The list of MLB free-agent pitchers this off-season is much stronger than that of the positional core. There are a few aces available in addition to a range of starters who can occupy the No. 2 or 3 role in a rotation and eat innings.
Front offices across the league have been hard at work prepping their own lists, and to give you an idea of what the free-agent landscape looks like, here is Sportsnet’s ranking of the top 10 pitchers available.
(In case you missed it, you can check out the position player list here.)
1) Blake Snell
Age: 30
Position: Starting pitcher
2023 WAR (per FanGraphs): 4.1
How’s this for a walk season? Snell led MLB with a 2.25 ERA and tossed a career-high 32 starts — one more than he logged during his Cy Young campaign in 2018. After some unevenness on the mound, it’s looking like the left-hander may have re-established himself as a topflight starter. As such, he sits at the head of these rankings and is likely in line for a big payday after presumably capturing another Cy Young when the winner is announced in the coming days. What was perhaps most impressive from Snell during the 2023 campaign, though, is how it unfolded — he posted a 5.43 ERA over his first five starts and looked frankly mediocre before turning a page and sporting a sparkling 1.78 ERA over 27 starts the rest of the way.
2) Aaron Nola
Age: 30
Position: Starting pitcher
2023 fWAR: 3.9
Nola is a workhorse starter whose been the picture of durability for years now. Consider this: Since 2017, only one pitcher has logged more innings than Nola’s 1,233.1 — that would be ace right-hander Gerrit Cole, whose tossed 1,279.2. Cole’s fWAR over that span is 31.8, just a shade above Nola’s 30. Now, Nola did struggle at times in 2023, particularly evidenced by his 4.46 ERA. However, it’s worth highlighting that the right-hander showed when it mattered most, dominating in three of his four post-season starts for the Phillies.
3) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (if posted)
Age: 25
Position: Starting pitcher
2023 fWAR: N/A (played in Japan)
Yamamoto could become the newest Japanese star to join MLB if he’s posted by his club, the Orix Buffaloes of the Japan Pacific League. The 25-year-old right-hander would certainly arrive with a pedigree, having just captured the Eiji Sawamura Award — Japan’s equivalent of a Cy Young — for the third straight year, in addition to winning his third consecutive pitching triple crown. He’s expected to arrive in a North American rotation as an instant No. 2 and possesses a high-90s fastball with strong secondary pitches. Marwin Gonzalez, an 11-year MLB veteran and Yamamoto’s teammate this past season, offered a scouting report to The Japan Times. “People in the States are probably wondering if he’s good just because of his pitches. I would say that his command is the best thing he has,” Gonzalez said. “That’s what I think makes him different from the other guys. He not only has quality pitches, he commands them the way he wants … It’s hard to see a high-quality pitch, and if it’s painted, it’s extra hard to hit. Even if he throws it in the middle it’s hard to hit, but if he paints the corners, it’s even harder.”
4) Shohei Ohtani (not pitching in 2024, but expected back on the mound for 2025 and beyond)
Age: 29
Position: Designated hitter and starting pitcher
2023 fWAR: 9
The Ohtani free agency is incredibly intriguing because a team will be signing him to a potentially record-breaking deal based on the hope of what he’ll be able to do not next season, but in the years that follow. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing surgery on his right elbow in late September. However, he’ll still hit and, as we outlined in our free agent positional rankings, he can transform a team with his bat alone. He intends to return to two-way play in 2025 and beyond, and if he were to regain some level of his previous self on the mound, he’s someone who can approach 10 WAR. A consideration for teams will be just how long into the future they project Ohtani can continue both hitting and pitching.
5) Sonny Gray
Age: 33
Position: Starting pitcher
2023 fWAR: 5.3
Another walk year standout, Gray authored arguably the finest season of his 11-year career. Were it not for Cole, the right-hander might be expecting his first Cy Young. However, Gray won’t command the same type of contract as a Snell, simply because of his age (he turns 34 in November). Nonetheless, a three-year deal makes sense for a pitcher who can instantly step to the front of any rotation.
6) Jordan Montgomery
Age: 30
Position: Starting pitcher
2023 fWAR: 4.3
Montgomery has established himself as a topflight starter since being dealt by the New York Yankees in August 2022. Since that move to the Cardinals, the left-hander has posted a 3.17 ERA over 252.1 innings and 43 regular-season starts. For context, only 11 starting pitchers produced a higher fWAR than Montgomery’s 5.7 during that span. Among the pitchers behind him in that statistical category: Pablo Lopez, Luis Castillo and Corbin Burnes. The Yankees traded Montgomery in part because they didn’t think he could crack their post-season rotation. The left-hander ended up being a major contributor during the Rangers’ World Series title run, most notably holding the Astros to just two runs over 14 innings during the ALCS.
7) Eduardo Rodriguez (can opt out of current contract)
Age: 30
Position: Starting pitcher
2023 fWAR: 3.0
Should Rodriguez opt out, it would likely be a safe bet that his new contract eclipses the three years and $49 million left on his current deal with the Tigers. The veteran left-hander is coming off one of the best campaigns of his career and closely resembles the pre-COVID version of himself. While playing for the Red Sox, Rodriguez missed the entire 2020 campaign after being diagnosed with myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart linked to the coronavirus.
8) Marcus Stroman (can opt out of current contract)
Age: 32
Position: Starting pitcher
2023 fWAR: 2.7
Stroman was dominant during the first half of the 2023 campaign but only made six starts in the second half due to a cartilage fracture in his right rib. For that reason, it could make sense for the diminutive right-hander to not opt out of his remaining one-year, $21-million with the hope of producing a healthy 2024 season heading into free agency next winter.
9) Josh Hader
Age: 29
Position: Reliever
2023 fWAR: 1.7
The only reliever to crack our top 10, Hader has been among baseball’s very best bullpen arms since he broke into the league in 2017 with the Brewers. He’ll turn 30 in April and figures to become one of the highest paid closers in the sport. His 2022 season, which included a trade from the Brewers to the Padres, was rocky. However, Hader righted the ship in 2023 — his expected batting average of .156 last season ranked in the 100th percentile, while his expected ERA (2.36) was in the 99th percentile.
10) Kenta Maeda
Age: 35
Position: Starting pitcher
2023 fWAR: 1.5
Maeda missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. While he dealt with some arm issues during the 2023 campaign, he appeared to get stronger as the season progressed. After returning from an IL stint in late June, the 35-year-old posted a 3.36 ERA and 3.94 FIP over 88.1 innings the rest of the way. During that span, opponents hit just .219 against him, while producing a .680 OPS.
Honourable mentions: Craig Kimbrel, Lucas Giolito, Clayton Kershaw, Aroldis Chapman, Jordan Hicks, Lance Lynn, Tyler Mahle and Jack Flaherty.
