Anyone who put down a futures bet on the Cincinnati Bengals ahead of the 2021 NFL season is sitting pretty and could be in for a massive payday if the team upsets the Los Angeles Rams at Super Bowl LVI.
The Bengals had anywhere from 80-1 to 150-1 pre-season Super Bowl odds whereas the Rams were in the 12-1 range and among the handful of NFC teams expected to contend for a championship.
There are plenty of different metrics to consider when deciding who to bet on Sunday.
Do you follow facts like teams wearing white have won 14 of the past 17 Super Bowls? The Rams will wear white and the Bengals black by the way. Or that the past seven coin-toss winners have lost the game? Perhaps looking to the fact that the Bengals are 13-7 against the spread this season (regular- and post-season) is more compelling? The Bengals won seven of their 11 games straight up when they were the underdogs this year and the Rams went just 10-10 ATS, 7-10 when they were the favoured.
Depending on the day, hour and sportsbook, the line as fluctuated this week anywhere from Rams -3.5 to Rams -4.5, while the total has kept steady at 48.5 after opening at 47.5 points.
There’s no shortage of things to bet on when it comes to the Super Bowl, so in honour of the big game we’ve put together a panel of Sportsnet’s NFL contributors to make their official predictions.
Staff writer/host Donnovan Bennett, staff writers Emily Sadler and Mike Johnston, plus fantasy writers Andy McNamara, Matt Marchese and Shoaib Alli will make their picks against the spread, choose over or under, predict the final score, MVP and list their favourite prop bets.
Donnovan Bennett, staff writer/host
SPREAD: Rams -4.5
TOTAL: Under 48.5
FINAL SCORE: Rams 27, Bengals 21
COIN TOSS: Tails never fails unless you’re calling it against the Chiefs
MVP: Von Miller
FAVOURITE PROP BETS: Gatorade colour Orange (+325), National anthem OVER 106 seconds (-120)
The Bengals are 30th in pass block win rate. The Rams are first in pass rush win rate. Ball game. Joe Borrow can’t be the next Joe Montana when he’s lying on his back. Borrow has been sacked 12 times this post-season, tied for fourth most of all-time and there is still four quarters to go against two future Hall of Fame pass rushers. The Rams are pressuring QBs on 32 per cent of drop backs this post-season. Expect that number to go up Sunday.
The last player to win MVP as a defensive player was Miller. Six years apart and playing for a different team, Miller is poised to do it again. The right side of the Bengals offensive line is among the worst in football. Miller lines up on the left and won’t be double teamed with Aaron Donald right beside him. The five other players who have won multiple Super Bowl MVPs were QBs but in the era of the QB, Von Miller will win MVP by sacking the QB and wrecking the game.
Emily Sadler, staff writer
SPREAD: Bengals +4.5
TOTAL: Over 48.5
FINAL SCORE: Rams 31, Bengals 27
COIN TOSS: Tails!
MVP: Matthew Stafford
FAVOURITE PROP BET: Aaron Donald OVER 1.0 sacks (-125)
I’ve learned several times over the course of this season not to bet against the Bengals… and, well, *technically* I’m not. Sort of. Whatever. While I’m still going with the Rams to hoist the trophy, I’m not so confident as to think the Bengals won’t cover. There will be a strong case to be made for a Cooper Kupp MVP, but the storyline is all about Stafford finally winning the big one, and I think the votes come in accordingly.
As for my prop bet, I’m staying steady with the somewhat boring pick here. As much as I love me some blue Gatorade, I can’t look past the obvious. Considering the state of the Bengals’ offensive line – and the state of Aaron Donald – I’m not exactly going out on a limb here by betting the Rams stars takes down Burrow more than once.
Mike Johnston, staff writer
SPREAD: Bengals +4.5
TOTAL: Under 48.5
FINAL SCORE: Bengals 24, Rams 23
COIN TOSS: Tails. Never. Fails. *Stone Cold Steve Austin’s music plays* Heads! Bah Gawd! It’s heads this year!
MVP: Joe Burrow
FAVOURITE PROP BET: Will any player propose to his girlfriend on the field after the game? (Yes +400) Super Bowl win mere hours before Valentine’s Day? C’mon.
My Superb Owl pick this year is the adult red morph Eastern Screech-Owl. It looks like it’s permanently wearing a Bengals jersey. Wait, you thought I’d pick the BURROWing Owl didn’t you? Ha! Don’t be so simpleminded, people.
My Super Bowl pick is the Bengals. I think the offence can scheme their way around the Rams’ d-line pressure and the defence can capitalize on one or two Stafford misthrows. It just happens to be the Year of the Tiger so Cincy also has the lunar calendar on their side.
Andy McNamara, analyst/fantasy sports writer
SPREAD: Bengals +4.5
TOTAL: Over 48.5
FINAL SCORE: Bengals 30, Rams 27
COIN TOSS: Heads
MVP: Joe Burrow
FAVOURITE PROP BET: Ja’Marr Chase MORE receiving yards than Cooper Kupp (+177)
Cooper Kupp’s 13 games (including playoffs) of over 100 receiving yards is the reason he’s the heavy favourite at -286 to win this head-to-head prop bet against Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals rookie produced 100-plus yards on seven occasions, two of which went for more than 200 yards. Both stars are incredible talents who can rack up boatloads of statistics at any time. That’s why the odds on Chase to gain more yardage than Kupp makes so much sense. It’s not a sure bet but is a situation that could easily occur. Especially if the Bengals get down early and are forced to the air more than their already impressive aerial attack plan calls for.
Matt Marchese, radio host/producer/fantasy football writer
SPREAD: Bengals +4.5
TOTAL: Under 48.5
FINAL SCORE: Bengals 27, Rams 20
COIN TOSS: Tails
MVP: Joe Burrow
FAVOURITE PROP BET: No touchback on opening kickoff (-110)
As you can already see, I really like the Bengals on the moneyline. It just feels like they are a team of destiny here. There’s a few props I like (Burrow over 11.5 rushing yards, Stafford over 0.5 interceptions) but my favourite is “No Touchback on the Opening Kickoff.” Eighteen of the last twenty kickoffs have been returned in the Super Bowl. Why you may ask? According to Pat McAfee, the ball used on the opening kickoff is brand new and kickers have a hard time getting a ton of power behind it because it’s not worked in like other footballs. The Super Bowl gets weird, so why not bet on this?
Shoaib Alli, radio producer/fantasy football writer
SPREAD: Rams -4.5
TOTAL: Over 48.5
FINAL SCORE: Rams 35, Bengals 27
COIN TOSS: Tails
MVP: Matthew Stafford
FAVOURITE PROP BET: Leonard Floyd Total Sacks OVER 0.5 (+120)
After spending over a decade in football purgatory (sorry, Lions fans), Matthew Stafford has largely taken back control of his career narrative. In one post-season alone, he has evened his playoff record from 0-3 to 3-3, and a SoFi win on Sunday could seriously improve his chances of being considered for the Hall of Fame.
Stafford may be one of the few remaining quarterbacks in the NFL today who we can truly describe as a gunslinger. He’s not afraid to let it rip on any down, regardless of distance. With Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. as his main targets, a hard charging Cam Akers-led run game, and a ferocious pass rush to back him up, Stafford is ready to grab his first ring and Super Bowl MVP to put a bow on a whirlwind season.
