It’s trilogy time as the UFC returns to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for the first time in 16 months for UFC 264.
Dustin Poirier shocked the sports world when he avenged a previous loss and became the first fighter to knock out Conor McGregor when they met in January at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The rivals are now set to run it back for a third time.
Now that Khabib Nurmagomedov is retired from active competition, Poirier is the consensus No. 1 lightweight in the sport even though he doesn’t have the belt. Poirier elected to ink a third bout with McGregor for another massive payday instead of fighting for the vacant title.
Charles Oliveira won the vacant strap in May and will face the winner of Saturday’s main event. Who that ends up being is anyone’s guess.
With his striking prowess and knockout power, McGregor can’t be counted out despite being just 1-2 since he won the lightweight title back in 2016 while Poirier is 7-1 during that same stretch.
McGregor certainly had some moments at UFC 257 but he looked slightly off. Poirier took full advantage by eating McGregor’s best shots, mixing in a takedown and beating up the lead leg.
In the lead-up to that bout McGregor was uncharacteristically polite and sportsmanlike towards his opponent. That version of McGregor has not been present this week.
“On Saturday night, you’re going to get walked around that Octagon like a dog and then put to sleep,” McGregor said to Poirier at Thursday’s press conference. “He’s going out on a stretcher in this fight.”
Another major difference heading into UFC 264 are the odds.
McGregor was more than a three-to-one favourite in January and Poirier rewarded his backers with big paydays as a win paid out in the +250 range. If you had the underdog Poirier by stoppage you cashed at a roughly +450 return.
This time around oddsmakers are viewing it as more of a tossup. Outside of McGregor winning by submission – the most unlikely outcome conceivable – everything is on the table for the rubber match.
Any time either of these athletes compete in the Octagon the fans are treated to something special, win or lose, and that should hold true at UFC 264.
ODDS TO WIN
Poirier to win -125, McGregor to win +105, Draw +5000
Poirier by stoppage +125, McGregor by stoppage +120
Poirier by decision +550, McGregor by decision +650
An interesting thing to note here is McGregor, despite being knocked out nearly six months ago, opened as the -140 favourite and the line has since swung in Poirier’s favour. McGregor has only closed as an underdog twice previously in his UFC career – against Jose Aldo and against Nurmagomedov.
Poirier has gone 5-0 in his last five fights where he was the betting favourite or had even odds.
WHY YOU TAKE POIRIER AT -125
He has simply been the better fighter in recent years. Poirier is 11-2 at 155 pounds since losing by KO to McGregor at 145 pounds in 2014, while McGregor’s lone victory in the UFC’s lightweight division was nearly five years ago when he embarrassed Eddie Alvarez to win the title. Poirier is also the more well-rounded fighter. This fight could be relatively even on the feet if it stays standing, especially if it gets out of the second round. Poirier has an excellent check right hook and McGregor has been vulnerable to that shot in the past in both of his fights against fellow southpaws Nate Diaz and Poirier.
Poirier has a proven edge in cardio and possesses a significant advantage if it hits the mat. Much has been made of the efficacy of the low leg kicks he landed on McGregor’s right calf at UFC 257 yet the most significant moment was his well-timed takedown in the first round. Mixing in takedown attempts will drain McGregor’s gas tank, which affects power. That is Poirier’s best chance at winning the trilogy.
WHY YOU TAKE MCGREGOR AT +105
McGregor has reportedly scaled back his pure boxing training in preparation for the trilogy bout, which is a good thing, so don’t be surprised if McGregor is an active kicker this time around. In the past, McGregor has been effective digging to the body with front kicks, keeping his opponents at bay with side kicks and controlling the cage with sweeping head kicks or spinning attacks.
An x-factor could be the crowd. Poirier defeated McGregor in a mostly-empty venue in Abu Dhabi and said he prefers fighting in a quieter setting. It will be a pro-McGregor crowd at T-Mobile Arena and we’ve all seen the former two-weight champ thrive in high-pressure situations many times in the past.
You’re not going to see McGregor at this price very often and he’s by no means a washed fighter.
