Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili will make history on Saturday as the first live sporting event held inside the renowned Sphere in Las Vegas.
The event is headlined by a men’s bantamweight title fight between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili, plus the first women’s championship trilogy bout in UFC history when current women’s flyweight champ Alexa Grasso defends her belt against former titleholder Valentina Shevchenko.
A fan-friendly featherweight fight between two-time title challenger Brian Ortega and streaking contender Diego Lopes is also featured on a card that carries a theme of celebrating Mexico’s contribution to combat sports. Eight of the 10 scheduled bouts feature a Mexican-born athlete.
The second annual Noche UFC event will also utilize a new lighting system not previously used during a UFC card and there will be a variety of unique visuals incorporated into both the in-house production and the UFC 306 pay-per-view broadcast.
Our panel of prognosticators finally climbed back to .500 for their three-headed parlay after last weekend’s Fight Night event and Aaron hit his fifth dart throw pick of the year.
MAIN CARD
— Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili (for men’s bantamweight title)
— Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko (for women’s flyweight title)
— Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
— Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics
— Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode’ Osbourne
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont
— Manuel Torres vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
— Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza
— Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van
— Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng
(Betting odds below via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to fights)
CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont Goes to a Decision -400
Both Dumont and Aldana are tough and durable and I expect that this fight goes to the scorecards. I expect that Dumont does whatever it takes to slow Aldana down and get the fight to the ground where she is known for controlling her opponents.
Dan: Raul Rosas Jr. to win outright -900
I don’t think I really need to justify this selection. Rosas is a superstar in the making and with all due respect to his opponent, I think this is the safest pick on the card. Factor in the grandeur of the occasion and the pro-Rosas crowd, it’s difficult to envision any other scenario. Looking forward to the post-fight Chiwiwis.
Mike: Josh Van to win outright -250
Don’t love that van was knocked out pretty badly only two months ago but I still view the young flyweight as a future contender and I think he gets back on track here with a nice win on the prelims. Full disclosure it was wither Van or Yazmin Jauregui at -500 so I went for a more valuable, riskier parlay piece. We’ll know before the main card whether that was a mistake.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -106 (to win: $94.45)
2024 Record: 15-15 (current streak: W2)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$148.98
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Alexa Grasso -140
I have seen enough in Grasso’s two bouts with Shevchenko to take her at this price. In the first fight, she was able to find an opening and submit Shevchenko and while the second fight had a head scratching scorecard that cost Shevchenko the fight, I had it scored for Grasso. With Shevchenko now at 36 years old, an age that has not been kind to fighters in the lighter weight classes, I strongly lean Grasso in this trilogy fight.
Dan: Ronaldo Rodriguez -150
I was really impressed by Ronaldo Rodriguez in his UFC debut win over Denys Bondar. Another no-frills submission win could be on the cards here again, but an outright win at -150 is great value. Ode Osbourne has lost three of his last four fights and is facing a young and hungry prospect who carries the pride of a nation on his shoulders on Mexican Independence Day weekend.
Mike: Alexa Grasso -140
Although, Shevchenko has won more rounds than Grasso during the totality of their rivalry thus far both officially and on my personal scorecards, Grasso has proven to be the more dangerous and damaging striker when these two are standing across from one another. Shevchenko is well-rounded but her control time is the primary reason she was ahead on the scorecards heading into that disputed final round of the rematch one year ago. I don’t see Shevchenko accruing as much ground control time in the trilogy bout as she did in the first two meetings so therefore I give Grasso the overall edge in an ultra-close rivalry. Grasso is live for a knockout, decision and we’ve already seen her ability submit the former champ.
Aaron’s favourite record: 16-14
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$339.72
Dan’s favourite record: 20-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$268.72
Mike’s favourite record: 18-11-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$102.51
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Ignacio Bahamondes +120
“La Jaula” opened as a -175 favourite and has been bet down to an underdog for reasons that I cannot comprehend. While Torres has looked impressive, I think that Bahamondes has an edge in striker vs. striker matchups, which is what I expect this to be. He will have a sizeable height advantage like usual and had gotten better and utilizing his range.
Dan: Brian Ortega +165
When Brian Ortega is at the top of his game, I believe he is elite. If he shows up both physically and mentally fit on Saturday, I think he wins this fight. His track record tells us it’s entirely possible. Neither fighter has ever competed in a venue like the Sphere. Ortega has shown the ability to make in-fight adjustments to pull out wins in the past. I think he will adjust to the environment quicker and remind everyone to never count out T-City.
Mike: Brian Ortega +165
Totally makes sense why Lopes is the chalk pick here but the value is fully on the Ortega side with a full camp to prepare for the cut to 145 pounds this time around. If he can avoid getting bombarded with power punches in the opening round, the former title challenger has the tools to settle down the action and impose his top game grappling skills on his younger opponent who at times settles for bottom position, which isn’t something you want to do with Ortega who’s also a dangerous knockout artist on the feet.
Aaron’s underdog record: 11-19
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$275
Dan’s underdog record: 9-21
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$967
Mike’s underdog record: 12-18
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$95
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Aoriqileng to win outright +650
Rosas Jr. is a hot prospect with a very clear path to victory, which is to get the fight to the ground and find a submission against a fighter who typically has porous takedown defence. However, Aoriqileng will have a striking advantage and will have hopefully worked on his takedown defence enough to provide his best winning conditions. I believe Rosas should certainly be favoured here, but this line is far too wide.
Dan: Brian Ortega by submission +700
I think the wily veteran will take some damage in this one, but at some point he is more than capable of snatching a limb from a potentially overzealous Diego Lopes. If Ortega pulls this off, it’s over. Just rewatch the Yair Rodriguez fight. At +700 odds, why not?
Mike: Sean O’Malley to win by split or majority decision +1200
Oddsmakers have Dvalishvili as the likely winner if this bout sees the scorecards, which means there’s more value on the current champ if we end up seeing a close decision – something I view as entirely within the realm of possibility. O’Malley’s best path to victory is finding the knockout shot (Dvalishvili has been dropped multiple times with counter left hands during his winning streak, wink wink) but we know he can go five rounds and his ground game is underrated so I don’t necessarily think it’s as simple as if Merab can get the champ to the ground he’ll be stuck there.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 5-24-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$250
Dan’s dart throw record: 3-27
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$950
Mike’s dart throw record: 5-24-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,450
