Here’s something, on the first day of December, you wouldn’t expect to say about a team that in late October was last in its group: Are the Tampa Bay Lightning a lock to win the Atlantic Division?
Actually, let’s go one further: Is Tampa the safest bet to win its division in the NHL?
Two teams — the Lighting and the freakin’ insane Colorado Avalanche — have four-point leads in their division right now. On Sunday, Sportsnet was touting the idea Colorado could break the all-time points record set by the Boston Bruins (135) in 2022-23. If you want to bet a nickel on Nathan MacKinnon’s team to merely claim the Central Division, nobody is going to stop you.
That said, even after burying the Montreal Canadiens 7-2 on Saturday for their 11th win in 12 tries, the Avs are still dealing with a Dallas Stars squad that — after their own beatdown of an Atlantic club, a 6-1 walloping of Ottawa on Sunday night — is 10-1-1 in its past 12. There’s also the hard-charging Minnesota Wild, who beat the Avs 3-2 in a shootout Friday night.
The Avs have a game in hand on both teams and it’s hard to imagine Minny making up a nine-point gap. But Dallas could certainly erase that four-point deficit and even if they’re clear of the Wild, the Avalanche still have to face the strong squad three more times this season — not to mention three more tilts with the Stars, to boot.
Now let’s look at Tampa.
The Bolts, who beat the Wings in Detroit on Friday and the New York Rangers in Madison Square Garden 24 hours later, are now 15-3-0 since waking up the morning of Oct. 24 last in the division (and tied for second-last in the conference) with a .286 points percentage after seven games.
Tampa has now won seven straight games despite the fact captain Victor Hedman and fellow top-four D-man Ryan McDonagh have both been out for nearly a month. Erik Cernak, another key blue-liner for this club, has been sidelined for over a week.
How good are the Lightning going to be when those defencemen return? And, more to the point, how good will they have to be to win the Atlantic anyway?
Tampa’s plus-19 goal-differential is the only positive figure in the group; its .680 points percentage is No. 1 and Montreal (.604) is the only other team over .600.
By points percentage, Tampa Bay’s closest pursuers are Montreal, Ottawa (.560), Boston (.556) and Detroit (.538).
The Canadiens and Senators have some proof of concept, having made the playoffs last year, but neither one of them is a club you look at and feel good about placing ahead of the Bolts. The Bruins have been plucky this year, but remain in some form of a soft reset, while the Wings are trying to break a near decade-long absence from the playoffs and will be life and death to do so.
Beneath those teams sits a Florida Panthers club that’s going through it with vital players injured long-term, while the Toronto Maple Leafs are clumsily trying to find their way through life after Mitch Marner.
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Do any of those six teams sound like a better bet to pass the Bolts than Dallas is to jump Colorado?
(Out of respect to Tampa, we’re not even mentioning the Buffalo Sabres).
There’s an in-the-bone, institutional knowledge element to Tampa when it comes to winning games. There’s also defenceman Darren Raddysh producing 13 points in his past eight games to provide an offensive surge Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier and Nikita Kucherov would all be proud of. (OK, Kucherov has 18 points in his past nine games, but you get the point).
Suffice it to say, everything on the ice is going right for Tampa.
But even when it’s not, which Atlantic club do you like to take the Bolts down?
Weekend takeaways
• It’s getting a little harder to completely dismiss the Philadelphia Flyers after they earned two road victories against division rivals on the weekend, a 4-3 shootout win on Long Island on Friday and a 5-3 victory on Saturday in Jersey against one of the top squads in the East. Those wins gave the Flyers three straight road W’s and a 6-2-0 record in their past eight.
Trevor Zegras has obviously been a dream fit in Philly and he scored against both the Isles and Devils (and, naturally, also kicked in a successful shootout attempt versus New York as the best shootout artist the league has ever known). Another off-season pickup, Christian Dvorak, isn’t getting quite the same ink as Zegras, but he’s been incredibly important to the Flyers’ success, too. Dvorak — who inked a one-year, get-right deal after injury troubles plagued much of his time in Montreal — picked up an apple on Owen Tippett’s game-opening goal against the Devils and the line of Dvorak between Zegras and Tippett has been a good one for first-year Philly coach Rick Tocchet.
It comes with caveats — even during their recent good run, the Flyers’ underlying numbers aren’t great — but Philadelphia sits in a playoff spot right now and has a positive goal differential at plus-1.
