The Los Angeles Rams, less than 11 months after a franchise-altering acquisition of Matt Stafford, are one win away from capping off a season worthy of a Hollywood screenplay.
Meanwhile, the Cinderella Cincinnati Bengals plan on shocking the football world one last time to conclude one of the more improbable championship runs in NFL history.
With the big game Sunday, here’s a closer look at how these clubs compare in four key statistical areas, to see who might have the edge in Super Bowl LVI.
WHO HAS THE EDGE IN THE PASSING GAME?
MATTHEW STAFFORD’S 2021 STATS: (regular season | playoffs)
Record: 12-5 | 3-0
Yards: 4,886 (287.4 YPG) | 905 (313.7 YPG)
Completions: 404/601 (67.2%) | 72/100 (72.0%)
Touchdowns: 41 | 6
Interceptions: 17 (most in NFL) | 1
Times sacked: 30 | 5
QB rating: 102.9 | 115.6
Stafford’s top regular-season targets
Cooper Kupp: 145 receptions on 191 targets, 1,947 yards, 16 TDs (17 games)
Van Jefferson: 50 receptions on 89 targets, 802 yards, 6 TDs (17 games)
Tyler Higbee: 61 receptions on 85 targets, 560 yards, 5 TDs (15 games)
Stafford’s top post-season targets
Cooper Kupp: 25/32, 386 yards, 4 TDs
Odell Beckham Jr.: 19/23, 236 yards, 1 TD
Tyler Higbee: 9/14, 115 yards, 0 TD
To the surprise of absolutely no one, Matthew Stafford’s journey west to Los Angeles was the best thing that could’ve happened to both the quarterback and his new team. With Sean McVay and the Rams, Stafford ranked third league-wide in passing yards and second in touchdown throws.
But the big question that accompanied the Stafford-McVay union wasn’t about whether the duo could rack up yardage and regular-season wins. The question, particularly around Stafford, was whether the longtime Lion would be able to win in tight in the playoffs – and the answer, as we learned with his late-game connection with Cooper Kupp in Tampa and again in a close one against the 49ers a week later, is a resounding yes.
While Kupp is the overwhelming favourite of Stafford’s weapons, the field behind him has been a bit of a rotation thanks to injuries and new acquisitions. Wide receiver Robert Woods tallied 45 catches on 69 targets for 556 yards and four touchdowns in nine games before going down with a season-ending injury. That ranks him as Stafford’s fourth-most targeted receiver. Odell Beckham Jr.’s arrival couldn’t have come at a better time – he tallied 27 catches on 48 targets for 305 yards and five TDs in eight regular season games upon arrival, and has been sharp in the playoffs. (ES)
JOE BURROW’S 2021 STATS: (regular season | playoffs)
Record: 10-6 | 3-0
Yards: 4,611 (288.2 YPG) | 842 (280.7 YPG)
Completions: 366/520 (70.4%) | 75/109 (68.8%)
Touchdowns: 34 | 4
Interceptions: 14 | 2
Times sacked: 51 | 12
QB Rating: 108.3 | 96.2
Burrow’s top regular-season targets
Ja’Marr Chase: 81 receptions on 128 targets, 1,455 yards, 13 TDs
Tee Higgins: 74 receptions on 110 targets, 1,091 yards, 6 TDs
Tyler Boyd: 67 receptions on 94 targets, 828 yards, 5 TDs
Burrow’s top post-season targets
Ja’Marr Chase: 20/27, 279 yards, 1 TD
Tee Higgins: 14/23, 209 yards, 0 TDs
C.J. Uzomah: 13/16, 135 yards, 1 TD
Burrow had the league’s best completion percentage and led the NFL in yards per attempt during his excellent sophomore season. He was also sacked more than any other QB this year, which will be an obvious area the Rams will look to exploit on Sunday.
We’ve known for a while the 2020 first-overall pick possesses the clutch gene. He’s just two seasons removed from a national college title with LSU in which he outduelled Trevor Lawrence in the championship game, throwing for 463 yards, five TDs and adding another 58 yards and one rushing score. Burrow’s top target that game? Just his ol’ pal Ja’Marr, who finished that game with 221 yards and a pair of tuddies on nine catches.
