down the stretch and not be at his best, the Lightning still sort of cruised along and had a shot at the division title until late in the year. Now everyone is back, they survived a tough series against Florida and the Lightning look every bit the team they were en route to the Cup in 2020.
Tampa was one of just two teams (Colorado being the other) to finish top 10 in goals for, goals against, shots for, shots against, power-play percentage and penalty-killing percentage this season. That’s the thing with the Lightning — they can play you any which way. The Panthers wanted to play high-event in Round 1 so Tampa played along and came out on top. The Canes, too, tend to lean toward the speedier side of things, but they do have a better blue line than Florida (who was without Aaron Ekblad).
And, of course, the Lightning played and defeated a very defence-heavy Dallas Stars team in last year’s final.
As great a story as Nedeljkovic is in Carolina, Tampa will answer with Vasilevskiy, one of the world’s best netminders and a favourite for this year’s Vezina. In fact, with Kucherov, Hedman and Vasilevskiy, the Lightning might have the best player at every position this series and their depth is nothing to shake a stick at either.
Pat Maroon and Ross Colton contributed key goals in Round 1 from the fourth line. Kucherov and Stamkos play on separate lines and on the third? No problem. Blake Coleman and Yanni Gourde have been known to contribute offence in big moments, too.
The Lightning have long been one of the more skilled teams in the league and broke through last year when their defence tightened and they bought in more to the gritty side of things. That all remains true in 2021. Their regular season was darn good, but they can’t be measured by any of it. The team you’re seeing now is the best version of the Lightning and they’re coming off a series that should prepare them well for the challenge ahead in Round 2.
Carolina Hurricanes X-Factor: Jaccob Slavin
Some defence is going to have to be played eventually, right? Slavin is a huge influence on this side of things.
Slavin missed Games 2, 3 and 4 of Carolina’s opening series. Nashville’s regulation shots in those games were 32, 34 and 26. In the three games Slavin played, Nashville managed 24, 25 and 26 regulation shots on net.
Even further, he helps make his D partner Dougie Hamilton even better — and that guy is a Norris contender. In 76:03 of 5-on-5 ice time without Slavin in Round 1, Hamilton was on the ice for five goals for and five goals against. In the 47:28 of 5-on-5 ice time they did play together in Round 1, the Canes outscored the Preds 4-1. Without Slavin, Hamilton was on the ice for as many high-danger scoring chances for as against; with Slavin, Hamilton and the Canes had a distinct advantage there, earning over 68 per cent of the high danger opportunities.
Slavin also occupies the left side of the ice on one of the penalty kill units — the same side of the ice Kucherov likes to occupy for his one-timers (or fake one-timer passes).
“He goes in the lineup, we didn’t lose,” Brind’Amour said after Carolina won their opening series. “He’s that important to this team. We all know he makes everyone around him better. He plays with Dougie most of the time, that’s only going to make Dougie better. It’s a great pair, he was obviously the difference maker.”
Tampa Bay Lightning X-Factor: Andrei Vasilevsky
Picking one of the world’s best goalies as the X-Factor? Boy really going out on a limb there, guy.
Hear me out.
Vasilevskiy was dominant in the playoffs last season, finishing with a .927 save percentage and allowing more than three goals in a game just three times. He’s already allowed more than three goals against twice in these playoffs and the difference might just be the kinds of teams Tampa has faced.
Consider that in 2020, Tampa met the Columbus Blue Jackets, Boston Bruins, New York Islanders and Stars in the playoffs. Boston, which had the ninth-best offence in the league last season, was the only one of those teams to finish within the top-21 regular season offences. This is no knock on any of the teams Tampa beat on its way to the Cup last season — the Islanders and Stars especially will challenge teams in many other difficult ways — but Vasilevskiy should face more rubber this time.
Florida had the NHL’s fourth-best offence this season. Carolina ranked 11th and was top five in generating shots. The Panthers threw everything at Tampa to score 16 times in six games, but in the critical Game 6 Vasilevskiy came up with his best effort and shut out the Panthers with 29 saves. That was his game-breaking moment and he could have a similar impact against the high-flying Hurricanes.