• Staying in the Metro, the Washington Capitals have now won four straight (and seven of eight) after downing the Islanders 4-1 on Sunday afternoon. Following 2-6-2 dip from late October through mid-November, the Caps are rolling. Washington’s plus-27 goal differential at five-on-five is the only one in the league in the same neighbourhood as NHL-leading Colorado (plus-37). Nobody else is even plus-15 at five-on-five.
• With three more tucks on the weekend, Morgan Geekie is keeping the idea alive that he could join Jonathan Cheechoo in the conversation for most unlikely Rocket Richard Trophy winners ever. Right now, the Boston winger is tied with Nathan MacKinnon for the league lead at 20 goals and the 15 even-strength goals potted by Geekie tops all snipers.
However the Richard race shakes out, Geekie has the inside track on the Cy Young Award with a 20-6 (goals-assists) line right now.
• Big hockey hugs to Clayton Keller and his entire family after Keller’s dad, Bryan Keller, passed away in his sleep on Thanksgiving Day in the United States late last week. And a huge stick tap to the St. Louis Blues for their tribute to Keller’s dad on Saturday while the St. Louis native was in town to play the team he grew up watching.
Red-and-white power rankings
1. Montreal Canadiens (13-8-3): The Canadiens may have been hammered 7-2 by the Colorado Avalanche (wearing Quebec Nordiques colours) on Saturday afternoon, but a victory Friday afternoon in Vegas ensured a four-point road trip through Utah, Nevada and Colorado. That’s a win for the Habs.
2. Winnipeg Jets (13-11-0): Seeing Nino Niederreiter (two goals, one into an empty net) and Cole Perfetti (one goal) hit the game sheet during Saturday’s 5-2 victory in Nashville was huge for a Jets team that’s been so, so reliant on the top unit of Mark Scheifele, Gabe Vilardi and Kyle Connor.
3. Ottawa Senators (12-9-4): Ottawa had three wins through four outings to start a gruesome seven-game roadie in late November. But after losing 4-3 to St. Louis on Friday and 6-1 at the hands of the Stars in Texas Sunday night, the Sens suddenly need to close out this voyage with a win in Montreal on Tuesday to restore some good vibes.
4. Toronto Maple Leafs (11-11-3): You can talk about trades all you want, but nothing pulls a team out of a funk/makes the coach look smart/raises your floor like quality goaltending. Since Joseph Woll debuted on Nov. 15, the Leafs have a .916 team save percentage, a number bested by only five clubs in the NHL.
5. Edmonton Oilers (11-10-5): How about a nice 1-1-2 return for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins during a — can we call it critical? — 4-0 road victory over the Seattle Kraken on Saturday. RNH had been out of the lineup since Nov. 8.
6. Calgary Flames (9-14-4): Devin Cooley has been awesome for Calgary this season, so it was tough to see the 28-year-old stopper lose a bid for his first NHL whitewash on Sunday night when Carolina downed the Flames 1-0 in overtime after 62:39 of shutout hockey from Cooley. Still, how about Cooley’s league-best .930 (!) SP in 10 outings this year.
7. Vancouver Canucks (10-13-3): We’re less than three weeks away from the NHL’s holiday roster freeze and no team is being watched closer than Vancouver.
The week ahead
• The Eastern Conference’s two wild-card teams both reside in Pennsylvania and we’ll get a Keystone State battle Monday night when Sidney Crosby and Co. visit Philly. After three more tallies on the weekend, Crosby is on pace for 55 goals in his age-38 season. The only players in NHL history to score 50 goals at age 35 or older are Johnny Bucyk (51) when he was 35 in 1970-71 and Alex Ovechkin (50) when he was 36 in 2021-22.
Also Monday, Josh Norris — who was injured in Buffalo’s first game of the season — will return to the Sabres lineup when they host the Jets.
Finally, rugged Devils D-man Brenden Dillon is slated to play his 1,000th NHL contest on Monday when Jersey hosts the Columbus Blue Jackets.
• The Leafs are in Sunrise to face the Florida team that bounced them in the second round last year for the first time this season. You have to think a victory for Toronto — after a big 7-2 W in Pittsburgh on Saturday — would go a long way toward helping the Buds exhale a little bit.
• Brock Nelson and the Avalanche will be on Long Island Thursday night to face the Isles team Nelson skated with for nearly 13 full seasons. The Colorado centre bagged a pair of goals versus Montreal on Saturday and has 11 points in his past nine outings.
• Saturday night is marked by a couple of big all-Canadian matchups, with the Habs in Toronto to visit the Leafs before the Oilers and Jets — two teams that also need all the points they can get right now — clash in Northern Alberta.
