Sometimes I worry that my Leafs analysis can come off negative, which I admit I consciously work to avoid. I worry about it because I know what this team is when we zoom out — they’re well inside the better half of the league, they’ll make the playoffs without breaking a sweat, and they’ve got elite talent. They’re fun to watch and have as good a chance to win the Stanley Cup as any team save for a group of maybe two or three favourites.
The reason the analysis can come off negative is because of my background as a player, and later as part of a coaching staff. In those spots, you learn to leave the good things alone. The art of being on a team in any good hockey league — whether junior, college or pro — is that you’re constantly plugging holes in the dam with bubble gum. Every team gets the same amount of gum, and quickly figuring out where the holes are is an important part of finding big picture success.
It’s triage, where you’re constantly assessing and working to patch up the most pressing issues, and that came to be how I see the game.
So with that as the backdrop, let’s do some triage with the Leafs then, shall we? Below are three crucial, concerning issues for the team. What has to improve for this team to take a step? Will the Leafs’ purported “tentpoles” hold up?
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1. Morgan Rielly is a good defenceman having a tough stretch
Yesterday Sportsnet Stats put out a tweet about Rielly: over the past 10 games at 5-on-5 Rielly has been on the ice for 10 goals against and just one for. You’d no longer consider his pair the top one (that would be McCabe and Tanev), and he’s now providing negative value on his $7.5 million annual contract. They will once again be searching to find him a partner at the trade deadline, a problem many thought was eliminated once Toronto acquired Chris Tanev. And honestly, if you can’t have success with Tanev, I’m not sure who’s going to thrive there if it ain’t Prime Chris Pronger.
But there’s good news: Rielly is not a player in physical decline, to my eye. He still skates like he always has, is strong, and can make plays. I do wonder if he’s a player light on hockey motivation in mid-January on yet another good Leafs team. He’s been a part of the playoff pushes and their related frustrations, along with the sentiment “nobody cares, show us in the playoffs” from fans. He’s well removed from signing his contract, and far from it ending, so that’s no motivator. He’s gotten married and had a baby boy in the past year. It just doesn’t look like it’s “pedal to the metal” time for him.
That’s not to excuse his play, but just to say that I think — and of course hope, for the Leafs’ sake — that the best of Rielly is still there. A better version of himself could still pair well with Tanev in the playoffs, but the Leafs will need to see it in action here soon.
I’d like to see him ramp it up in the second half — starting any time now — as the first half of the year was pretty lacklustre, and the team needs to know what they’re building off at the trade deadline.
2. Auston Matthews‘ shooting is encouraging
I went through all of Auston Matthews’ goals from this season this morning, and they’ve fallen into a couple of buckets. There are a few plays where he gets lost on the back side and converts on a pass with a one-timer; there are a few where he’s at the net-front and puts his hands on display; and another couple clean off the rush. But only two of his 17 goals have come off a clean, unscreened wrist shot, and both came in the past two games against Dallas and New Jersey. He’s usually good for more of those than we’ve seen so far in 2024-25, so that’s great news for the Leafs if the shot is coming back.
One thing I did want to note is that you forget how clutch the guy has been. Here’s where people yell “in the regular season” and sure that’s fine, but if you’re a fan and you’re watching the same team year after year, having a long career with a guy like Matthews on your side is a treat not many fanbases get. If you’re optimistic, you could hope this regular season “clutch gene” starts to show up in the playoffs a little more often, as it did against Boston in Game 2 last year.
This season he scored with 1:17 on the clock against the Bruins when the Leafs were down 3-2 to tie it up in the third. Thursday he scored with 4:13 left in the game when the Leafs were down 3-2 in the third. The last time they played New Jersey, Matthews outraced Brett Pesce for a loose puck, held him off, and chipped it upstairs for the OT win.
Since Matthews came into the league in 2016-17, he’s tied for third in the NHL in game-winning goals, behind only Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. But since he’s played fewer games, I thought it would be fun to take a look at game winners per game since 2016-17 (among players who’ve scored a meaningful amount of them).
Matthews has 62 game-winners, while Draisaitl and McDavid have five more each, with 50-60 more games played. When looking at game-winners per game played, Matthews scores one about every 9.5 games:
1st: Matthews: 9.56
2nd: McDavid: 9.58
3rd: Draisaitl: 9.77
4th: Point: 9.96
5th: Pastrnak: 10.55
He’s among the league elite in this stat. Sidney Crosby is 10th over this same span while scoring 47 game-winning goals, despite the Pens having some rough years. Pretty impressive.
Some other totals of interest: Nathan MacKinnon gets a game-winner every 11.46 games he plays, and Alex Ovechkin every 13.39.
For your Leafs interest, John Tavares and William Nylander have both scored 44 game-winners over this time frame, which means Tavares gets one every 14.61 games, and Nylander every 14.25.
3. Even when Joseph Woll isn’t at his best, he’s good enough
I know the quality of Joseph Woll’s play has maybe taken a small step back from his early season form, but in his defence he started off playing like a Vezina calibre goalie. But, given the biggest question mark about his play coming into the season was “Can he play a lot and still play well,” you’d have to say things are shaking out okay. He’s holding the fort in Anthony Stolarz’s absence.
Zooming out on the season, MoneyPuck has Woll seventh in goals saved above expected (per game) among guys who’ve had 10 starts or more, which is 62 goalies. He’s tied for 10th in total goals saved despite playing fewer games than everyone above him but one guy (John Gibson). It’s been really good.
The thing I find most encouraging about Woll: when he does give up a stinker, it doesn’t mean a bad night is coming for him. He’s able to regroup, refocus, and lock it down from there, occasionally turning a bad start into a perfectly fine total performance.
The ability to throw away the bad is a skill most needed in golfers and goalies. And if the Leafs don’t want to be worried about golfing too early again this year, they’re going to need all the positive signs we’ve seen from Woll.
