It’s finally here. Everybody’s favourite should-be national holiday. The reason we know how to read Roman numerals. The one day a year we get to bet on nonsense like what song Usher will play first without feeling like complete degenerates.
Sure, the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs are facing off, and we’ll get into that, but how often do I get to bet on whether or not Taylor Swift’s boyfriend will propose to her on live TV?
For me, betting on the ridiculous stuff is half the fun, but while I love getting weird, I also love being way too serious about those weird bets. So I have a method.
Not necessarily a method that works. Just … a method.
I start from how I think the game is going to go and then work backwards from there. And for the weird stuff like the length of the anthem, or whether the coin toss will be heads or tails, I follow the data.
So bear with me, as we start from the end, and work our way backward.
Editor’s Note: Gambling problems aren’t only about losing money. They occur on a continuum, and can affect a person’s whole life. To learn more about developing a healthy relationship to gambling, and to find resources for support, click here.
BETTING THE STANDARD GAME LINES
• Kansas City (+110)
• Under 47.5 total game score
• Travis Kelce Super Bowl MVP (+1200)
I believe any NFL gambler should live by one rule when it’s playoff time: Don’t bet against all-time great quarterbacks. While Brock Purdy has been a nice story, and frankly I think he’s better than the game manager moniker he’s been saddled with, you’ll never catch me betting against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. I’d rather bet on Mahomes and lose, than bet against him and feel like an idiot. I’ve got Kansas City winning outright, and at +2 against the spread, you might as well take the money line. DraftKings has KC at even odds, and Bet365 has them at +110.
All right, now we have our result, we can work backwards from there. If the Chiefs win, Patrick Mahomes (+125) is the obvious MVP pick. Those odds are boring, and I think Travis Kelce needs to have a big game for his team to win, so I threw a little action on Kelce (+1200) to win MVP.
I liked this line a lot more when it opened somewhere in the 50.5 range, but I’m going with the UNDER 47.5 game score. Sounds crazy with all the weapons San Francisco has, and the history Mahomes has, but stay with me. The Chiefs and Niners have played five combined playoff games this season. Only two of them went over that number, and neither team has faced a defence as good as they’ll see Sunday. Add to the fact the Niners have scored 14 total first-half points, and KC has scored just 24 in the second half, and I think this will be a low-scoring game with some very weird pacing.
TIME TO GET WEIRD
• Coin toss outcome: Tails (+100)
• Jersey number of first TD scorer: OVER 22.5 (-115)
• National anthem: OVER 90.5 seconds
• Usher to open Halftime Show with “Yeah” (+650)
• Anytime TD: Kyle Juszczyk (+750)
• Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift: No (-3200)
Did you know the opening coin toss has come up tails in seven of the last 10 Super Bowls? You might look at that and think, “Heads is due!” Maybe. Or maybe the NFL uses commemorative coins for the coin toss, and the heads side is heavier, making what you’d think is a 50/50 bet not so. It’s a reality proven by ample data in real coins, resulting in a 51/49 split in favour of tails. With NFL coin tosses? It’s close to 53/47. Give me TAILS (even odds, obviously).
I love the jersey number of the first TD scorer bet. It’s fun to think about. Ask yourself: Which side of the line gives me the most star power? This year, I think that the answer is simple. OVER 22.5 gives me Kelce, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. That’s two of the top three most targeted pass catchers in the game and the best running back in football. Beyond that, I get all three of McCaffrey’s backfield mates (Eli Mitchell, Jordan Mason and Juszczyk) and KC backup tight end Noah Grey.
I checked every anthem going back to 2012 and no one came in under 90 seconds. Kelly Clarkson (1:34) came closest. I’m going with OVER 90.5 seconds (-120), but Reba McEntire has sung the anthem before at other events and has come in under that number several times.
I have no rationale behind Usher to open the Halftime Show with “Yeah (+650) beyond the fact that the Atlanta crooner doesn’t have a ton of high-energy songs, and “Yeah” is by far his biggest hit.
The books have made betting on any of the more likely TD scorers a little boring, so the only anytime TD pick I like is Juszczyk (+750). Did I have to Google his name every time I typed it here? Yes. But San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan loves using him all over the field. He’ll line up as a tight end, he’ll line up in the backfield, he might even catch a screen pass.
And finally, the Kelce-Swift of it all. Look, there are a million silly props you can find if you look hard enough. How many times will we see Taylor Swift on the broadcast: give me OVER 5.5.
My favourite has been the proposal bet. To me, no matter the line a bet on NO (-3200) is free money, it’s just a matter of whether or not you’re willing to wager enough to make it worth your while.
I just don’t see one of the world’s most powerful women letting her boyfriend (of seven months, no less) put her on the spot in such a public manner. I’ve never met a woman in my life who would want that, and there isn’t a woman in the world in more control of her own life than Swift.
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
