Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
The wait is nearly over. An anticipated middleweight championship grudge match between defending undisputed champion Dricus Du Plessis and former longtime titleholder Israel Adesanya is set for this weekend’s main event at UFC 305 and mixed martial arts fans are already on the edge of their collective seats.
Emotions boiled over at Friday’s press conference after months of building hype as both fighters went back and forth on the microphones in the hours prior to their final weight cuts down to 185 pounds.
Will personal animosity be a factor on Saturday (Sunday morning in Perth, Australia)? Or will both headliners be all business performing in front of what should be a raucous crowd at RAC Arena.
UFC 305 has plenty to offer fight fans beyond the anticipated main event.
A flyweight co-main event pits Perth’s own Steve Erceg against New Zealand’s Kai Kara-France, Dan Hooker looks to take standout lightweight Mateusz Gamrot’s No. 5 spot in the 155-pound rankings, plus heavyweight knockout artists Tai Tuivasa and Jairzinho Rozenstruik are expected to throw hands until somebody falls.
Our trio of MMA prognosticators are coming off a three-headed parlay hit at last week’s Fight Night event, not to mention they’ve hit a dart throw in three of the past five events.
MAIN CARD
— Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
— Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
— Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker
— Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
— Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker
— Joshua Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos
— Casey O’Neill vs. Luana Santos
— Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns
— Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes
— Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn
— Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesús Santos Aguilar
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Starts Round 2 -650 (FanDuel)
This is not the safest bet, but I think that this championship bout entering the second round is very likely. In most situations for a middleweight fight, this would not be a pick that I would consider safe, but with this fight scheduled for five rounds and the methodical approach that Adesanya typically has, I feel confident that we see a second round.
Dan: Tuivasa v Rozenstruik does not go the distance -625 (BetRivers)
I don’t see any MMA evidence that indicates this one goes the distance. As of late, both guys have a tendency to go for the finish or lose trying. If they stick to form, someone is getting their hand raised early.
Mike: Tom Nolan to win outright -1115 (BetRivers)
Nolan will need to be careful early but the young Aussie is being set up for a showcase win in front of the home crowd in what could be Reyes’s final UFC appearance if he loses again and the odds reflect. Nolan is one of the biggest moneyline favourites of the year and looked far more poised in his May victory after losing his UFC debut in January in just 63 seconds when he fought an experienced fighter with plenty of knockouts on his résumé. I typically prefer shorter odds for a more profitable number but the priority this week is getting back up to .500 this week!
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -218 (to win: $45.84)
2024 Record: 13-14 (current streak: W1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$182.86
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Steve Erceg -155 (Caesars)
Erceg really impressed me against Alexandre Pantoja and I feel like Erceg can beat just about any flyweight in a three round fight. He will be fighting in front of his home crowd and I am surprised that he is not a bigger favourite against a returning Kara France.
Dan: Steve Erceg -155 (Caesars)
With all due respect to Kai Kara-France, I think there is no way he gets past Steve Erceg in this one. Call it recency bias if you like, but Erceg went five rounds with the best the division had to offer the last time out. Prior to that he was mowing down lesser-known opposition. Kata-France has lost two in a row against notable opposition and despite being a veteran of the sport, seeds of self-doubt can be difficult to shake off. Give me Erceg for the win here.
Mike: Israel Adesanya -115 (FanDuel)
Adesanya opened as a much wider favourite, is coming off a layoff of nearly a full year, only has one victory since 2022, and the former champion was clearly emotional at Friday’s press conference. It makes sense why money is coming in on DDP. If I eliminate all the distractions and narratives and simply look at the Xs and Os of this style matchup, trusting Adesanya’s focus is not compromised, ultimately I see it being mostly a striking match but unlike at UFC 293 Adesanya won’t be on his back foot the entire time and will find his openings to land damaging offence. If either fighter gets a highlight KO I also lean towards it being Izzy.
Aaron’s favourite record: 16-11
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$39.72
Dan’s favourite record: 19-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$416.09
Mike’s favourite record: 17-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$149.88
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Jesus Aguilar +195 (BetOnline)
Nicoll is the hyped hometown prospect entering this fight, but I have been very impressed with Aguilar in his recent outings and he continues to slide under the radar in a talent laden flyweight division.
Dan: Dricus Du Plessis +110 (DraftKings)
No doubting that Israel Adesanya is one of the best to ever do it. But DDP is the champ for a reason. Anytime you get a champion at plus money (in any sport!) pounce on it. Don’t forget DDP pried the title away from Sean Strickland in January, the same guy that beat Adesanya. A successful title defence is not out of the realm of possibility here.
Mike: Dan Hooker +290 (BetRivers)
Hooker has had trouble getting past the best wrestlers in the lightweight division and Gamrot is exactly that. Something tells me Gamrot won’t be able to run Hooker over the way Islam Makhachev and Michael Chandler have in the past though. We haven’t seen Hooker fight in more than a year but iron sharpens iron and Hooker’s City Kickboxing teammates are all over the UFC 305 lineup. At this number I’ve got no issue taking a chance on the popular New Zealander to halt Gamrot’s momentum the way Beneil Dariush did two years ago.
Aaron’s underdog record: 9-18
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$525
Dan’s underdog record: 8-19
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$877
Mike’s underdog record: 11-16
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$185
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Luana Santos wins by submission +550 (BetOnline)
Santos has proven to be a phenomenal up and coming prospect and she faces Casey O’Neill, herself considered a top prospect for a time. O’Neill has battled injuries and enters on a two fight losing streak. While submitting O’Neill will be a tall order, the continued growth of Santos has shown she is capable.
Dan: Herbert Burns +550 (Bet MGM)
Discount Herbert Burns in this one at your peril. Yes, he hasn’t one in a really long time. But if he is able to tie up Jenkins for three rounds there is a good chance that he just about nicks this one on scorecards. A low risk, high reward bet is just sitting there. Worth a responsible sprinkle in my opinion.
Mike: Steve Erceg wins by split or majority decision +550 (Bodog)
The co-main event is an amazing style matchup at flyweight that should contend for Fight of the Night. The odds project this three-round bout will be going the distance and even though both 125-pounds have fine finishing ability it is likely to see the scorecards. Kara-France’s split or majority decision odds are +900 and I was wavering between the two numbers. While Kara-France is a live dog here in my mind, and may actually be the more versatile striker, Erceg’s presumed advantages in the grappling departments could be the difference in a close round or two.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 4-22-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$100
Dan’s dart throw record: 2-25
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,260
Mike’s dart throw record: 5-21-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,750
(Betting odds above submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)
