TORONTO – Technically speaking, baseball’s off-season started a month ago. And sure, we’ve seen a handful of pitchers sign short-term deals since then, so there’s been some movement in free agency. Behind the scenes, teams and agents have been busy, too.
But for all intents and purposes, the off-season hasn’t really begun yet. Starting Wednesday, that could change. Teams have until 8 p.m. ET to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players and those who are not tendered contracts (the aptly named non-tenders) will become free agents eligible to sign with any team.
In recent weeks, team executives and agents have been anticipating a busy deadline with more players than usual expected to hit the open market at a time that many teams appear to be spending less on payroll. It’s telling that the likes of Kris Bryant and Gary Sanchez are even mentioned as non-tender candidates, and while those two seem likely to receive contract offers, the likes of Matthew Boyd, Tommy Pham and Carlos Rodon may still be cut loose.
Adding to the uncertainty, there’s no real way to know how the arbitration process will play out after a historically short 60-game season. Even people with years and years of experience in the field are unsure how arbitrators will compensate players, and the three-pronged projections at MLB Trade Rumors reflect the wider-than-usual range of possible outcomes.
Determining the precise value of those salaries will be a challenge for the new year, though. For now, all teams have to do is determine which players will get as far as arbitration, and as ever some decisions are easier than others. For the Blue Jays, a relatively small class of just four players is eligible (MLBTR’s three estimates are included below):
•Travis Shaw – $4.2 million / $5.4 million / $4.5 million
•Teoscar Hernandez – $2.7 million / $5.3 million / $2.7 million
•Ross Stripling – $2.5 million / $3.7 million / $2.7 million
•A.J. Cole – $800,000 / $1.1 million / $800,000
In Hernandez, the Blue Jays have a breakout star who’s a lock to be tendered a contract. The more interesting question with the 28-year-old is whether extension talks could follow over the course of the coming months.
The results weren’t there for Stripling either before or after the trade that sent him from the eventual World Series winners in Los Angeles to Toronto. But the Blue Jays’ front office acquired the right-hander partly because he’s a long-term piece, and Stripling’s track record (career 3.77 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9) is far better than what he showed in 2020. At 31, he should be in his prime and his average fastball velocity actually ticked up to 91.7 m.p.h. this year. It’d be a real surprise if he’s not tendered a contract.
Considering the need for arms in the bullpen and the affordable salary Cole projects to earn in 2021, he will likely be tendered a contract, too.
That leaves Shaw, who twice hit 30 home runs in Milwaukee before a rough 2019 season led to the first non-tender of his career a year ago this week. After a solid but unspectacular season in which the 30-year-old hit six home runs with a .717 OPS and serviceable defence in 50 games, there’s a good chance he’s non-tendered once again.
Regardless of which path the Blue Jays take, they’re expecting to add multiple players to the 40-man roster this winter. Since that roster is now full, each addition will require a corresponding move. If nothing else, removing Shaw Wednesday would free up the first of those spaces.
Make no mistake, the Blue Jays are very much in the market for infielders, it’s just that they appear to be aiming higher than Shaw at this point. The Yankees have long been considered the frontrunner for DJ LeMahieu with the Mets reportedly next in line, but the Blue Jays appear to have legitimate interest, too.
Even if LeMahieu lands with one of the New York teams, the Blue Jays could still bid on a pool of infielders including Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Didi Gregorius, Justin Turner, Kolten Wong, Enrique Hernandez and the soon-to-be-posted Ha-Seong Kim. Though he’s certainly on the Blue Jays’ radar, Wong’s not necessarily ahead of others on this list, according to one plugged-in industry person. And while Simmons could eventually be a fit in Toronto, there are clear indications that other clubs have courted him more intently early on.
Either way, there are a lot of options out there now, with more sure to join them once this year’s tender decisions become official. That will give teams like the Blue Jays even more choices starting Wednesday night.
