Some years the NHL has a team that runs away with the standings and takes on the title of “The Team To Beat”. Other years, maybe two carry a pluralized version of that mantle. But this season the Presidents’ Trophy is going to be won by either Washington or Winnipeg — two legitimately great teams who’ve had special years — but they feel closer to the chase pack than some league leaders of yore.
I’ve got 11 teams that have a legitimate shot at this year’s Cup, which is flatly absurd. I’d even be willing to stretch that to maybe 13 if a fanbase were passionate enough and felt like yelling about it.
Since you’re curious, that fairly large group includes:
If you feel like you’d include another team or two, you’re further proving my point. It’s anyone’s ballgame.
What’s noteworthy, though, is that I’ve got New Jersey in brackets because of injuries. Very few teams could survive losing their number one centre (Jack Hughes) and number one defenceman (Dougie Hamilton) and then run through the playoffs start to finish.
And so, it feels like this is going to be the year of the injury, not just for New Jersey, but for everybody. Or, to phrase it in a far more optimistic light: the year of the healthy team. It’s tough to make predictions when it doesn’t seem like we’re able to forecast who is and who isn’t healthy on the exact days the games are played.
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It was on Feb. 20 when Mark Stone suffered a back-related injury that put him on the sidelines shortly before the 2023 NHL trade deadline. That year, his injury allowed Vegas to move his cap hit to LTIR, and with that newfound cap space they added Ivan Barbashev. Stone was then okayed to skate in April, cleared from LTIR on April 18 – after the salary cap went away for the playoffs – and Vegas went on to win the Stanley Cup.
Barbashev had 18 points in 22 playoff games for the Golden Knights, just a handful behind Stone himself.
Two years before that, Nikita Kucherov missed all of the NHL’s shortened 2021 season and recovered just in time for Game 1 of the playoffs — allowing the Lightning to spend his LTIR’d cap space along the way — en route to winning the Stanley Cup. He finished second in Conn Smythe voting, leading the playoffs in scoring by a whopping nine points, which led to Dougie Hamilton’s light-hearted comments that his Hurricanes lost to a Lightning team that was “$18 million over the salary cap.”
That comment led to this shirt that Kucherov debuted around the time of their second Stanley Cup parade.
It’s not that Kucherov or Stone weren’t injured, it’s that we didn’t know when they would’ve returned if it wasn’t salary cap related, and we’re all fairly sure their clearance dates wouldn’t have been “exactly Game 1 of the playoffs.” But what’s just as relevant as the cap shenanigans is that those teams got back tremendous players at the right time, suddenly healthy and rested, who were able to launch their teams through the type of series that often come down to a single goal or single play at a single moment.
You know, the times you want your best guys to be out there, and at their best.
So these two things — that it’s anyone’s year, and that the timing of getting healthy is going to be so key — had me wondering: is there a team it could all come together for, health wise, at the perfect time? A team that could go from being just “good” to “fully loaded” just as it comes time to put all your cards on the table?
Well, enter the Edmonton Oilers.
Currently, the Oilers are without Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. And while you never want your best players to be injured, it’s not a terrible time to be getting a little extra rest provided these injuries can be healed up in time for the playoffs. It sounds like Draisaitl will be back soon after a little time off, and McDavid will be having a longer absence, presumably erring on the side of caution, and they’ll get him back in advance of the post-season.
But for a team that’s struggled with depth scoring and toughness at times, the Oilers also made a major acquisition this season in Trent Frederic, who’s poised to return and should be available in Round 1. We’re talking about a 6-foot-3, 220-pounder who over the past few seasons has scored every handful of games and likes to fight. I imagine they’ll be excited to get him involved.
Further to that is Evander Kane, who will have missed the entire season and may be ready to go just in time for the playoffs. Kane has a track record as an excellent playoff performer, he’s tough as nails, heavy, and can score goals, too.
You don’t know what you’re going to get from recently injured players in their return, but we’re forecasting the dream scenarios here. If these players come back and get well, there are teams we’d move from a group of “those who can” to a small group of “those who probably should.”
We just watched the Oilers have a game where there was very little pushback to their goalie getting run multiple times, and everyone has collectively ruled that a problem. But add Kane and Frederic, and suddenly that part of the game is a much smaller concern. They went to Game 7 of the Cup Final last year, and haven’t looked as good as that team for much of this season. But with a healthy D-corps and that forward group, Edmonton may look like a team that could be a game better than last year.
Some other thoughts:
• Dallas could get Tyler Seguin back, which would add a valued layer of scoring depth to their already dynamic team. Even more importantly is that if they could eke out a round one win, it’s possible they could get Miro Heiskanen back. The prospect of a suddenly fully healthy Dallas roster, with a by-then-more-comfortable Mikko Rantanen, and I’m not sure there’d be a better roster out there in the NHL, including the Oilers.
• So…Gabriel Landeskog? Could that really be a thing? All we’re going off are video clips of him skating his butt off with the team these days, and they’d presumably have to wait until after the season to activate him for cap purposes. But if Colorado could add him, and he starts to find his form as the playoffs went along, wouldn’t that change the look of their core?
• The Florida Panthers are getting Brad Marchand into the lineup, which will help. But imagine their roster with not just Marchand, but also with Matthew Tkachuk, who could show up in the first round. They’d go from a little thin up front to having tough decisions to make on who to scratch. By Game 3 they’ll get suspended Aaron Ekblad back too, and might suddenly they’d look as formidable as last year.
• The Toronto Maple Leafs aren’t missing any massive names on this front, but it’s worth noting this: Auston Matthews seems to be slowly getting back to healthy, or at least feeling better, and him at max capacity changes things. They’ve been down a star most of this year. When they’ve had all of Matthews, Chris Tanev, and Jake McCabe in the lineup this season – which has only been for about 41 games by my count – Toronto is 26-13-2, which is a pace that far outstrips their injury-riddled season. Combine that with getting Max Pacioretty back, which Craig Berube believes to be possible, and their forward core will look deeper and more physical. Hell, they may even get Jani Hakanpaa back for a seventh defenceman, if they get a miracle.
What’s crazy about all this is, just as exciting as the prospect of getting some of these teams back to full health is, there are still 8-12 games to go for most teams, and the fear of losing a body is equivalent to the excitement of gaining one.
The big advantage for teams like Washington and Winnipeg should be their ability to rest players and skip some of that fear, or at least not over-extend their best players in the games they do dress. They’ve earned that advantage, and would be wise to use it.
When the Stanley Cup is anybody’s to win, luck is going to be a big factor, both in terms of bounces and health. That’s the case every year, but with such a large group of contenders, luck is bound to have a greater influence in 2025.
