SUNRISE, Fla. — In his first run to a Stanley Cup Final as a head coach, Kris Knoblauch will be remembered for having the courage to tinker with his lineup, and for pushing the right buttons at an impressive rate.
There’s only one problem: He’s in a Stanley Cup Final now, trailing 1-0. The toughest decisions still lie ahead.
The Darnell Nurse–Cody Ceci pairing landed in Knoblauch’s lap on the day between Games 1 and 2 like a Black Friday treadmill returned to Canadian Tire. “Fix this,” Oilers fans are saying of a pairing that hasn’t worked so well this season, was broken up, but to which Knoblauch returned in Game 1.
Of course, they were on the ice for both five-on-five goals against Saturday, the second one featuring a lost puck battle by Ceci and a centring pass that travelled through Nurse’s legs on the way to the goal scorer.
“Goes through my wickets,” Nurse said post-game. “I’ve got to get a piece of it.”
Up front, it’s time to wonder where — and if — Evander Kane should be playing, after an in-game demotion off of Leon Draisaitl’s wing in Game 1, and an eight-game goalless drought over which he’s chipped in just one lonely assist.
Let’s start with the Nurse-Ceci pair.
“I looked at last night’s game and they were out there for two goals against,” Knoblauch began at his off-day press conference Sunday. “Both of them were involved in two scoring chances against and both of them were scored against. I guess if you look at actual goals scored for and against, it’s not favourable.
“The expected goals for and against don’t paint the same picture at all. Completely different.”
According to Sportlogiq, that pairing was on the positive side of the expected goals count in Game 1, despite their minus-2 evening. In the 2024 playoffs, the Nurse-Ceci pair is running a 44.6 per cent expected goals percentage, per Sportlogiq.
Considering they seldom play with the McDavid line, that number isn’t too bad. But “not too bad” doesn’t win you a Cup.
The Oilers need these two veterans not just to tread water, but to be good.
Sure, this pair has had an extremely unlucky playoffs, filled with bad bounces, lackadaisical moments by the forwards, and seemingly being on the ice for every less-than-great goal allowed by goaltender Stuart Skinner.
But at some point, bad play begets bad luck.
Show me a goalie who always gets bad bounces and I’ll show you a bad goalie. Show me a defensive pairing that is enduring an extended period of bad luck, and I’ll show you a pairing that is trying to figure out how to eliminate that trend and simply can not.
“We’re always balancing on what’s best for those two players,” Knoblauch said. “But also what’s best for all six of our defencemen. As a coaching staff, we always have to make those decisions. (It’s) not easy, and sometimes you have to give a little to get something else.
“As for the matchup next game, yeah we haven’t made any decisions yet.”
Does Knoblauch activate Vincent Desharnais, who took a press box seat for Game 4 of the Dallas series? Does he move Philip Broberg next to Nurse, and pair Brett Kulak with Ceci?
If Knoblauch wishes to get Desharnais back into his lineup, who comes out? It won’t be Broberg, the way he’s playing. So that leaves Ceci — who has missed just three regular season games — as a possible bold move to be taken out by the coach.
Stay tuned for Monday’s morning skate on that front.
Meanwhile, Kane looks like the journey through these playoffs with his sports hernia is becoming too much.
He was credited with three hits in Game 1, and will always bring an intimidating, physical game that we like. But he hasn’t been able to practice in weeks and it shows in his puck play.
The chances of a failed Kane clear costing his team a goal are starting to be higher than him scoring one himself, leaving Knoblauch to ponder if Kane just doesn’t have what the team needs from him at this stage.
“Obviously he’s not the Evander Kane of a couple of years ago, or even when I came here (in November),” admitted Knoblauch. “He was putting up a pretty good season and obviously he had to take some time off with some injuries and maintenance days. Yeah, it’s unfortunate for any player, any time you’re battling with something, it takes away from your game.”
Knoblauch’s problem here is, who comes in?
Is a smaller forward like Derek Ryan the answer? Probably not.
Perhaps Sam Carrick comes in to centre the fourth line and Ryan McLeod moves up to play left wing on Leon Draisaitl’s line?
Kane has given what he has to give. But at some point it becomes about the team, not the teammate.
“I don’t think we’d be where we are today,” said Knoblauch. “We wouldn’t be in the Stanley Cup Final if Evander hadn’t been playing throughout the playoffs.”