Chase, the league’s offensive rookie of the year, is the biggest threat to stretch the field, but without Higgins’s 13 catches for 199 yards over the past two games, the Bengals would already be on the golf course. Tight end C.J. Uzomah (13 catches, 135 yards and a TD in the first two playoff games) has also been clutch for Burrow, but a knee injury has his status in doubt. (MJ)
WHO HAS THE EDGE IN THE RUSHING GAME?
RAMS’ 2021 STATS: (regular season | playoffs)
Yards: 1,683 (99 YPG) | 283 (94.3 YPG)
Carries: 420 (4.0 YPC) | 97 (2.9 YPC)
Touchdowns: 10 | 2
Rams’ regular season RB1: Sony Michel (208 carries, 845 yards, 4 TDs, 1 FUM)
Rams’ post-season RB1: Cam Akers (54 carries, 151 yards, 0 TDs, 2 FUMs)
The 2021 season has been a tale of two running backs for the Rams. After Cam Akers tore his Achilles in the summer, the club rushed to acquire Sony Michel from New England.
Akers’ story of his triumphant return, however, almost ended in tragedy – twice! – in Tampa when he turned over the ball on a pair of fumbles. He earned back the team’s trust a week later, but with more injury troubles affecting his practices (shoulder, this time), it’s hard to know how heavily the Rams will lean on him.
Considering Michel’s regular-season efforts and Akers’ post-season comeback, it would feel only appropriate to see a tandem approach this Sunday … (ES)
BENGALS’ 2021 STATS: (regular season | playoffs)
Yards: 1,742 (102.5 YPG) | 264 (88.0 YPG)
Carries: 436 (4.0 YPC) | 264 (3.8 YPC)
Touchdowns: 16 | 1
Bengals’ regular-season RB1: Joe Mixon (292 carries, 1,205 yards, 13 TDs, 2 FUM)
Bengals’ post-season RB1: Joe Mixon (52 carries, 190 yards, 1 TD, 0 FUM)
Mixon is coming off a career year and his first Pro Bowl selection and, depending on game script, should see a heavy-yet-less-predictable workload at SoFi.
The Bengals were terribly repetitive with their play-calling against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. They ran the ball with Mixon on first downs a whopping 18 times and they were short gains save for one first-quarter 23-yard burst. Mixon had only three carries not on first downs. A bit more variety couldn’t hurt.
Much will be made about how heavily the Rams D-line outmatches the Bengals O-line on paper, and the fact they jammed the Bucs and 49ers up on the ground will relative ease. Good news for the Bengals: They were outmatched on paper in the trenches most weeks, anyway, and right guard Jackson Carman is the only lineman on the injury report. (MJ)
WHO HAS THE EDGE ON DEFENCE?
RAMS’ 2021 STATS: (regular season | playoffs)
Passing yards allowed per game: 241.7 (22nd) | 220.7
Rushing yards allowed per game: 103.2 (6th) | 54.0
Points allowed per game: 21.9 (15th) | 18.3
Total turnovers: 25 (10th) | 5
Interceptions: 19 (5th) | 4
Sacks: 50 (3rd) | 5
Rams’ regular season defensive leaders
Tackles: S Jordan Fuller (113)
Sacks: DT Aaron Donald (12.5)
INTs: CB Jalen Ramsey & S Taylor Rapp (4)
Rams’ post-season defensive leaders
Tackles: DT A’Shawn Robinson & CB Darious Williams (16)
Sacks: LB Von Miller (2)
INTs: LB Travin Howard, CB David Long Jr. & S Nick Scott (1)
The Los Angeles’ fearsome front line, led by the basically unblockable Aaron Donald, has been pretty dominant all season – and that was even before they went and picked up Von Miller. Now? It just feels downright unfair that one team should boast that must pass-rush talent.