The pick: McGregor
I predicted the loquacious Irish superstar would regain the lightweight belt by the end of 2021, so I’m not going to contradict myself here even though this is a tough one to call. McGregor will be more prepared for the two things that caught him off guard in January: the takedown and the low kicks.
Remember how poised and dialled in McGregor was in the first round of his rematch with Nate Diaz? That’s the McGregor I’m expecting to see early at UFC 264. Methodical, precise and calculated. I see him taking control of the centre of the Octagon, fending off most takedown attempts and eventually setting up a finishing sequence, using his kicks to set up his left hand.
PROP BET TO CONSIDER: Over 2.5 rounds
When I saw over 2.5 rounds listed at plus-money (it was initially +130, now it’s +110) I jumped all over it. Conventional wisdom says if McGregor wins he’ll likely do so early and while both fighters are capable of putting the other away quickly, the third encounter between these two could have a slightly more moderate pace.
Over 1.5 rounds is -185 chalk and under 2.5 rounds is listed at -140, which means oddsmakers are expecting the fight to end sometime in the late second or early third round.
There’s also tremendous value on a Poirier submission win or a Poirier stoppage in the third, fourth or fifth round. We know he thrives in deep waters and McGregor tends to fade. Something to consider.
PLUS-MONEY PROPS AND PARLAYS
Who can remain a top contender at 170? The co-main event sees two former welterweight title challengers, Gilbert Burns and Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson, go toe-to-toe in a clash of contrasting styles. Burns has KO power and an elite ground game but it will be difficult for him to close the distance on Thompson. This matchup screams Wonderboy by decision at +150.
A rising talent at middleweight: Dricus du Plessis still has much to prove at the UFC level but the 15-2 South African has tons of offensive weapons and finishing power. He faces a tall task in Trevin Giles but du Plessis inside the distance at +275 is something I’m eyeing.
A coward’s parlay: You take the four heaviest favourites on the card – Sean O’Malley, Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Ilia Topuria, Max Griffin – and lump them together for a +204 return.
‘Sugar’ Sean is the night’s heaviest favourite at -900 after his original opponent, Louis Smolka, dropped out. The rising star is taking on a short-notice opponent making his UFC debut. The UFC isn’t feeding O’Malley a tomato can but Kris Moutinho could be in for a rough night.
Kazakhstan’s Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-350) has lost two in a row to solid competition and Jerome Rivera has not yet proven his is a UFC-calibre fighter. As long as 10-0 Ilia Topuria (-240) can avoid playing footsie with ground wizard and leg lock specialist Ryan Hall, he should outclass Hall. Carlos Condit is among my all-time favourite fighters yet I feel at this stage of his career he’s outmatched by Griffin (-200).
Will the dogs be barking? There’s plenty of potential at UFC 264 with a handful of close matchups. Former NFL star Greg Hardy returns for his ninth UFC appearance since 2019. Say what you will about his checkered past, Hardy has shown improvement in the cage and may be the more well-rounded fighter despite still being relatively green in the sport. As long as Hardy doesn’t merely trade hands with Tai Tuivasa, I like his chances at +115.
Another underdog I’m targeting is Hu Yaozong at +110 against Alen Amedovski. Both men are fighting to keep their spot on the UFC roster and I side with Yaozong, the younger fighter dropping down to middleweight from light-heavyweight.
If you could lay a prop bet down on Fight of the Night I’d go all in on Niko Price vs. Michel Pereira, which could end up being pure insanity.
Here’s a look at the full UFC 264 lineup.
MAIN CARD
— Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
— Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson
— Tai Tuivasa vs. Greg Hardy
— Irene Aldana vs. Yana Kunitskaya
— Sean O’Malley vs. Kris Moutinho
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin
— Niko Price vs. Michel Pereira
— Ryan Hall vs. Ilia Topuria
— Trevin Giles vs. Dricus du Plessis
— Jennifer Maia vs. Jessica Eye
— Omari Akhmedov vs. Brad Tavares
— Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Jerome Rivera
— Hu Yaozong vs. Alen Amedovski
All listed odds via Bodog as of Friday evening