Exploiting Burrow’s porous offensive line will be a top priority with every snap, but as we’ve seen in these playoffs, that alone cannot necessarily stop Burrow from working his magic. Can the Rams contain the great Chase? L.A. ranked in the bottom third of the league in passing yards allowed and Cincinnati’s strong receiving corps could prove problematic. (ES)
BENGALS’ 2021 STATS: (regular season (NFL rank) | playoffs)
Passing yards allowed per game: 248.4 (26th) | 243.7
Rushing yards allowed per game: 102.5 (5th) | 127.3
Points allowed per game: 22.1 (17th) | 19.7
Total turnovers: 21 (17th) | 7
Interceptions: 13 (17th) | 6
Sacks: 42 (12th) | 8
Bengals’ regular-season defensive leaders
Tackles: LB Logan Wilson (100)
Sacks: DE Trey Hendrickson (14.0)
INTs: LB Logan Wilson (4)
Bengals’ post-season defensive leaders
Tackles: LB Logan Wilson (30)
Sacks: DE Sam Hubbard (3.0)
INTs: LB Logan Wilson, S Vonn Bell, S Jessie Bates III, CB Mike Hilton, DT B.J. Hill & LB Germaine Pratt (1)
The Bengals blitzed on just 20.5 per cent of opposing QB dropbacks, which was seventh fewest among all 32 teams during the regular season. Despite seldom blitzing, Cincy’s defence still managed 170 QB pressures, which tied for seventh most in the NFL. Since most of Stafford’s interceptions and turnover-worthy plays this season occurred when teams didn’t blitz him, this could work out in Cincinnati’s favour.
The Bengals already have six interceptions in the playoffs, but before shutting down the passing game, they must contain the diverse Rams backfield. With 147 of Stafford’s 601 pass attempts coming on play-action or RPOs, mixing in successful rushes is a must for L.A. and Cincy is aware of that. Stafford threw a league-leading 17 INTs this season, so the Bengals will be ready to pounce (tiger pun!) on any misthrows. (MJ)
WHO HAS THE EDGE ON SPECIAL TEAMS?
MATT GAY’S 2021 STATS: (regular season | playoffs)
FGs made/attempted: 32/34 (94.1%) | 7/9 (77.8%)
Longest FG made: 55 yards | 46 yards
XPs made/attempted: 48/49 (98.0%) | 9/9 (100%)
JOHNNY HEKKER’S 2021 STATS: (regular season | playoffs)
Punts: 51 | 10
Yards per punt: 44.2 | 45.1
Longest punt: 59 yards | 58 yards
Through the regular season, Gay was the league’s most reliable field goal kicker not named Justin Tucker. He’s not blowing anyone away with crazy-long kicks a la Tucker and Sunday’s opponent in McPherson – he was most often used in 30- to 39-yard scenarios, when he completed 15 of 15 tries in 2021.
In the playoffs, Gay attempted just one field goal from 50-plus yards away, and missed – compared to McPherson’s playoff heroics, it’s not hard to see where the momentum lies here. (ES)
EVAN McPHERSON’S 2021 STATS: (regular season | playoffs)
FGs made/attempted: 28/33 (84.8%) | 12/12 (100.0%)
Longest FG made: 58 yards | 54 yards
XPs made/attempted: 46/48 (95.8%) | 4/4 (100.0%)
KEVIN HUBER 2021 STATS: (regular season | playoffs)
Punts: 66 | 10
Yards per punt: 46.4 | 41.4
Longest punt: 61 yards | 57 yards
Huber is one of only three players on the Bengals roster who was alive the last time the franchise made a Super Bowl appearance, when they lost 20-16 to the 49ers in 1989. He also happens to be a Cincinnati native. Can the 36-year-old do his part and help his hometown team win its first championship?
Although sticking timely coffin corner punts can contribute to victories, the field-goal battle will presumably play a bigger role in the game. Bengals placekicker Evan McPherson has been a revelation this season. He’s not in Justin Tucker territory quite yet, but the 22-year-old is well on his way to reaching that level of kicker prestige.
McPherson hasn’t missed a field goal or extra point since Week 13, and the 2022 playoffs are shaping up to be an enthralling origins story for “KickPherson.” (MJ)
